This is far too plausible for comfort.
13.03.2026 15:24
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This is far too plausible for comfort.
The Strait of Hormuz is open for transit
Broadly speaking, the big stories in inflation over the past year:
1)
Shelter disinflation proceeded so favorably last year that it is now running *below* core non-housing services (unusual) and also below the pre-pandemic run rate. Shelter dis-inflation was widely expected in 2023.
"and other than that, Mr. Hegseth, how is the Strait?"
You know that Mike Tyson quote, “Everyone has a plan until they’re punched in the face”?
Well sometimes there isn’t even a plan.
I mean, in fairness I dont think he's getting his cuts even in 6 days
😬😬
In the short and maybe medium run but the implications for midterms and the next election are also potentially very large
Starting to wonder whether a scenario in which the oil price remains $90-100/bbl for an extended period might be the worst one here. High enough to do economic damage, not high enough for the US administration to seek a quick resolution.
Probably just for the clicks innit?
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott suggested this morning that he had decided not to compel Fed Chair Jay Powell to produce his regular, Q1 monetary policy testimony, due to the fallout from the DOJ probe
"He is more concerned about the criminal proceeding, and I get that," Scott told CNBC
Ofc Scott Aaronson knew better. You can tell he's a good one from a mile away.
The Iran war should be a lesson for Keir Starmer's Government. If you take a clear line on an issue where the public agree with you then it's your opponents who end up having to back down, not you
Carmen Sandiego from the 90s cartoon
Happy International Women's Day to the original International Woman
Newly released footage shows an ICE agent killing Rubin Ray Martinez, 23, in his car in Texas.
"He was shot at point-blank range through his side window by an ICE agent who was in no danger."
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Figure 4. Price changes in 2025 by country of origin This is a bar chart showing monthly 12-month percent changes in the country-specific Numerator Fisher Price Indices for January through December 2025. The y-axis shows percent values ranging from approximately -1 to 8.5 percent. The chart displays five variables: USA (blue bars), Canada (green bars), Mexico (yellow bars), China (purple bars), and Others (orange bars). The data reveals a pattern of increasing price changes throughout the year, particularly for China and the Others category. In January and February, most countries show modest changes between -0.5 and 1 percent, with some negative values. From March through July, price changes generally remain below 2.5 percent across all countries. Starting in August, China's price changes accelerate significantly, reaching approximately 5.7 percent, then continue climbing to peak at about 8.3 percent in December. The Others category follows a similar but less dramatic upward trend, reaching about 5.3 percent by December. USA, Canada, and Mexico maintain more moderate price changes throughout the year, typically staying below 2.5 percent. Note: 12-month percent changes in the country-specific Numerator Fisher Price Indices for January through December 2025. The key identifies bars in order from left to right. Source: Matched Numerator Panel Data and Label Insight Data, authors' calculations.
This #FEDSNote shows that price pressures developed gradually in 2025 rather than showing up as a one-time price spike and tariff effects have been greatest for goods imported from China with 8.5% year-over-year price increase by December 2025. www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
Kristi Noem to join Harvard Institute of Politics
A screenshot of an RStudio window. On the left-hand side is a new pain called Posit Assistant. The Posit Assistant had recently run code making a lat-lon plot of Washington state, colored by whether the point had been marked as forested or not.
Today we're releasing AI for RStudio. It's really, really good—I'd encourage you to point it at the messiest data sources you have and see what it can do.
www.simonpcouch.com/blog/2026-03...
In today's newsletter? Been slacking in my Levine reading...
Guys, the Italian unemployment rate has just fallen below the UK's.
I really don't see a problem with ECB/BoE cutting rates in response to a real income shock here - providing it persists. Demand picture was not overstrong coming into it and rates were already in broadly restrictive territory.
I mean, one is hardly a collection. Time to step up your game.
Who can reply: anyone, nobody, people who can be normal about it.
trying out a new feature, lmk if it works
Bonds are no port in this storm, as inflation fears intensify
“We are seeing bonds again failing to provide protection against risk-off events, even as gold delivers,” said one HF investor
www.ft.com/content/b4ad...
Super interesting research here on long term yields and the macroeconomics of housing.
sites.google.com/view/jadhaze...
No discipline, no foresight, no concept of chain of consequences, no capacity to plan, no settled idea of desired end state, just endless rolling crises precipitated by the centre. That’s all the analysis I have for this moment in history.
Speaking to the Guardian on the day before the byelection result, Mahmood urged her colleagues to acknowledge that the UK public had “legitimate grievances” about the unfairness of allowing people to arrive in small boats and the strain on public services from excessive immigration.
Compare and contrast Starmer calling Green's "extremists", "divisive" and "sectarian" with Mahmood repeating false Reform claims about "legitimate concerns" and "strain on public services". It isn't a choice between Reform and Labour when end result is the same.
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026...