Latest posts tagged with #LinkLog on Bluesky
a core thing this gets right: scarcity of positional goods is a conserved quantity, and time to compete for them is always finite. I think everything else -- the role of taste, understandable summaries -- follows #linklog
i think "always bet on text" is a nice engineering principle but exactly backwards economically when video is cheap. people seem to prefer better simulacra of "getting it from another person", even if it's lossier, especially when there are machines to deal with the text layer #linklog
"The instantaneous jump to commercialization molds a novel idea in the image of finance." A Galbraithian take here would be that finance is, for planning purposes, increasingly state-like in its ability to control uncertainty. How far can that stretch without also controlling violence? #linklog
Bookmarked Vimeo Lays Off ‘Most’ of Its Staff, Allegedly Includes ‘the Entire Video Team’ (by Gizmodo) Vimeo was bought by the infamous Italian Bending Spoons last year (who previously bought Evernote, Meetup, Wetransfer, Eventbrite). For years Vimeo was a very usable video platform away from […]
"It’s also undeniable that SpaceX needs more than just Starlink to justify a $1.5T valuation, given that even its expected lead investment bank, Morgan Stanley, only thinks Starlink revenues will get to $126B in 2040." -- this is the sharpest thing i've read about the SpaceX IPO yet #linklog
"since no one had a clear sense of the problems they wanted to solve with AI or the efficiencies they wanted AI to create, the supposed benefits of AI were a mirage" -- the pixie dust mentality seems endemic, as does 'ignore the fixed costs'. good post, recommended blog more generally. #linklog
"Even when you do everything right ... you usually don't [succeed] ... all you can do is create good opportunities to [succeed]" -- this seems true in knowledge/persuasion work domains generally, e.g., teaching, research, policy, sales. Anyone have good knowledge/persuasion counterexamples? #linklog
Interesting to think about the social dynamics of a group of people enjoying great power and minimal accountability in one domain of their lives entering a domain traditionally designed around checks on power and high accountability. #linklog
some very good lines about statistical liturgy (as usual), and a reminder that science is everywhere and always a social phenomenon #linklog
as much as I like to say that AI is a social science, I find this a reasonable argument that CS isn't quite there yet (and should get closer). on the other hand, mechanism designers' claims notwithstanding, economics could use more build-and-test if it's to build a real engineering culture #linklog
existence of Big Country Parochialism implies existence of Small Country Provincialism #linklog
"We learn what generosity, vanity, or integrity look like by watching them play out in lived situations" -- This lens is more interesting to me lately than "Jane Austen, game theorist" (albeit complementary). Who is writing this kind of applied virtue ethics fiction particularly well today? #linklog
"Fifth, we estimate preliminary short-run price elasticities just above one, suggesting limited scope for Jevons-Paradox effects." I wonder whether the same holds for personal usage of companion chatbots. I'd expect not, they seem stickier, but it's an empirical question. #linklog
my current perhaps-crank theory is that learning curves are mostly about the people in the industry, and so their variability is largely about relevant labor market conditions #linklog
every claim that "the incentives" support or deter certain kinds of behavior is also a statement about what kinds of external signals the claimant views as rewards or penalties #linklog
I don't know that anyone has ever made a very good UX for sampling from high dimensional joint distributions, but etiquettes can work well in their native equilibria #linklog
From a quick skim this is about the best thing I've read about orbital data centers yet. Suppose orbital data centers happen as described here. What happens to near-term heavy-lift launch pricing? #linklog
Assuming that last part is accurate, I wouldn’t expect the situation to last much longer though — because once senior engineers do start figuring it out en masse, and in particular, once their employers figure it out, it’s going to be a bloodbath out there. Even the most productive juniors and mids are going to start feeling like net negatives. The blast radius is not limited to just engineers either. If I can cut a 20 person team that I manage down to 4 or 5 highly accountable and AI empowered senior engineers that report directly to me, then I don’t even need a project manager. I might not even need business analysts, because the seniors can be my domain experts. Depending on the domain, I might not even need designers.
it's interesting to think about the flavors of "senior thinking" -- the pattern here certainly isn't limited to software engineering. #linklog
obie.medium.com/what-happens...
"The high cost of housing is the cost required to get the 15 millionth household to wait." in a sense many households are tied for 15 millionth #linklog
a nice discussion of the physical basis of diminishing marginal returns / increasing marginal costs in compute #linklog
Context Plumbing, Intent Sensing and an AI Reverse Uno on Social Media Feeds? The Enterprise Strikes Back Fears of the AI investment bubble potentially crashing the US stock market have abated slig...
#AI #Innovation #Lee #Linklog #Technology
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one thing that stands out to me here is the emphasis on how different ways of using the tool affects the feel (vibe?) and function of the team. #linklog
TIL only 15-17m LDVs are added per year to a stock of 295m. If the average lifespan is 12 years, have we passed peak LDV? #linklog
I would like to read 1-5k words about the use of legibility and illegibility inside consultancies, think tanks, and other knowledge production orgs #linklog
"if you want a theory of economic vibes, it is vibes you need to be theorising about." 'epistemic collapse' could be part of a theory of economic vibes, but i think not all of it. a theory of vibes seems like it would be a more sophisticated theory of expectations. #linklog
this is framed as being about the un-wisdom of crowds but it really seems to be about the challenges of distributed trust and alignment. in fairness I suppose wisdom is often presumed to be benign. #linklog
I like this term "wash hire". data drift, particularly for firm-specific knowledge, seems a reasonable driver of wash hiring. #linklog
"The Bayesian approach, despite its virtues, changes the topic" made me laugh. really nice paper, much on the value of suitably constrained methodological anarchy #linklog
