Fore more details and background, check out our report:
www.crisisgroup.org/rpt/asia-pac...
11.03.2026 07:00
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Fore more details and background, check out our report:
www.crisisgroup.org/rpt/asia-pac...
With less than 3 years left, the Marcos admin must act fast to steady the Bangsamoro peace process.
For now, the odds favour an uneasy, imperfect peace over a return to war.
But absent urgent action, the tenuous calm in the Bangsamoro risks giving way to renewed instability.
To prevent further setbacks, the two parties should deepen dialogue and reach consensus on how to finish disarming former rebels and rehabilitating their communities, while the ex-rebel movement should strive to bridge internal differences so as to ward off the threat of a split.
Important provisions of the 2014 accord related to disarmament and socio-economic development remain unfulfilled, straining relations with Manila.
Moreover, following the change in the transitional authority’s leadership, the MILF has been struggling to maintain cohesion.
While peace in the region has largely held, the process faces major challenges.
At the helm of a transitional administration since 2019, the former MILF insurgents delivered modest peace dividends, but they continue to grapple with political instability and flare-ups of violence.
After being delayed several times, parliamentary polls may finally take place in the newly created Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in 2026.
The polls will complete the political track foreseen by the agreement signed in 2014 by the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.
The peace process in the Bangsamoro, in the southern Philippines, is at a critical stage.
Our report draws on field research in Maguindanao, Lanao, Sulu, Davao, Zamboanga and Manila, conducted between June 2023 and February 2026.
It presents the current state of play in the southern Philippines.
More challenges ahead in the Bangsamoro peace process as the Chairman of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, and presumably the Central Committee, question the redistricting bill a few days ago.
The military regime that seized power in 2021, driving Myanmar into all-out civil war, has gained the upper hand after a period in which rebels looked ascendant. But the war is far from over. www.crisisgroup.org/visual-expla...
opinion.inquirer.net/188798/a-rea...
"We are seeing that some sectors in the regional government, especially the appointed ones, are setting their sights on an extended term until the next presidential election in 2028."
“Trump had his own agenda, it was not the same agenda as the opposition leadership. So for many people this is going to mean a great deal of heart searching. They're going to have to acknowledge that Trump really is not working for them, he's working for himself.”
www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...
🇻🇪 “From what I’m seeing so far…this was an operation to remove Maduro from power – but it’s not regime change. The regime remains in power.”
@philgunson.bsky.social speaks to @theguardian.com on today’s unfolding events in Venezuela.
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
On 18 December, Indonesia named and launched its first domestically built Merah Putih-class frigate, KRI Balaputradewa (322). This marked a major milestone in the country’s naval modernisation and defence-industrial development 🇮🇩
By @fmalufti.bsky.social
www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...
PH military press statement interestingly said they only monitored 50 local fighters.
“A new book examines Russia's decade-long engagement with the region and finds more rhetoric than real influence” Read Georgi Engelbrecht in The Interpreter.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/great-aspirations-examining-russia-s-role-southeast-asia
Sharing a short discussion paper in this monograph released by UP CIDS on navigating multiple contesting land claims under a peace deal. Nothing new for communities confronting these painful questions for decades, but one of the many difficult conversations needed. Download: lnkd.in/gQu5yhqR
✍️NEW OP-ED | The Philippines’ Defense Posture in Troubled Waters
To navigate today’s turbulent geopolitics, the country must speed up defense upgrades with greater resolve and redouble its diplomatic efforts, writes @duriandiaries.bsky.social.
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
Looks like Pynchon is having a moment. #pynchon #lot49 #iykyk
news.usni.org/2025/10/31/u...
"While the size and scope of Task Force Philippines is unclear, the initiative follows the previously established Task Force Ayungin."
Bangsamoro's regional government statement on the peace agreement signed 13 years ago.
🎊 30 years ago, @crisisgroup.org was born from the international community’s failure to prevent war in Bosnia.
Last weekend, we returned to Sarajevo - where it all began - for our board meeting, joined by every past president.
Here’s to the next 30 years of peacebuilding.
US and China roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea – Reuters: ‘China said it had started to collect the special charges on U.S.-owned, operated, built, or flagged vessels but clarified that Chinese-built ships would be exempted from the levies.’
Today would have been Bangsamoro's first parliamentary election.
The polls, however, have been postponed.
I recorded this podcast a few week ago before this latest plot twist:
open.spotify.com/episode/12uS...
Watch the recording from the discussion about #Philippines #defence Modernisation & 🇵🇭 -🇺🇸 #alliance
www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9lq...
www.crisisgroup.org/how-we-work/...
ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort
25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC
Registration:
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort
25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC
w/ Lindsey W. Ford, Rommel Jude Ong, @duriandiaries.bsky.social, and @le2huong.bsky.social.
Registration ⬇️
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
A good thread for anyone interested in Philippine geopolitics.
9. Read more in our @crisisgroup.org report on the Philippine defence modernisation:
www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...
