This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| SB 274 applies the wrong lesson, why the Iran operation isn't changing #AKLNG's market dynamics & why the #akleg should ignore the Spring F'cast and use the 10-year average oil price instead.
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#AkLeg
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This Week's Column| SFIN is proposing to change the percent-of-market-value draw rate. In this week's column, we discuss the modifications that are needed to better protect both future generations and the PFD. #akleg
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I’m disgusted with Acting AG Stephen J Cox. The persecution of this family is in the name of a MAGA culture war. They should not be prosecuted and Acting AG Cox should not be confirmed by the #akleg. Please write and call them to not confirm Cox in the name Miliama Suli, RIP 🙏
www.akleg.gov/poms/
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Monthly, we review indices of Alaska income. Overall, growth in personal consumption expenditures since 2017 has outpaced growth in personal income. Using regressive PFD cuts over the period to fund govt has had an even greater adverse impact on middle-income #AKfams. #akleg
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The Sunday Financial Charts| To help better understand the overall financial environment, weekly we track current + projected inflation & interest rates. #akleg
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The Sunday Chart| To help assess the ANS market, wkly we review the status of the ANS tanker fleet. Notes: 1 ret'n from Asia. #akleg
* Deliveries month to date: 9.3
* Not in ANS service: 1
* Asia: 1
* USWC: 11 (5 CP, 3 HIL, 2 XOM, 1 MPC) in runs
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The USGS has raised the alert level at the volcanic complex near Alaska's second-most-western community. Still only a watch, but something to know: volcanoes.usgs.gov/hans-public/... #akleg
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The Rolling 4-Wk Avgs| To provide perspective on $$ANS trends as well as the relationship b/w ANS & other reference prices, wkly we chart the 4-wk avg & differentials. Current ANS 4-wk avg $80, ahead of both Brent (+$.02) and Brent/WTI avg ($2.57). #akleg
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This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| SB 274 applies the wrong lesson, why the Iran operation isn't changing #AKLNG's market dynamics & why the #akleg should ignore the Spring F'cast and use the 10-year average oil price instead.
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This Week's Column| SFIN is proposing to change the percent-of-market-value draw rate. In this week's column, we discuss the modifications that are needed to better protect both future generations and the PFD. #akleg
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Even though the Interior Delegation of state legislators remain sequestered in Juneau for the session we still watch those thermometers at home! Rep. Stapp and I will be back to host a town hall at the Fairbanks LIO. Look for announcements. 🌡 🥶 #akleg
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The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg
* 5-yr: S&P 10.96% v PFC 8.04%
* 3-yr: S&P 19.82% v PFC 8.94%
* 1-yr: S&P 20.12% v PFC 12.43%
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The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING26 rev F'cast:
> FY26 ⬆️ $2 (+$79mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $8 (+$314mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $2 (avg annual +$70mil)
#akleg
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The Saturday Charts | Each Saturday, we compare current FY gross oil revs vs. DOR's most recent (NOW SPRING 26) F'cast. W/ 70% of FY26 booked, projected annual gross revs (blue) running even w/ SPRING '26 F'cast. Projected FY26 WAVG currently $75. #akleg
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AKLNG we have a problem.
Trust us Alaska it will be GREAT!
#akleg
Great article:
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Takeaways:
*Republicans will rely on the Dunleavy Administration prognosticators Trump Iran War experts
*MAGA #akleg says Iran War Good!
*Believe them when they say they ALWAYS spend $ wisely
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✨Mina’s Minute✨Sidewalks, roads, & bridges will get a lot worse if we don’t pass our supplemental budget ASAP. We’ve never failed to fund the summer construction season. Industry relies on predictable funding, and using a small amount of our savings now gives certainty that oil prices can’t. #akleg
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#akleg excellent thread on why the agreement signed by election denier Carol Beecher Director of the Alaska Division of Elections with the urging of Acting AG Stephen Cox is so dangerous:
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The Stable Geniuses of the Dunleavy Administration have a revenue projection and the MAGA faction of the #akleg have an oil boner. They love War. Go forth and spend!
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This is what people like Begich 3 are trying to sell. They want Alaska to subsidize the AKLNG to our complete disadvantage ensuring that corporations like Glenfarne take home billions on the backs of Alaskans: #akleg
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This Week's Column| SFIN is proposing to change the percent-of-market-value draw rate. In this week's column, we discuss the modifications that are needed to better protect both future generations and the PFD. #akleg
buff.ly/cXTut0i
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The Friday P.M. "Goldilocks" Charts| We publish five charts Fri afternoons showing the impact of current futures $$oil on Alaska's fiscal outlook and three alternatives for resolving it. (Background: bit.ly/3UhbLCZ) #akleg
1/6
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The State is Alaska is out with its updated oil prediction. Because who doesn’t know better what Trump, Iran, and world oil markets will do than the State of Alaska. They’ve got this! It’s all very predictable. #akleg #sarcasm
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This forecast is being released during a period of high uncertainty given the conflict in Iran and related disruptions to oil markets. The revenue forecast is based on Alaska North Slope (ANS) oil prices averaging $75.26 per barrel for FY 2026 which incorporates an actual average price of $67.34 per barrel for the first eight months of the fiscal year and a forecasted average price of $91.09 per barrel for the final four months of the fiscal year. The price forecast for FY 2027 is $75.00 per barrel, which assumes that prices will begin FY 2027 at over $80.00 per barrel and decline throughout the fiscal year. This price forecast represents a most likely scenario within a range of potential outcomes. Oil prices over the next year could be materially higher and/or lower than the official forecast.
The state's updated revenue forecast is out.
They're predicting an average of $91bbl for the remaining four months this year. That's about $14 shy of what budgeters said is needed to cover this year's supplemental budget without tapping state savings.
Not quite what some were hoping.
#akleg
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Rep. Fields addresses the Alaska House failing to unlock $700M in federal transportation funds despite unanimous approval by the Senate. We also discuss Rep. Fields' behavior during US Nick Begich's speech this week. Listen here: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/l... #akleg
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Throwback to the most perfect two minutes in #akleg history:
"This time, our so-called best friends have bested us."
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The House passed the supplemental budget yesterday, but not the 3/4 vote to pay for it.
The GOP Minority argued the "blessing" of high oil prices would provide more than enough $ (thereby keeping leverage).
For that to pan out, oil needs to avg more than $105/bbl thru 7/1.
Meanwhile...
#akleg
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