Unofficial final results in the New Hampshire #HDCarroll7 (Trump+9) special election:
Bobbi Boudman (D)- 51.9%
Dale Fincher (R)- 48.1%
This would be a 13 point overperformance from 2024 and the third Democratic state legislative flip of 2026!
Final results in the Georgia #SD53 (Trump+58) special election:
Lanny Thomas (R)- 38.7%
Jack Zibluk (D)- 27%
Denise Burns (R)- 20.9%
Blake Elsberry (R)- 13.4%
Thomas & Zibluk advance to a runoff, with Zibluk's 27% being a seven-point overperformance from Kamala Harris here.
Yeah Landrigan is like New Hampshire's equivalent of Jon Ralston in Nevada
It appears the Democrats have flipped #HDCarroll7! This was a Trump+9 district!
Interesting first results in the New Hampshire #HDCarroll7 special election:
Dale Fincher (R)- 52.6%
Bobbi Boudman (D)- 47.4%
These are results from the town of Ossipee, which backed Trump by 27 points!
With all of the early vote reporting in the #GA14 (Trump+37) special election:
Shawn Harris (D)- 43.4%
Clay Fuller (R)- 32.3%
Colton Moore (R)- 8.8%
14 Others- 15.5%
This one is almost certainly going to a runoff, but great start for the Dems in NW Georgia.
Here are the favorability ratings for some of the more notable candidates.
Laura Fine at 50% unfavorable opinion among Democrats is honestly one of the worst performances I've seen from a politician among their own party. Literally almost Chuck Schumer among Democrats numbers
New poll of the #IL09 Democratic primary courtesy of the Evanston Roundtable and Public Policy Polling:
Daniel Biss- 24%
Kat Abughazaleh- 20%
Laura Fine- 14%
Mike Simmons- 10%
Phil Andrew- 7%
Bushra Amiwala- 6%
Undecided- 17%
Joking, but there have already been reports of five inch hail some parts south of Chicago
Me checking election results tonight as 20 inch hail and tornadoes hit Chicago
@the-downballot.com had a good rundown on it in their Morning Digest today
It's special election night in New Hampshire! The Democrats are hoping to flip #HDCarroll8, a Trump+9 district in southern Carroll County.
Normally, it's a reliably Republican district, but the Dems have been overperforming pretty strongly in special elections as of late.
Remember Tiffany Henyard? The embattled Mayor of a Chicago suburb that pretty much defrauded the city? She lost re-election in 2025 and moved out of the state shortly thereafter.
She landed in Georgia, became a Republican, and is now running for Fulton County Commissioner!
wgntv.com/news/wgn-inv...
No, this is assuming an Ossoff 3-5 point win.
Problem for legislative Democrats is that downballot Republicans tend to run ahead of the ticket.
And here it is in chart form.
I'm probably being bearish on the Georgia Dems here, but the opportunity for the floor to drop out on the Georgia GOP is very real and the State House could be winnable for the Dems.
The Senate? That's way too gerrymandered to flip though.
Here are my first sets of ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Georgia.
The Republicans currently start off as a favorite to regain a Trump+12 seat they lost in a special election, but the Dems have a bunch of opportunities in suburban Atlanta to make gains.
COMING TONIGHT: The launch of my first set of ratings for this year's state legislative elections in Georgia!
Can the Democrats finally break through on the state legislative level? Or will gerrymandered maps keep the Republican advantage in Atlanta?
Overall, the national environment still looks very favorable for the Democrats. The Republicans haven't really done much to change my baseline assumption of this being a D+6-8 year.
Coming this week, ratings launches in Georgia, Montana, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, & Oregon!
TEXAS:
The final state I'll cover today only sees two districts change their ratings (HD-35 & HD-41 in the Rio Grande Valley). Both are now more likely to stay in the Democratic column.
Could see more districts get on the board if Paxton beats Cornyn in the runoff.
NORTH CAROLINA:
I'll be the first to admit that my first ratings for North Carolina were too bearish on the Democrats. With the combination of conservadems losing their primaries and a favorable environment, Governor Stein's veto power looks pretty safe after 2026.
ARKANSAS:
The Democrats did flip HD-70 in suburban Little Rock, which was already Lean D. With the flip, it goes to Likely D for November. Republicans still very very likely to hold on to their supermajorities
SLEW RATINGS UPDATE THREAD: Arkansas, North Carolina, & Texas held their primaries last week, which means that it's time to update some state legislative ratings! (1/???)
He needs to post a Kalshi market to really get his point across here
I don't believe so
State Representative Deb Conroy made history in 2022 when she became the DuPage County Board President.
Not only did she become the first Democratic County Board President in this suburban Chicago county in over 75 years, she also became the first woman to ever hold the job!
Yeah he was the token Republican that election twitter centrists liked
Magaziner winning was so fun just for that reason
Great ad from Juliana Stratton, finally someone making fun of the whole "Just Call Me Raja!" shtick that's been invading Chicago airwaves around election time for the last few cycles
Illinois Lt. Gov/US Senate hopeful Juliana Stratton got her political career started in 2016, when she unseated Democratic incumbent Ken Dunkin in the #HD05 primary.
Dunkin had infuriated pretty much every Democrat in Illinois by voting with Bruce Rauner, so Stratton won by 36!
The Democrats notched their second special state legislative election flip of the year on Tuesday when they flipped Arkansas's #HD70.
This Harris+2 seat in the northern Little Rock suburbs went to Democrat Alex Holladay by 15 points!
