@johnspringford
Economist and occasional politics dabbler. Working on a project to improve labour markets. Associate fellow, Centre for European Reform. Visiting fellow, Institute for Policy Research, Bath University.
I have been following this debate with some interest, and let me try to set out what Tim is saying here. If a heat pump costs £15k and lasts 15 years and over its lifetime saves 15*0.8tCO2e=12tCO2e then the capex per tonne is about £1,250.
In contrast to Labour's accusations of a Conservative "open borders experiment", @jdportes.bsky.social & @johnspringford.bsky.social find that #Brexit and the new immigration regime raised the number of foreign-born workers in the UK by a modest 200,000.
New @CER_EU insight: buff.ly/u1TuLFx
New research by me @jdportes.bsky.social: we find that the end of free movement and the new immigration regime rather modestly raised the number of foreign-born workers in Britain – by about 200,000 in 2024. Thread. www.cer.eu/insights/imp...
“Sectarianism is certainly an issue that needs tackling… Nevertheless, much of the debate has itself been reactionary and sectarian… Those who decry division are too often the ones promoting it.” My @theobserveruk.bsky.social column: observer.co.uk/news/columni...
Even they admit even I admit things
I always like these "evens". Sometimes I also get an "admit".
Ending free movement "led to a modest rise in the number of foreign born workers in the UK, but a dramatic shift in their countries of origin."
💥 New analysis from @jdportes.bsky.social & @johnspringford.bsky.social on the impact of Brexit on immigration to the UK
🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/the-impact-o...
How much did #Brexit affect immigration to the UK?
@jdportes.bsky.social and @johnspringford.bsky.social estimate that it made a modest difference to overall numbers but led to a dramatic shift in origin in a new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight.
Read here: buff.ly/u1TuLFx
And consequently quite dramatically increased the number of in-country asylum claims by visa-holders, I think.
There's a strong rationale for rules, not discretion, both to protect individuals from the tyranny of the majority and to smooth flows. One of the benefits of EU membership was the check on domestic government.
The impact of Brexit on UK immigration - new research by @johnspringford.bsky.social & me for @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social & @ukandeu.bsky.social
Brexit
a) reduced EU-origin employees by 785K (2.3% of workforce)
b) increased non-EU origin employees by 992K (2.95%)
www.cer.eu/insights/imp...
Since the UK immigration has been similar to other receiving countries in Europe, control has so far made little difference to overall numbers. Ceding control would bring large economic benefits. The trade-off is the same as it always was.
EU free movement also opens up a trade policy that is less damaging to the economy. It will be one of the demands the EU will make for any significant participation in the single market.
EU free movement offers a system in which more individuals make decisions, rather than bureaucrats. Officials have to use the blunt instrument of visa eligibility to control flows.
Leaving the EU has not resolved the dilemma facing all European governments – between maintaining employment as societies age and political pressure to reduce immigration.
We appear to be entering a bust, partly because the UK labour market is cooling, and partly because successive governments have significantly tightened the system. That will curb GDP growth and tax revenues. Labour market problems might lead governments to liberalise the regime again.
My thoughts on the implications (not necessarily Jonathan’s). Taking back control of migration hasn’t made much difference to the numbers, so far. But it does seem to make immigration more volatile, as politicians adjust visa eligibility under political pressure.
Because many other Western European countries also had a big rise in labour demand after the pandemic, the countries whose trends most matched the UK’s in the 2010s also had big rises in foreign-born workers. But more came from the EU, and fewer from the rest of the world.
We used a similar method to the ‘doppelgänger’ studies estimating the impact of Brexit on GDP. We compared HMRC data on foreign-born employees to EU-15 and EEA countries whose trends in foreign-born employment most closely matched the UK’s in the 2010s.
The net effect was small – 207,000 more foreign-born workers, or 0.6 per cent of the labour force.
The new migration regime raised non-EU born workers by about 992,000, or 2.95 per cent of the labour force.
There was a large change in the origin of new foreign-born workers. By 2024, Brexit had reduced EU-born workers by about 785,000, or 2.3 per cent of the labour force.
We estimated the impact of the end of free movement on the number of EU-born workers in Britain, and the new immigration system on workers born in the rest of the world.
After the Johnson government implemented the new regime, which made it easier for non-EU workers to get visas, net migration rose to a peak of over 900,000 in 2023, and Keir Starmer has accused the Conservatives of running an “open borders experiment”.
New research by me @jdportes.bsky.social: we find that the end of free movement and the new immigration regime rather modestly raised the number of foreign-born workers in Britain – by about 200,000 in 2024. Thread. www.cer.eu/insights/imp...
A tale as old as time
This week’s column - here we go again with another cost shock; as they become more common, given fractured geopolitics + climate crisis, we’re going to have to find new approaches besides whacking up interest rates:
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
Those who want Britain to take part in the bombing should engage with this: how will the new 'capture or assassinate' doctrine improve Britain's security? Will they always agree with the US on which regimes to decapitate? And will taking part encourage the US to do more decapitations?
I don't think it's impossible to communicate to the American people that, even if you think he got it right this time, normalising the President unilaterally deciding which foreign leader lives or dies places more faith in their judgement of both justice and consequences than is wise.
