@manuseral
Economist. Research fellow at the Competence Centre on Microeconomic Evaluation (CC-ME), Joint Research Centre, European Commission. Public policy evaluation & health economics. Personal website: https://sites.google.com/view/manuelserranoalarcon
Hi #econsky. This is the last week to submit your best work on policy evaluation at the COMPIE conference and join us in Paris on June 24-26, 2026.
Deadline: February 28!
Submit at: editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conf...
Keynotes:
@pedrosantanna.bsky.social
@michelag.bsky.social
📢 Fourth Edition of the Best Paper Prize in Public Policy Evaluation, in conjunction with the course “Panel Data for Causal Research Designs”, co-organised with the Italian Econometric Association SIdE
🏆 €1,000 prize.
📅 Deadline: 10th of April 2026.
Further details: irvapp.fbk.eu/call-for-the...
Enhorabuena Eugenio!
📢 Call for Papers – #EHEW2026
Empirical Health Economics Workshop
📍 Milan (Univ. Milano-Bicocca) | 🗓 July 9–11, 2026
📝 Empirical & policy-oriented research in #HealthEconomics
⏰ Deadline: March 31, 2026
📝 Submit your paper to COunterfactual Methods for Policy Impact Evaluation (COMPIE 2026) conference
Paris, June 24-26
Deadline: Feb 28
🎤 Keynotes:
• @pedrosantanna.bsky.social (Emory)
• Michela Giorcelli (UCLA)
Info: knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/event/compie...
#econsky
It has become received wisdom in Brussels and Washington that there is a new “euro-sclerosis”: that the EU economy is lagging the US
This view is wrong
A little primer on the measurement of productivity – and why reports of the economic death of Europe are greatly exaggerated🧵
In this new working paper @yaninadomenella.bsky.social and I study how intensive support can help people with intellectual and developmental disabilities find jobs. Spoiler: it not only does but also significantly raises their well-being
📈 What is driving the current surge in sick leave uptake across developed countries?
In a new working paper with Josep Amer-Mestre,
we use Spain admin data (2018–2023) as a case study to examine which factors explain this trend.
📣 Thread with results below
📝Link to the paper: shorturl.at/LFadK
Policy implications:
▶️ measures to contain moral hazard may reduce strategic short-term absences, but focusing only on this is insufficient.
▶️ The sharp rise in long mental health leaves, especially among the youth, calls for:
• Broader preventive strategies & mental health support at work.
Regional panel models linked with national health survey further show:
• Short-term SL unrelated to changes in health indicators 👉 likely behavioural
• Long-term mental and musculoskeletal SL are significantly associated with work stress and pain-related limitations👉 likely health deterioration.
We further decompose the rise by diagnosis group and find:
▶️Musculoskeletal and mental disorders account for ~60% of the increase, with a clear age gradient.
▶️ Mental health is the largest contributor among workers <40, explaining 35–56%
▶️Musculoskeletal explains 35–43% for workers 50+
Short- and long-term spells behave very differently:
▶️Short-term sick leave: > 60% is explained by falling unemployment👉 likely behavioural responses due to stronger worker bargaining power
▶️Long-term sick leave: 90% unexplained 👉
likely health deterioration rather than strategic behaviour.
Which factors actually explain this surge?
▶️Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition shows that the most commonly discussed drivers explain only ~26% of the increase.
▶️~74% unexplained by workforce composition or observable characteristics.
▶️The large inflow of migrants actually reduces the expected rise.
We find a 36% increase in the share of working days lost to sick leave driven by:
• short spells (≤7 days): +38%
• Very long spells (17+ weeks): +39%
The increase is strikingly broad-based and parallel across SE groups.
This points to common forces rather than isolated, group-specific changes.
Spain provides a compelling case because:
▶️ 2nd highest increase in compensated sick leave in the OECD in 2014–2022.
▶️ Experienced major changes in the most frequently discussed drivers of sickness absence: ageing workforce, large unemployment fall, and big increases in healthcare waiting times.
📈 What is driving the current surge in sick leave uptake across developed countries?
In a new working paper with Josep Amer-Mestre,
we use Spain admin data (2018–2023) as a case study to examine which factors explain this trend.
📣 Thread with results below
📝Link to the paper: shorturl.at/LFadK
Totally agree with the diagnosis, not sure about the suggestion of the two track system. it might create weird selection and sorting.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
we should change the reward and publication system.
“El blog de 2024 está más alineado con la agenda de investigación económica internacional que nunca antes en su historia. Esta profesionalización puede explicar parte del malestar de nuestros lectores más veteranos. Pero, en último término, se trata de una cuestión del gusto de quien nos lee.”
By failing to sanction Israel, EU leaders are complicit in its crimes. They must act now | Josep Borrell
JOB AD: @fbk-irvapp.bsky.social in #Trento (Italy) is looking for a #Researcher in Quantitative Public #Policy Evaluation to conduct (quasi)experimental evaluation research across different policy areas. 2Y+ contract - apply by 18/08 - Please, REPOST #EconSky LINK: jobs.fbk.eu/Annunci/Offe...
Pleased to share op-ed in Le Monde: "Impact Evaluation: For GAFAM or for Citizens?"
🔗 French version (Le Monde):
www.lemonde.fr/idees/articl...
🔗 English translation (Sciences Po):
www.sciencespo.fr/department-e...
Tech companies routinely use impact evaluation tools to optimize their services...
Graph of the effect of receiving COVID-19 aid on firm's turnover, by size, in Spain and Italy. Micro-firms were helped more than medium and large firms. The unprecedented wave of state aid to firms across the EU during the COVID-19 pandemic raised questions about who benefited and how effective these interventions were. This column uses firm-level data from Spain and Italy – two of the countries worst affected by the pandemic – to evaluate the economic impact of aid. Targeted support for micro and small firms increased revenues and investment but had little impact on medium and large firms’ performance. Crisis support should focus on the most vulnerable businesses, and broad subsidies to large firms scrutinised.
Targeted support for micro and small #firms during the #pandemic increased revenues and investment but had little impact on medium and large firms' performance.
G Canzian, E Crivellaro, @tomasoduso.bsky.social, A Rita Ferrara, A Sasso, S Verzillo
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
🎯🚨 Oferta de Empleo en la @uahes.bsky.social 🎯🚨
Área de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico
Plaza de Profesor Ayudante Doctor
¡Ven a trabajar con nosotros! ¡Somos unos apasionados de la Economía!
Competencia en el mercado y adopción de tecnología limpia nadaesgratis.es/admin/compet... Vía @nadaesgratis.bsky.social #Economía
One week left to apply to work with us at the Competence Centre on Microeconomic Evaluation (CC-ME) #econsky
📣 Job opportunity: We are hiring 2 researchers at the European Commission JRC Competence Centre on Microeconomic Evaluation (CC-ME)
📈 Research + policy evaluation
▶️ 3 + 3 years contract, competitive salary & benefits
▶️ Deadline: 25 March 2025
recruitment.jrc.ec.europa.eu/vacancy/1641
#econsky
Crypto is for crime.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
📣 Job opportunity: We are hiring 2 researchers at the European Commission JRC Competence Centre on Microeconomic Evaluation (CC-ME)
📈 Research + policy evaluation
▶️ 3 + 3 years contract, competitive salary & benefits
▶️ Deadline: 25 March 2025
recruitment.jrc.ec.europa.eu/vacancy/1641
#econsky
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