I once saw a guy dressed in a big McGruff costume being arrested at the Times Square station. No joke. The undercover cop wouldn't tell me why he had been arrested. The guy had his McGruff head off, in his hands.
Wonder what the "Tom Hanks is sick, and the NBA is cancelled" moment will be?
This is a very good point - Gulf accounts for about half of globally traded urea (for nitrogen fertilizer) and 45% of sulfur (sulfuric acid is used for many, many processes in chemistry)
You have some leeway with potassium and phosphate. They don't have to be put on every year, because they leach slowly. Nitrogen needs to put on much more frequently.
This may be small sample variation or pace of attacks. But note that Iran has been testing Saudi defenses regularly, probably with same end goal of exhaustion. That has to be the larger prize, both in size and continued ability to export.
Becoming a bit more Feb-Mar’20 like tbh it feels like you are the crazy one for watching the inevitable approaching…
Apparently the USN has neglected its minesweeping?: centerformaritimestrategy.org/publications...
Today's energy news:
So tweet, delete, mine.
My grandma said it was much better working in a factory as a seamstress than growing up on a farm in Poland. If a sweatshop is a step up, then what you were doing previously must have really sucked.
Other companies, like Apple and Amazon, have touted their US plans highlighting absurdly large figures conflating all sorts of spending, much of it already announced, as "investment".
Perhaps it's not coincidence that the US turns 250 this year.
$T plans to invest $250bn over five years (so $50bn annual)
Says investment is capex and "other spending" including things like improving "AI fluency"
Estimated 2026 capex prior to announcement ~$23bn, estimated SG&A ~$27bn
Well ok then.
Lots of noise, no signal. Hope this ends (and I am completely wrong on how this would play out!) but how does “that” chaotic display encourage anyone to make an agreement. Ceasefire sure, but end of hostilities?
“The boys could be home my Christmas”
The volume of crude production that Iraq has *already* shut-in is larger than the peak of *feared* [but never realized] Russian supply loss in early 2022 that spiked crude prices above $120 per barrel.
I mean come on - oil was higher in 2022 and far higher on an inflation adjusted basis in 2007. This is a bigger shock in a product with inelastic demand and supply over the short run. Probably going way higher.
$WTI up 20%. What’s funny is market just starting to grasp primary effect and hasn’t even begun to think about secondary ones (recession here we come, renewable companies worth far more etc)
There will be permanent demand destruction. Only question is how much.
Dates can be sped up. If attacks against infrastructure spread we will be on the “higher for longer” oil price track - that would entail lots of demand destruction and even more rapid spread of renewables.
I’m turning about as bearish as can be
Escalating attacks on vulnerable infrastructure not going to end well for anyone - especially with proliferation of drones. Also raises the chances this turns chaotic which makes it much harder to de-escalate.
We are entering a neo-1980s. Going from overly chill people dressed like bearded Methodist youth ministers to cold alienation, capitalism run amok and tweaked out sex maniacs if the past is any guide.
It’s like clockwork - opioids deeply unfashionable and ODs down. Talking with Mrs C, who works with lots of young adults, and cocaine is starting to REALLY become a problem for Gen Z.
Reminder that northern canada is extremely desolate but also filled with genuinely absurd fantasy terrain
This whole dress up aspect is the funniest part because it’s the photo editor’s view of what finance looks like. If you really want to look like an important banker wear a Garmin on your wrist.
This is called a message (from earlier this morning)
I’m staring at this—imagining the possible consequences.
Once heard a sales guy say heretohenceforth on a call
Zero sum thinking runs rampant in DC
SPR holds around 400 million - will go a lot further than it used to when we were a big importer. The bigger problem I think would be more energy costs (rather than energy access) for US consumers/industry.
This is similar to past estimates I've heard for how fast production could be ramped, so sounds right. Also makes sense.
