James Laurenceson

Beijing's announcement on NYE 2025 of new trade restrictions on beef effective January 1 2026 are a reminder of ongoing trade risk, but they do not point to a fundamental deterioration in Australia-PRC economic ties, writes @j-laurenceson.bsky.social in @aunz.theconversation.com bit.ly/3YvCHls

An excerpt from a commentary piece by Frank Yuan, Adjunct Fellow, Australia-China Relations Institute, University of Technology Sydney (UTS:ACRI) in South China Sea NewsWire (January 31 2026): 'China could use the naturally semi-enclosed Bohai Sea as a submarine bastion, though the South China Sea, with its more complex terrain and noisier acoustic environment, may be better suited for this purpose. However, the South China Sea is farther away from the American mainland, potentially too far even for China's most advanced submarine-launched missiles...'

What kind of power could Beijing realistically project by controlling the South China Sea? UTS:ACRI Adjunct Fellow @yuan-frank.bsky.social discusses in South China Sea NewsWire bit.ly/4rrUNRC

Last year, iron ore prices ⬇️ by 8.4% but new
ABS data show Australia's goods trade with mainland China ⬆️ by $10.6 billion. How? China is Australia's most important market for other exports: minerals/fuels/agriculture/seafood/forestry. And imports too! Now, add around $20 billion in services trade!

Professor James Laurenceson, UTS:ACRI Director, on trade: In 2025, the doomsayers about the PRC’s economy and Australia-PRC trade relations got it wrong once again. In the first 11 months of the year, Australian goods exports to the PRC were down two percent compared with a year earlier. But that’s despite a nearly 10 percent fall in the global price of iron ore. Iron ore volumes were up by two percent. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries exports remain at record levels, while education services eclipsed their previous peak. Short-term visitor arrivals have been slower to recover after the pandemic but nonetheless returned to one million annually. Goods imports were up 11 percent with the headline being that the PRC is now Australia’s second largest source of passenger vehicles, following only Japan. Iron ore volumes might trend downwards as the PRC produces less steel, but with the overall growth forecast remaining at between four to five percent and economic complementarities remaining intact, there’s no obvious reason to expect any component of trade to take a serious dive in the coming year.

Professor James Laurenceson (@j-laurenceson.bsky.social) on trade:

PERSPECTIVES | ChAFTA at 10: A decade in review

December 20 marks the 10th anniversary of ChAFTA entering into force. @j-laurenceson.bsky.social revisits the public debate around the claimed pros and cons of ChAFTA in 2015 and assesses the outcomes in the decade that has followed bit.ly/3Y3FToe

After Canada, Trump could drag down conservatives in another election in Australia The Opposition Coalition was poised to return to power before Trump’s inauguration, but has lost support among voters worried about how their government will handle him.

"We just can’t go all in on AUKUS, all in on the United States, all in on containing China and imagine that our trade with China, which is paying for our submarines, can actually be sustained. It can’t," @j-laurenceson.bsky.social tells @nbcnews.com bit.ly/4iOIwSy

Exploring the Campbell/Doshi vision for 'pooled' capabilities ACITI was pleased to host a discussion on the Foreign Affairs article by Kurt Campbell and Rush Doshi proposing that 'likeminded' countries pool their technological, economic and military capabilities to counter China. ACITI was joined by Professor James Laurencenson and Dr Naoise McDonagh in exploring the realities the article grapples with as well as problems with what Campbell and Doshi propose.

The proposal that US attempts to counter the PRC can only be achieved through likeminded countries pooling tech, economic and military capabilities was explored by @j-laurenceson.bsky.social and Naoise McDonagh in a recent AU Centre for International Trade & Investment webinar

Watch: bit.ly/3EKHVnc

Australia ‘oversimplifies’ China research collaboration risks National security U-turn ‘cutting Australia off from knowledge creation frontier’ just as US turns its back on collaboration

"Australian universities 'underweighted' appreciation of security threats has given way to a simplistic 'culture of caution'... a forthcoming book chapter argues"

@timeshighered.bsky.social reports on a soon-to-be-published paper by @j-laurenceson.bsky.social bit.ly/3RqNt94

ACBC WA Hosts: Great Game On What does Great Power competition in today’s world mean for Australia?

For our Perth-based followers: @j-laurenceson.bsky.social will join former Ambassador Geoff Raby and Gordon Flake @perthusasia.bsky.social to discuss 'What does great power competition in today’s world mean for Australia?'. May 7, 12-2.30pm AWST, Ritz Carlton, Perth

Tickets: bit.ly/44KNCMd

Trump's tariffs and China's trade: What's next? As US–China trade tensions escalate with tariffs exceeding 100%, this timely webinar explores the implications of ongoing trade wars for China’s economy, global supply chains, and the broader Asia-Pacific region. Hosted by the Griffith Asia Institute, the discussion brings together a panel of renowned experts to unpack China’s strategic responses, potential trade spillovers into neighbouring countries, and what this all means for regional partners like Australia. Speakers include: Dan Wang – China Director, Eurasia Group Bert Hofman – Former Director, East Asia Institute (NUS) & former World Bank Country Director, China James Laurenceson – Director, Australia-China Relations Institute (UTS) Moderator: Professor Christoph Nedopil Wang, Director, Griffith Asia Institute

The implications of the ongoing trade war for the PRC's economy, global supply chains and the broader region are explored by @j-laurenceson.bsky.social, Dan Wang @eurasiagroup.net and Bert Hofman, former World Bank Country Director, China in a Griffith Asia Institute webinar.

Watch: bit.ly/42T8dLO

ABC Vote Compass data on voters' views on Australia-PRC relations is analysed by @j-laurenceson.bsky.social and discussed in the context of 2024 UTS:ACRI/BIDA Poll findings by @elenacollinson.bsky.social and Paul Burke - via @abcnewsnetau.bsky.social bit.ly/3YqC7Wu

If China had done this, there would have been uniform outrage Australia's political leaders must do better.

Following reports that countries wanting US tariff relief will be pressured to curb their trade with the PRC, @j-laurenceson.bsky.social examines the question 'Should Australia line up with the US and form an anti-China economic bloc?' in @canberratimes.bsky.social bit.ly/4lHehzN

Recordings are now available for 'ChAFTA: Assessing outcomes a decade on', featuring Trade Minister Don Farrell, former Trade Ministers Andrew Robb and Craig Emerson, columnist Glenda Korporaal, PRC Min-Counsellor Gao Feng, and @j-laurenceson.bsky.social

Video: bit.ly/42k1bzy
Audio: bit.ly/4crRDXW

‘Alarmist nonsense’: Labor and Coalition dismissed security risks over the Port of Darwin for years. What’s changed? Successive governments have reviewed the deal to lease the port to a Chinese company and found no cause for concern. Both major parties have made a sudden about-face.

Both sides of Australian politics have committed to spiking Chinese ownership of the lease to operate Darwin Port. Media reports frequently cite "defence experts" who claim its necessary to protect national security. But is it true? 👇 theconversation.com/alarmist-non...

ANALYSIS | ChAFTA: An Australian assessment of core outcomes a decade on

With ChAFTA now a decade in operation, @j-laurenceson.bsky.social provides an Australian assessment of core outcomes against a backdrop of claims by advocates and critics of the deal bit.ly/3RCdbHE

How Trump's tariffs could backfire and embolden China Trump’s sweeping new tariffs aim to protect US industry. But experts warn they could accelerate China’s economic rise and reshape global trade dynamics.

On suggestions that US tariffs may spur on tech and AI development in the PRC, "[T]his 'spurring' is already locked in," @j-laurenceson.bsky.social tells @capitalbrief.com bit.ly/3RD3CrO

On US tariffs, pleased to offer some comments from an Australian perspective to James Curran at AFR. The moves "hasten the US path towards economic irrelevance in Australia’s region". And surely no-one buys "friend-shoring" anymore? afr.com/policy/forei...

The US turn against Australia and the Asia-Pacific is about far more than tariffs. Now threatening the academic freedom of American and Australian researchers, the Q must be asked whether agreements with US institutions will now require notifying Canberra. timeshighereducation.com/news/confuci...

Ambiguous alignment: Australia navigating US–China rivalry in the post-AUKUS era - China International Strategy Review As Great Power rivalry in the Asia–Pacific has intensified, Australia has widely come to be seen as a prototypical Balancer. By lending its modest weight in support of its long-time security ally, the...

'Ambiguous alignment: Australia navigating US-China rivalry in the post-AUKUS era'

@j-laurenceson.bsky.social makes the case that post-AUKUS, Australia has not comprehensively abandoned its hedging strategy in China International Strategy Review. Open access: bit.ly/44esjSW

APPLICATIONS CLOSING SOON | China Matters-UTS:ACRI Fellowship 2025-2026

The Fellowship is an opportunity for an Australian early-career researcher in the field of China Studies, examining issues of policy relevance for Australia. Apply now: bit.ly/3DKfyVJ

Australia balances between realism and liberalism Australia’s foreign policy is navigating the balance between realist security partnerships and a steadfast commitment to liberal economic principles.

"While AU has shifted towards a more realist approach in military matters...its economic strategy continues to reflect a strong attachment to liberalism...This is evident in AU’s handling of past CN economic coercion" - @j-laurenceson.bsky.social in @eastasiaforum.bsky.social bit.ly/3RnmHhF

Australia has widely come to be seen as a prototypical IR Balancer against China, having abandoned its hedging strategy around 2017. I don't think that's right. Pleased to share my latest peer-reviewed article in China International Strategy Review. 👇
rdcu.be/efoX7

Australia balances between realism and liberalism Australia’s foreign policy is navigating the balance between realist security partnerships and a steadfast commitment to liberal economic principles.

There’s a common line that Australia always just follows the US. I hear this particularly often in China. In fact, Australia’s foreign policy is much more sophisticated than that. New in East Asia Forum👇
eastasiaforum.org/2025/03/27/a...

As we near 10 yrs since ChAFTA's signing, join @acri-uts.bsky.social & the ACBC to hear from Trade Minister Don Farrell and former trade ministers Robb & Emerson, w/ mod Glenda Korporaal. @j-laurenceson.bsky.social will also present the findings of a forthcoming analysis of the deal bit.ly/4j3ynSD

Friendly fire hits Australian universities Local universities are caught up in Donald Trump’s culture wars. But the threat is partly home-grown and self-inflicted.

"The government and the opposition are largely mute on the threat of such blatant “foreign interference” in Australian university research efforts despite their regular admonitions against any such behaviour from China". Even more so the broader USA 啦啦隊... www.afr.com/politics/fed...

On Australian industries benefiting from the PRC's trade hits on the US and Canada, "This has got nothing to do with morals or geopolitical sympathies. It’s just business," @j-laurenceson.bsky.social tells the Australian bit.ly/4bO0bYE

Apply now for the China Matters-UTS:ACRI Fellowship 2025-2026

The Fellowship is an opportunity for an Australian early-career researcher in the field of China Studies, examining issues of policy relevance for Australia. More information: bit.ly/3QPqjIY

Neither Canberra nor Australian business would try to spin the Trump administration's trade policy as a positive for Australia overall. That said, there will be some opportunities too, as Will Glasgow points out in The OZ. Happy to offer some comments. www.theaustralian.com.au/world/austra...

When China hit Australia with trade punishment in 2020, Canberra didn’t respond to stupid with stupid. But unsurprisingly, Australian public opinion towards China slumped. The same dynamic will now play out with the US. Best wishes to 🇺🇸 diplomats managing the self-inflicted fall out.

China’s Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Products Take Effect The action came in response to the higher levies on Chinese imports that President Trump announced last week.

With the US putting tariffs on Australian steel&aluminium because, apparently, they are a national security threat, it's not all bad news. With CN putting tariffs on US exports of beef & more, some AU exporters are well positioned to advance the national interest! 加油! www.nytimes.com/2025/03/10/b...