Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?
https://nitter.net/typesfast/status/2032469361748046024
Original post
13.03.2026 16:10
👍 0
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
Image 1
From a purely electoral standpoint (not that I don't have opinions about it from a non-electoral standpoint) Iran has to be one of the dumber moves in recent memory. Maybe the base case is that things get back to normal, but the risks for Trump are weighted to the downside.
Original post
13.03.2026 12:10
👍 0
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
COOPER NCAA basketball ratings
Silver Bulletin's brand new power ratings for all 365 men's Division I NCAA basketball teams.
Michigan #1 now in COOPER after Duke's close call last night. These are not adjusted for injuries, although that will hurt Duke a little bit too when we add them for our tournament forecast.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/cooper-mens-ncaa-basketball-power-ratings
Original post
13.03.2026 12:10
👍 1
🔁 1
💬 0
📌 0
Image 1
Our women's COOPER ratings just dropped! (They are co-named after Cooper Flagg and Cynthia Cooper, after all.) Way more dominance than in the men's game. NCAA tournament forecasts to follow after the brackets are announced.
Original post
12.03.2026 21:09
👍 0
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
It's a war so I'm gonna be very nice and not dunk on people who 100% deserve it but honestly fuck those people who said it would all be over in a few days.
https://nitter.net/TheStalwart/status/2032103844759384211
Original post
12.03.2026 15:24
👍 0
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
"You can just do things" is basically the same heuristic as "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face" except for people who haven't been punched in the face yet.
Original post
12.03.2026 02:34
👍 0
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
Image 1
I think (?) the U.S. has made it thru but I still want to know what kind of hallucinogens the person who came up with these WBC tiebreakers was taking.
Original post
12.03.2026 00:49
👍 0
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
Obviously this stuff is hard to price. But the notion that it's *just* vibes is silly. It's *some* vibes mediated by objective facts on the ground amid the fog of war. Such as oil tankers (reportedly) being attacked. And the U.S. not really having a coherent gameplan.
Original post
12.03.2026 00:18
👍 2
🔁 1
💬 0
📌 0
Image 1
So far, polling on Iran doesn't show that much opposition among rank-and-file Republicans, even as people like Tucker Carlson and Joe Rogan denounce it. But as @emckowndawson points out, that may be missing the forest for the trees.
Original post
11.03.2026 19:49
👍 1
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
Image 1
While the dynamics between the GOP and Democrats aren't identical, one can identify some parallels to Gaza. Opinion among activists was a leading indicator for Democrats overall, though it took a year or two to really break through.
Original post
11.03.2026 19:49
👍 0
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
Repost by @natesilver538
Bam Adebayo is such a perfect player to get that record. Just good enough that it doesn’t feel completely unbelievably insane but it’s SO borderline. It’s like Cory Booker being elected President.
Click to see original repost
11.03.2026 19:04
👍 0
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
Image 1
ICYMI, we launched our COOPER NCAA ratings last night. We'll be updating these every day. Also women's ratings coming tomorrow or Friday, I expect.
Original post
11.03.2026 13:18
👍 0
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
Nerdy note: We've changed the text on the chart to clarify that our offensive/defensive projections are literally just projecting points scored and allowed per game. So that reflects both pace + efficiency, which is how the internal logic of the model works.
Original post
11.03.2026 13:18
👍 0
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
His career high in points is 41, he literally doubled that!
Original post
11.03.2026 02:33
👍 0
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
Image 1
83 points! 36 free throws made! (Previous NBA record was 28.) This Bam thing has gotta be the weirdest sports thing since Isner-Mahut. Maybe the weirdest ever.
Original post
11.03.2026 02:18
👍 0
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
COOPER NCAA basketball ratings
Silver Bulletin's brand new power ratings for all 365 men's Division I NCAA basketball teams.
The COOPER homepage is here. We're working on the women's version too. And of course, we'll have our NCAA tournament forecast, based on COOPER and other data, ready for you on Sunday, possibly pretty late.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/cooper-mens-ncaa-basketball-power-ratings
Original post
10.03.2026 23:33
👍 0
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
Image 1
COOPER, our new NCAA basketball rating system, just launched. We think it's very cool. Unfortunately, it really likes Duke.
Original post
10.03.2026 23:33
👍 1
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
One big improvent I've seen with the newer LLMs is that if they don't get something right on the first try, the 2nd/3rd tries are often right or at least directionally helpful. 6 months ago you were more likely to hit an asymptote and have it be a net waste of time.
Original post
10.03.2026 00:11
👍 0
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
And it may be right. I don't claim to have any insight into military strategy. However, your hypothesis was traders were wrong because we'd win the war and control 100% of the Gulf oil supply w/in days. Which had nothing to do with why markets spiked after Trump signaled a TACO.
Original post
09.03.2026 22:41
👍 0
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
The dynamic where markets both *reflect* and *affect* Trump's behavior is super complicated to price. Maybe one without a stable equilibrium. I hope it goes well but we'll see how your war prediction looks in a few days.
Original post
09.03.2026 22:41
👍 0
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
If you'd just said "markets can be crazy, so buy the dip", that's a banal observation but sure, I'd agree up to a point. Instead you had an opinion that you were too chickenshit to stand behind. Don't argue with someone who understands how to search for deleted tweets.
Original post
09.03.2026 21:41
👍 0
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
Your observation was that we'd win the war and control the entire oil flow in the "Straits of Hurmuz" in a few days. That was incredibly rash. Instead, markets rallied for the opposite reason: because they think Trump is going to back off ("chicken out" if you prefer).
Original post
09.03.2026 21:41
👍 0
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
Sometimes Twitter search is funky, so I don't want to accuse you of deleting a tweet if it's a platform issue. But several people noticed this very bold claim of yours (as well as your misspellings). Kind of unsporting of you not to mention that Charlie!
Original post
09.03.2026 20:56
👍 0
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
Image 1
Original post
09.03.2026 20:56
👍 0
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
Was strolling into NY-12 for lunch, as one does when one lives in NY-10, and came across a Schlossberg canvassar pitching "Jack Kennedy for Congress".
Original post
09.03.2026 18:56
👍 0
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
Repost by @natesilver538
Ironically enough trump’s biggest blunder on Iran is that he thought he'd just fallen out of a coconut tree and that he could ignore the context of all which came before you
Click to see original repost
09.03.2026 18:41
👍 0
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
Are you familiar with where the Strait of Hormuz is, Keith? It is conspicuously empty.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:56.6/centery:26.4/zoom:9
Original post
08.03.2026 23:50
👍 0
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
Repost by @natesilver538
A reminder that the explosion in prices happening right now is still the optimistic, things-resolved-quickly pricing. December oil futures are only up to $74.
https://nitter.net/BenniKim/status/2030771712921378933
Click to see original repost
08.03.2026 23:30
👍 0
🔁 0
💬 0
📌 0
