Carnegie Endowment

Opinion | Latin Americans Already Have a Serious Partner — and It’s Not Trump

Under mounting U.S. pressure, Latin American countries are hedging, avoiding rigid alliances and steering clear of great-power clashes.

@oliverstuenkel.bsky.social outlines how countries across the region navigate a complex geopolitical environment, for @nytimes.com: www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/o...

Iran regime change: When do protests topple autocrats? The recent record of citizen uprisings in autocracies spells caution for the hope that a new wave of Iranian protests may break the regime’s hold on power.

Iran has faced waves of anti-government protests over the past 2 decades, leaving the country in an uncertain moment. As divisions deepen, will protests rise again?

Thomas Carothers and McKenzie Carrier explore how protest movements reshape autocratic systems: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

What Turkey Wants in Iran Sinan Ülgen considers how the country will pursue its goal of a weakened regime that avoids collapse.

Turkey and Iran have been at peace since 1639, but they’re “far from allies,” writes @sinanulgen.bsky.social. Instability in Iran would be bad for Turkey, but it's not seeking victory for the Iranian regime.

Sinan explains, for @projectsyndicate.bsky.social:

Who Will Be Iran’s Next Supreme Leader? If the succession process can be carried out as Khamenei intended, it will likely bring a hardliner into power.

Choosing the right successor to Ayatollah Khamenei is critical for regime survival in Iran.

@ericlob.bsky.social outlines the succession process and the prospective candidates.

Read here:

Turkey Has Two Key Interests in the Iran Conflict But to achieve either, it needs to retain Washington’s ear.

There’s a “fragile momentum” in the U.S.-Turkey relationship right now. How Washington proceeds in the Iran war – especially if it arms Kurdish dissidents – could cause this momentum to fall apart.

@iacoskun.bsky.social explains:

Who’s Running Iran? YouTube video by Carnegie Endowment

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed almost a week ago — so who’s running Iran? Will Iranians take to the streets? Could Kurdish militias? And what about oppositionists in exile?

@ksadjadpour.bsky.social joins Jon Bateman to discuss on today's World Unpacked: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lr6O...

Bombing Campaigns Do Not Bring About Democracy. Nor Does Regime Change Without a Plan. Just look at Iraq in 1991.

Nearly a week after the initial attacks, President Trump and his administration’s stated goals for the war on Iran remain unclear. History teaches us that proceeding without a plan won’t bring democracy.

Marwan Muasher explains: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Opinion | Of Course Trump Bombed Iran

Read the full article here: www.nytimes.com/2026/03/05/o...

They conclude “if the United States wants to stop plunging into Middle East wars, it needs to value its own interests more than it hates its old enemies.”

🧵Was a war with Iran inevitable? In a new piece for @nytimes.com, @stephenwertheim.bsky.social and Robert Malley argue the current conflict is the culmination of decades of U.S. foreign policy framing Iran as a threat.

Iran Is Pushing Its Neighbors Toward the United States Tehran’s attacks are reshaping the security situation in the Middle East—and forcing the region’s clock to tick backward once again.

Iran’s attacks on the Gulf states could lead to a significant strategic shift in the region and push Gulf Arab countries to align with the United States rather than coexist with Iran.

Amr Hamzawy on implications of eroding trust as conflict escalates: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

The Gulf Monarchies Are Caught Between Iran’s Desperation and the U.S.’s Recklessness Only collective security can protect fragile economic models.

For more on this from Andrew, see his latest in Emissary: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Can Gulf Monarchies Weather the Storm? YouTube video by Carnegie Endowment

President Trump labeled Iran's attacks on Gulf countries the "biggest surprise" of the war so far. In the conflict between the U.S. and Israel and Iran, Gulf monarchies are (and have been) put in a difficult position.

@andrewleber.bsky.social explains: youtube.com/shorts/s4q-k...

Screenshot that says: Amid the open-ended war that the United States and Israel kicked off this weekend, each of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states has been targeted—and in some cases hit—by Iranian drone and missile strikes. The strikes sparked fires near luxury hotels in Dubai, caused panic at Kuwait’s international airport, and put Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery out of commission. In an interview with CNN, President Donald Trump called the attacks on the Gulf “probably the biggest surprise” of the war so far. It shouldn’t have been surprising. During the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran in the president’s first term, the Islamic Republic backed attacks on oil tankers near the Persian Gulf as well as Saudi oil infrastructure, each of which dampened GCC support for overt confrontation of Iran.

Wrote up initial observations on the war & what Pres. Trump called its "biggest surprise"* for
@carnegieendowment.org

*(it won't surprise you that he shouldn't have been surprised)

carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Making Sense of Iran's Deterrence Failures An early appraisal of the missteps that got Iran to this point.

For more, see Ankit's recent article: panda.substack.com/p/making-sen...

Where Did Iran's Deterrence Go Wrong? YouTube video by Carnegie Endowment

Iran made several missteps in its deterrence strategy in the leadup to war. @nktpnd.bsky.social broke them down: youtube.com/shorts/KX1Vh...

The Four Ways That the Iran War Could End | Plain English YouTube video by Plain English with Derek Thompson

@ksadjadpour.bsky.social joined @dkthomp.bsky.social on Plain English to discuss how the conflict in Iran might evolve after the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei.

Watch here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lsqx...

Gulf Arab States Face Hard Choices as Iran Widens Attacks Gulf Arab states are facing tough choices in the coming hours and days including the possibility of going to war with Iran, with the Islamic Republic intensifying its attacks on US allies across the r...

@mahamyahya.bsky.social expressed that Iran “felt it’s now or never, this is an existential war so let’s turn it into a regional conflict.”

Read more in @bloomberg.com: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Exclusive: Ahead of strikes, Trump was told Iran attack is high risk, high reward Ahead of the U.S. attack on Iran, President Donald Trump received briefings that not only delivered blunt assessments about the risk of major U.S. casualties but also touted the prospect of a geopolit...

"The Iranian opposition is pretty fragmented. It's unclear what the population is willing to do in terms of rising up," @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social shared about what could come next in Iran.

Read more in @reuters.com: www.reuters.com/world/us/ahe...

Trump tells the Atlantic "I have agreed to talk" to Iran President Trump tells the Atlantic he's willing to talk with Iran to find a resolution, a day after U.S.-Israeli strikes on the country. Eric Lob, associate professor of politics and international rel...

@ericlob.bsky.social followed up on the initial attacks by the U.S. on Iran this past weekend on @cbsnews.com.web.brid.gy and its effects on regional stability.

Full video: www.cbsnews.com/video/trump-...

Russia loses key ally leader as Putin slams Khamenei 'cynical' killing Bashar al-Assad, Nicolas Maduro and now Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In the last 18 months, Russian President Vladimir Putin has lost several key foreign allies -- and there is little...

Where does Russia stand? Alexander Baunov describes Putin as being in a difficult position after not fulfilling the role of savior to his allies.

Read more in @france24.com: www.france24.com/en/live-news...

Lebanon on edge as US and Israel launch attack on Iran While Lebanon's government opposes getting involved, Hezbollah has said it would view an attack on Iran's leader as a "red line." Israel has previously warned Beirut of heavy strikes.

Beyond Iran, Lebanon is increasingly on edge as officials urge Hezbollah to not join the rising conflict. Mohanad Hage Ali shared that Hezbollah’s “decision-making is more fragmented” and not the force it was before the war.

Full article in @deutschewelle.dw.com: www.dw.com/en/lebanon-u...

Watch Iran Is Still Dangerous, Says Carnegie's Miller - Bloomberg Aaron David Miller, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, says Iran is still dangerous and can inflict pain on the region. He talks about when he thinks the war could end on...

How much power does Iran still hold, and what does it mean for regional dynamics?

Aaron David Miller discusses on @bloomberg.com: www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...

‘Diversionary war’: Trump wants to distract Americans from scandals at home | Christopher S Chivvis Iran strikes are attempt to hijack the global narrative and drown out Epstein and tariffs with the thunder of cruise missiles

In @theguardian.com, Christopher Chivvis described President Trump’s actions in Iran as a performative use of US power and a means by which to curb domestic scrutiny.

Read his full piece: www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

🧵/ Carnegie scholars are closely following the developments in Iran and what could come next. Keep reading to see their analysis in the media ⬇️

Europe on Iran: Gone with the Wind Europe’s reaction to the war in Iran has been disunited and meek, a far cry from its previously leading role in diplomacy with Tehran. To avoid being condemned to the sidelines while escalation contin...

Meanwhile, Europe’s muted response shows that the influence it once had over Western relations with Iran is now largely gone. Can the EU break out of its “confounding” passivity?

Pierre Vimont explains in @carnegieeurope.bsky.social’s Strategic Europe: carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

How Far Can Russian Arms Help Iran? Arms supplies from Russia to Iran will not only continue, but could grow significantly if Russia gets the opportunity.

Russia, however, is continuing to supply arms to Iran, and it may very increase this supply even further. What would it take for that to happen – and why?

Nikita Smagin writes for @ceip-politika.bsky.social: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Beijing Doesn’t Think Like Washington—and the Iran Conflict Shows Why Arguing that Chinese policy is hung on alliances—with imputations of obligation—misses the point.

Why hasn’t China rushed to Iran’s defense? It’s not actually surprising, writes Evan Feigenbaum: China doesn’t approach its allies in the same way as the U.S., and it’s a mistake to assume that it does.

Read here: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

What We Know About Drone Use in the Iran War Two experts discuss how drone technology is shaping yet another conflict and what the United States can learn from Ukraine.

The U.S. and Iran make extensive use of drones. It’s reminiscent of another conflict defined, in part, by drone warfare: Russia’s war on Ukraine. Why are drones a dominant feature of modern war?

@massdara.bsky.social and @stevenfeldstein.bsky.social explain: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Axis of Resistance or Suicide? As Iran defends its interests in the region and its regime’s survival, it may push Hezbollah into the abyss.

In @carnegiemec.bsky.social’s Diwan, by Michael Young: Iran sees the threats it’s now facing as existential. That could be disastrous for its regional allies.

Full article: carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/...