Moritz Kraemer

Biosecurity depends critically on the early identification of novel pathogens.

Our international team developed a global multi-scale model of infectious diseases to evaluate the time to detection in aircraft wastewater vs. other surveillance modalities.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...

A multi-scale model to evaluate airport wastewater surveillance and ICU genomic monitoring for pandemic preparedness https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.02.27.26347250v1

clearly written by AI

MASSIVE NEWS

Interested in developing benchmarks for infectious disease modeling?

We are recruiting a fellow @psioxford.bsky.social funded by Google Research and the Health AI team.

Bonus: collaborations between the AI teams at Google Research and DeepMind.

Deadline March 16.

my.corehr.com/pls/uoxrecru...

Non-Linear Drivers of Population Dynamics: a Nonparametric Coalescent Approach Effective population size (Ne(t)) is a fundamental parameter in population genetics and phylodynamics that quantifies genetic diversity and reveals demographic history. Coalescent-based methods enable...

Non-Linear Drivers of Population Dynamics: a Nonparametric Coalescent Approach

arxiv.org/abs/2602.06148

Frequent presymptomatic household transmission of influenza A but not influenza B virus - Nature Health Based on two waves of data collection from 748 households in Hong Kong, this analysis sheds light on the number of transmission events that occurred before manifestation of symptoms in influenza A and...

Frequent presymptomatic household transmission of influenza A but not influenza B virus

www.nature.com/articles/s44...

Projected impacts of climate change on malaria in Africa - Nature Projected impacts of climate change on malaria burden in Africa by 2050 highlight the urgent need for climate-resilient malaria control strategies and robust emergency response systems to safeguard pr...

Projected impacts of climate change on malaria in Africa

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Can H5N1 avian influenza in dairy cattle be contained in the US? The emergence and sustained spread of H5N1 in US dairy cattle since 2024 have demonstrated that highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is capable of…

Can H5N1 avian influenza in dairy cattle be contained in the US?

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

If you want to learn about viral sequencing and real-time analysis from the absolute best, consider applying here: artic.network/workshops/ac...

Application deadline 10 January 2026: survey.ug.edu.gh/surveys/?s=W...

The revision of this work has now been approved: wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/10-...

📢 Thrilled to see that our work on chikungunya virus (CHIKV) epidemiology in Brazil is out in @thelancetinfdis.bsky.social 🧵

we've missed you

Northward expansion of Aedes albopictus-associated arbovirus transmission risk in Europe Since 2007, outbreaks of chikungunya and dengue have become increasingly frequent and large scale in Europe. The frequency and size of these episodes suggest a concerning trend. In 2025 alone, there h...

Northward expansion of Aedes albopictus-associated arbovirus transmission risk in Europe

www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

Multi-model approach to understand and predict past and future dengue epidemic dynamics

royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/...

Brilliant work by @cathalmills.bsky.social + many others

Rt measures how quickly a pathogen spreads and was central to understanding and controlling COVID-19. In our latest work, we extend this concept to vector-borne diseases, developing a new, renewal equation–based framework that links infection dynamics in humans and vectors.
doi.org/10.1111/2041...

From January to 8 October 2025, France (n = 700) and Italy (n = 353) have reported CHIKV cases widely across their territories. The increase in clusters coincides with global outbreaks and temperature anomalies in Europe.

Active clusters shown here:
gis.ecdc.europa.eu/portal/apps/...

The role of climate variability in shaping the 2023/24 outbreak of Dengue in Brazil (📉 in north regions; 📈 in southern populous regions).

Brazil recorded the largest outbreak on record which coincided with the warmest ever reported temperatures in the Americas.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...

Chikungunya, continuano i prelievi ad accesso libero a Carpi, oltre 140 le persone che si sono presentate per effettuare il test - AUSL Modena Sui casi complessivi, l’80% non è più considerato a rischio trasmissione del virus. Sui social dell’Ausl di Modena un video dedicato all’uso corretto dei repellenti, come sceglierli e applicarli anche...

Chikungunya outbreak in northern Italy (Modena, Carpi, San Prospero, Concordia sulla Secchia, and Soliera) with over 104 detected and confirmed autochthonous transmissions: www.ausl.mo.it/chikungunya-...

382 locally acquired cases of chikungunya in France in 2025 alone. Total of just under 1000 imported cases from outbreaks abroad.

www.santepubliquefrance.fr/maladies-et-...

Mosquito-borne viruses surge in a warming Europe Chikungunya cases break records in France; West Nile virus appears near Rome

Mosquito-borne viruses surge in a warming Europe

www.science.org/content/arti...

The 16th Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in Bulape Health Zone, Kasai, Democratic Republic of the Congo: A new spillover event from an unknown reservoir host Background The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is currently facing concurrent outbreaks including mpox, cholera and malaria (1-4). The Ministry of Public Health, DRC has declared the 16th Ebola...

Sequence data from the new Ebola outbreak in DRC suggests it is indeed a new spillover.

And just incredible to see the virus sequenced and the data publicly shared less than 24 hours after confirmation of the outbreak.
#IDsky 🧪

virological.org/t/the-16th-e...

Dengue disease severity in humans is augmented by waning Japanese encephalitis virus immunity Waning immunity to Japanese encephalitis virus was associated with increased severity of dengue disease in a cohort of patients from Nepal.

Dengue disease severity in humans is augmented by waning Japanese encephalitis virus immunity
www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

The 16th Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in Bulape Health Zone, Kasai, Democratic Republic of the Congo: A new spillover event from an unknown reservoir host Background The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is currently facing concurrent outbreaks including mpox, cholera and malaria (1-4). The Ministry of Public Health, DRC has declared the 16th Ebola...

Likely a new spillover causing the Ebola outbreak in the DRC: virological.org/t/the-16th-e...

Climate-sensitive disease data integration has been challenging due to variations in spatial & temporal resolution of inputs as well as multi-modality (satellite imagery, tabular, genomic..). We built a tool to makes it easier to perform data integration: wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/10-...

A systematic nomenclature for mpox viruses causing outbreaks with sustained human-to-human transmission

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Confermato un caso probabilmente autoctono di chikungunya A Castel San Giovanni, in località Pievetta. Le misure adottate per prevenire la diffusione

Probable autochthonous case of chikungunya reported in northern Italy: www.ausl.pc.it/it/comunicaz...

Now peer-reviewed and approved.

BEAST X for Bayesian phylogenetic, phylogeographic and phylodynamic inference - Nature Methods BEAST X advances Bayesian phylogenetic, phylogeographic and phylodynamic analysis by incorporating a broad range of complex models and leveraging advanced algorithms and techniques to boost statistica...

BEAST X for Bayesian phylogenetic, phylogeographic and phylodynamic inference

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

So proud of Dr. Joseph Tsui, whom I had the great pleasure of co-advising with Oliver Pybus, for finishing his DPhil yesterday.

Many thanks also to his examiners, Mike Osborne (Oxford Computer Science) and Jess Metcalf (Princeton Ecology/Evolution).

Sel. Pubs: shorturl.at/rPFJE & shorturl.at/gqIKI