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Sinocism | Bill Bishop | Substack

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Get smarter about China. Click to read Sinocism, by Bill Bishop, a Substack publication with hundreds of thousands of subscribers. [bridged from https://sinocism.com/ on the web: https://fed.brid.gy/web/sinocism.com ]

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Latest posts by Sinocism | Bill Bishop | Substack @sinocism.com.web.brid.gy

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PLA at the Two Sessions; US-China; Iran; OpenClaw A relatively quiet day, at least when it comes to China, as we await the end of the Two Sessions. 1. PLA at the Two Sessions - The excellent YouTube account 中規中矩 (Zhonggui Zhongju) has a fascinating report on the PLA attendance at the Two Sessions. According to him, last year there were 41 generals in attendance, this year there are 4 active and 2 retired. The US may be running through munitions stocks in the Iran war, but Xi is burning through so many generals that the PLA really might not be in a position to fight now if it wanted to? 2. US-China - Bloomberg also reports that the PRC side is “dissatisfied with what they consider last-minute planning ahead of Trump’s arrival on March 31”. On Monday President Trump, in a strange comment if as some argue the attack on Iran is really about China, said about reopening the Strait of Hormuz that “We’re really helping China here and other countries because they get a lot of their energy from the straits…We have a good relationship with China. It’s my honor to do it”.
10.03.2026 21:14 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Xi meets with PLA and PAP delegates; Wang Yi press conference; US-China; China and Iran; OpenClaw frenzy The “OpenClaw” frenzy has is spreading, driven by a chaotic mix of grassroots FOMO, aggressive cloud vendor marketing, and local government industrial policy. As detailed in OpenClaw Conquered China in 100 Days | Why Cloud, Model, and Device Players All Embraced It by Hello China Tech, the open-source AI agent platform OpenClaw has sparked an installation mania. Users are lining up at Tencent’s Shenzhen headquarters for free setups, while a cottage industry of paid installers has emerged online for users who deploy the agent first and figure out a use case later. This rapid adoption validates the token-consumption economics that Chinese cloud and LLM providers desperately need to justify their infrastructure spending. Investors are excited, with OpenClaw AI Mania Fires up Chinese Tech Leaders, Cloud Stocks - Bloomberg noting surging shares for AI startups like MiniMax.
09.03.2026 21:50 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Sinocism Weekly - March 6, 2026 Welcome to the Sinocism Weekly, a free Friday newsletter highlighting the most important items from the Sinocism Essential Eight published Monday through Thursday. This week was dominated by two overlapping stories: the opening of China’s annual Two Sessions legislative meetings in Beijing, and the US–Israel military strikes on Iran that sent shockwaves through energy markets and forced Beijing into a delicate balancing act between its diplomatic ambitions and its energy security anxieties. Underneath those headlines, the week also brought fresh signals on the tech decoupling front, another China-related espionage scandal in the UK, and continued evidence that Xi Jinping’s military purge is far from over.
06.03.2026 21:34 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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NPC; Government Work Report; Xi's breakout session; NDRC report; 15th Five-Year Plan; Iran; Chips he message from Premier Li’s draft government work report he delivered Thursday is that things are on the right track in spite of a difficult external environment and continuing domestic challenges, including involution and deflation, so we should expect more consistency with the policy direction laid out at the Fourth Plenum and Centra Economic Work Conference in Q4 2024 as opposed to any significant shifts towards more stimulative policies. The GDP growth target was cut from “around 5%” to a 4.5–5% range. The headline budget deficit stays at 4% of GDP, and while the broader deficit may widen slightly, overall fiscal support may do less for the economy than in 2025. The PBOC will cut rates and reserve requirements, but slowly. The budget shifts only marginal spending toward households. Technological self-sufficiency and industrial policy remain the core priorities. The Work Report acknowledges overcapacity and deflation. There are some new measures to address the domestic fallout from large-scale industrial subsidies, but nothing that challenges the overall model.
06.03.2026 00:07 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Sharp China: All Eyes on Iran; Two Sessions Questions; Alibaba, DeepSeek and Distillation; Another UK Spying Scandal This episode of Sharp China is outside the paywall.



[Audio] [Original post on sinocism.com]

05.03.2026 10:01 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Two sessions; Iran; Another UK spy case; Qwen Three British men have been arrested on “suspicion of assisting Chinese intelligence” under the National Security Act. All have ties to the Labour Party and one, David Taylor, is the partner of Labour MP Joani Reid. Taylor is the head of programmes at Asia House. They are innocent until proven guilty, but after the UK government’s fumble last year of a different alleged spying case, I have to imagine the authorities think they have a very solid case. This could blow up into a significant scandal for the Labour Party and Prime Minister Starmer, and this is before the likely Peter Mandelson-related China revelations that may cause even more embarrassment for Labour.
04.03.2026 23:44 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Reactions to Iran war; US-China; Two Sessions; DeepSeek and Qwen There has been some speculation that because of the US attack on Iran, Xi would postpone or cancel his meeting with President Trump at the end of the month. I think that speculation is unfounded, and today Bloomberg reported that as expected the US and PRC negotiating teams will meet once more, just after the NPC concludes, possibly in Paris. China should be pleased that the US will offer insurance and US Navy escorts for all commercial ships traveling through the Persian Gulf. Trump does mention China specifically, but in his Truth Social post announcing this move he wrote “ALL maritime trade” so that should include PRC-flagged vessels, and vessels to the PRC. Perhaps one outcome from his visit to China at the end of the month could be asking Xi to send a PLA Navy task force to help escort ships and defend against possible Iranian attacks? Win-win…
03.03.2026 22:56 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Reactions to the US-Israel attack on Iran; Prepping for the Two Sessions; Science and technology insurance This was supposed to be a fairly quiet week heading into the “Two Sessions”, with the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) opening March 4 and the National People’s Congress starting March 5. The US-Israel attack on Iran of course is dominating the news. So far the PRC response has been predictable, with condemnations of the US and calls between Wang Yi and the Foreign Ministers of Russia, Iran, Oman and France. We should not expect anything more than diplomatic and rhetorical responses. The US getting bogged down in another Middle East quagmire, while depleting weapons supplies that need rare earths to be replenished, could have benefits for the PRC, but the risks to oil and gas supplies and prices could be quite negative for China.
03.03.2026 00:07 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Chinese Debates on a Fragmenting Global Order | Sinification: February 2026 Global Order & US-China Relations | Japan | Taiwan | Middle East | Europe | Latin America | Chinese Economy | Technology & Society - Commentary on the Iran conflict from four prominent international relations experts spans the days before and after the US–Israeli strikes. Pre-strike analyses express concern over political rupture, surging religious extremism and the weakening of the “Axis of Resistance”, with Niu Xinchun framing the US–Iran impasse as an irresolvable “mini-Cold War”. Jin Liangxiang describes the nuclear negotiations as a calculated “trap” designed to provide pretext for military action, while noting that China’s strategic oil reserves are sufficient to weather short-term disruption. Zheng Yongnian, writing after the killing, casts the assassination as a “Religious War 2.0” and warns that international order is shifting from one based on rules to one governed by fear.
02.03.2026 12:59 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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NPC countdown; More PLA officers out; US-China; DeepSeek; Xi Thought on Diplomacy Where is DeepSeek’s new model? - The world was expecting DeepSeek’s new model around the Lunar New Year. Is it delayed because, as some rumors suggest, they have run into problems? Or because, as Reuters reports, they are working with Huawei and other domestic chip firms to optimijze performance, even though it was trained on Nvidia chips? Regardless of what is going on, between the apparent delay, the accusations by OpenAI and Anthropic of distillation attacks, and the US government claims that it was actually built on smuggled Nvidia chips, US tech stocks are probably inncoulated against another “DeepSeek moment” shock.
27.02.2026 00:40 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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German Chancellor Merz in Beijing; Shanghai relaxes housing purchase restrictions; PLA purges; Cyberspace; US-China PRC actors using OpenAI for information operations - OpenAI issued a report titled Disrupting Malicious Uses of AI that documented several case studies, including some by PRC actors. One targeted Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi, another went after 李老师不是你老师 “Teacher Li is not your teacher”. These look to be more examples of what CAC head Zhuang wrote in that Study Times article, that “the Internet is an important position for ideological guidance, moral cultivation, and cultural inheritance; it is the main position, main battlefield, and forefront of ideological struggle”.
26.02.2026 01:19 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Ratcheting up the economic coercion on Japan; Mixed holiday economic data; Germany's Merz arrives in Beijing; US-China; AI; Political education campaign ahead of 15th Five-Year Plan Welcome to the Year of the Horse. 1. Ramping up economic coercion on Japan - The Ministry of Commerce started its Year of the Horse work with a ratcheting up of economic coercion against Japan. Today they placed 20 Japanese entities on its export control list, banning the export of dual-use items, and another 20 Japanese entities on a watch list. PRC Foreign Minister Wang Yi, a Japan expert by training, is sounding increasingly unhinged about Japan, so these latest actions should not be a surprise. In a Q&A following his speech at the Munich Security Conference he said: the erroneous remarks made by Japanese leaders on the Taiwan issue have exposed that Japan’s ambitions to invade and colonize Taiwan remain undiminished, and the specter of resurgent militarism still lingers. 日本领导人在台湾问题上的错误言论,暴露了日本侵略殖民台湾的野心未泯、复活军国主义的阴魂不散 Japan still wants to invade and colonize Taiwan? Seriously? Japan has not yet responded with any retaliatory measures. Will Prime Minister Takaichi continue to just absorb this increasing coercion, or will we start seeing actions around some semiconductor-related items on which the PRC is heavily reliant? And will the Trump Administration say anything to support Japan, now or when PM Takaichi visits the US in March?
24.02.2026 23:23 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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DeepSeek distilling Open AI?; Japan seizes PRC fishing boat; US-China; CIA video targets PLA; Spring Festival Internet cleanup Bloomberg reports that OpenAI has sent a memo to the House Select Committee on China accusing DeepSeek of surreptitiously distilling OpenAI models to “free-ride on the capabilities developed by OpenAI and other US frontier labs.” I thought this was an open secret? And yes, I understand the irony of industrial-scale copyright violating OpenAI accusing another firm of IP theft. But if true, it does dent the narrative around DeepSeek, especially as everyone expects their next model within the next few days, which is probably why OpenAI sent (and leaked?) this memo now. But it is not just DeepSeek; Kimi’s latest model was caught referring to itself as Claude.
13.02.2026 00:36 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Sharp China: Pending Taiwan Arms Sales; Jimmy Lai Sentenced; Takaichi Secures a Supermajority; AI Models as Propaganda Vectors On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the reports that the PRC is threatening to scuttle Trump’s visit to Beijing over a second arms package from the U.S. to Taiwan, including thoughts on next moves from the U.S., how this arms shipment happened, and the PLA’s dangerous aerial maneuvers around Taiwan. From there: Reactions to the news that Jimmy Lai has been sentenced to 20 years in Hong Kong prison, a State Council white paper on “One Country Two Systems,” and Sanae Takaichi’s party secures a supermajority in Japan three months after the PRC’s pressure campaign over her Taiwan comments. At the end: The propaganda value of AI models, and a word about hockey and the Winter Olympics.



[Audio] [Original post on sinocism.com]

12.02.2026 10:02 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Xi wishes the troops a happy New Year; State Council study session on “AI+”; Another Hong Kong conviction; January price data The comments in the brief readout that are getting the most attention are: Xi pointed out that the past year was very unusual and extraordinary. The People’s Army deepened its political rectification, effectively responded to various risks and challenges, and underwent a revolutionary tempering in the anti-corruption struggle. The vast number of officers and soldiers, especially those at the grassroots level, have firmly listened to and followed the Party, loyally fulfilled their duties, focused on overcoming difficulties, and successfully completed various tasks. They are completely tough and trustworthy.
11.02.2026 23:30 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Xi's Beijing inspection; Li on rare earths; Hong Kong white paper; Taiwan Affairs Work Conference; PBoC report Wang Huning stated that it is necessary to adhere to the one-China principle and the “1992 Consensus,” unite the vast number of Taiwan compatriots, firmly support patriotic reunification forces on the island, resolutely crack down on “Taiwan independence” separatist forces, oppose interference by external forces, and safeguard peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. He noted the importance of upholding the concept that “both sides of the Strait are one family,” ensuring smooth and convenient personnel exchanges, and expanding people-to-people and grassroots exchanges. He called for supporting Taiwan residents, especially the youth, to study, work, and live on the mainland, while encouraging both sides to jointly promote Chinese culture and foster spiritual harmony among compatriots. Efforts should be made to support mainland-based Taiwan businessmen and enterprises, improve policies and measures that benefit them, and deepen cross-Strait integrated development, allowing compatriots on both sides to share the opportunities and fruits of Chinese-style modernization. But again, we do not know the full content of his speech. It does make sense that they present a more positive approach given the political trends in Taiwan that they seem to believe are moving against President Lai and the DPP.
11.02.2026 00:36 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Jimmy Lai sentenced; Xi on Sci-tech self-reliance; Japan elections; US-China; Nanjing Museum case; AI propaganda A Hong Kong court sentenced UK citizen Jimmy Lai to 20 years in prison. Six other Apple Daily staffers got sentences ranging from 6 years and 9 months to 10 months. Two activists were also sentenced to long jail terms. For 78 year old Lai this is a life sentence. His only hope of freedom is likely some sort of humanitarian release negotiated by US President Trump.
10.02.2026 00:38 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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PLA Tremors and the Chairman in Charge A guest post by Holly Snape on the Chairman Responsibility System - On the same day the news hit that Central Military Commission (CMC) Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and member Liu Zhenli had been placed under investigation, a PLA Daily editorial accused the two men of “seriously trampling on and harming the Chairman Responsibility System” (严重践踏破坏军委主席负责制)1. This is largely viewed as a claim of their having “undermined Xi’s authority” or challenged his desire for personalized power. Put aside whether Zhang and Liu did in fact do any “trampling.” What is this “System”? Why does it matter? Does it really boil down to a statement of who’s the boss? And why should it be factored into calculations about the implications of Zhang and Liu’s downfall? For Xi, the Chairman Responsibility System (中央军委主席负责制) is a big deal. He has been incrementally building it for 13 years. Over this time, dozens of formal documents have been issued and revised and wave after wave of activity has sought to hammer home new rules and demand compliance.
08.02.2026 22:16 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Sharp China: The PLA Purges One Week Later; World Leaders Flock to Beijing; A Trump-Xi Phone Call; Panama Canal Resolution? This episode of Sharp China is outside the paywall.



[Audio] [Original post on sinocism.com]

05.02.2026 10:02 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Xi speaks with Putin and then Trump; Us convenes critical minerals meeting; H200 sales in limbo; Document No.1 explained Xi Jinping had a busy Wednesday, holding a video call with Russian President Putin, a phone call with US President Trump, and a meeting with Le Hoai Trung, Vietnam’s foreign minister and a special envoy of Vietnam’s General Secretary To Lam.
05.02.2026 00:10 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Uruguay President in China; Document No. 1; Development of future industries; Building a financial power; Fighting deflation; Zhang Youxia; 2026 GDP Since the January 25 PLA Daily editorial on the Zhang Youxia-Liu Zhenli case, there have been three follow-on commentaries in the PLA Daily about the case, but we still have no reliable information about what they actually did. The New York Times throws more cold water on the idea that Zhang was giving the US nuclear secrets: Current and former U.S. officials, however, said that they were unaware of General Zhang having been a U.S. intelligence asset or having handed over nuclear information. They also said they had not detected an internal campaign in Beijing to spread the word among officials that General Zhang was a spy for the United States.
03.02.2026 23:41 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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LIVE with Bill Bishop: The world order is shifting — and China is moving fast to shape it. A recording from Bill Bishop and Tara Palmeri's live video



[Audio] [Original post on sinocism.com]

03.02.2026 23:13 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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China’s Policy and Intellectual Debates | Sinification: January 2026 Sinification is a terrific resource for understanding how domestic and international affairs are being debated by the Chinese establishment, and for getting a better sense of where China may be heading. Sinification’s team track, translate, and analyze key debates shaping thought and policy in China, adding the context needed to understand why they matter. I’m very pleased to be able to share this year’s first edition with Sinocism readers. In 2026, Sinocism and Sinification will cooperate on monthly editions for Sinocism’s subscribers, highlighting the internal discussions and policy thinking that matter in a system that remains so stubbornly opaque. More on Sinification, including weekly subscription options, is available here. — Bill
02.02.2026 17:18 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Xi meets Starmer; Services consumption work plan; Soccer corruption; Nvidia and China Xi met with United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Beijing Thursday. Starmer is now the second NATO and Five Eyes leader to meet with Xi in less than two weeks. So far Starmer has not made as stark a declaration of the changing world as Canadian PM Carney did, but Xi and his team must be very pleased with the opportunities arising with longstanding American allies. The visit validates China’s push for a “multipolar” world order. Xi’s comment that major powers must “take the lead” in upholding international law was clearly a thinly veiled swipe at the US.
30.01.2026 00:35 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Sharp China: 10 Questions on the Detention of Zhang Youxia, Corruption in the PLA, Rumors, Messaging, and Taiwan On today’s show Andrew and Bill react to the news that the rumors were true, and CMC members Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli are under investigation for corruption. Topics include: The timing of the announcement from the Defense Ministry, why this weekend’s news inspired such a volume of reactions around the world, a history of Xi’s crackdowns on the PLA, questions about rumors of a coup against Xi, reports that Zhang Youxia was working with the U.S., the PLA corruption heyday and its implications for what might come next, and various ways to think about the implications for Taiwan. At the end: The first batch of H-200s is approved for purchase, and the TikTok sale is approved as users lash out with censorship claims.



[Audio] [Original post on sinocism.com]

29.01.2026 10:00 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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The Zhang Youxia case - Sinocism Live with Bill Bishop and Drew Thompson We had a great discussion about his personal experience shepherding Zhang Youxia around the US many years ago, his work on US-China military-to-military relations, and the disappearance in 2023 of South China Morning Post reporter Minnie Chan.



[Audio] [Original post on sinocism.com]

29.01.2026 01:24 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Xi meets in Finnish PM; UK PM arrives in Beijing, Zhang Youxia; Xinhua on ICE; School of Interstellar Navigation; H200 sales Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli - There is nothing more in official media about the case, and otherwise it seems like business as usual. We are all left to speculate about what happened and what it means. We spent most of this week’s episode of Sharp China talking about this case; look for it in your inbox in less than twelve hours. This section includes some of the more interesting English-language discussion of the case I have found so far. We still have no idea what really happened.
28.01.2026 22:38 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli case; National Conference on Science and Technology; Slow bull market; UK PM to China; US NDS We still have no more concrete information than we had Saturday about the Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli case. The Wall Street Journal reports that in the official internal briefing he was accused of leaking nuclear weapons secrets to the US. As I wrote Saturday, the official, internal story is not always the truth about what happened, so just because they may be telling other officials he leaked nuclear secrets does not mean he actually did, and as much as I would live to believe the US government is that good at getting intelligence, I am skeptical Zhang was leaking to the US. But it might make for a useful charge internally, as it shows him to be an even greater villain than if he were simply corrupt, as he was working for the main enemy.
27.01.2026 00:20 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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PLA purges intensify: Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli under investigation The rumors were true. Zhang Youxia, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and Liu Zhenli, member of the Central Military Commission and Chief of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission, are suspected of serious violations of Party discipline and law. After deliberation by the Party Central Committee, it has been decided to open a case for review and investigation against Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli.
25.01.2026 02:14 👍 0 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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Xinhua interview with PBoC chief; Venezuelan oil for the PRC; Guangming Daily reporter detained in Prague Another slow day, honestly things feel a bit weird, maybe because the rumors about Zhang Youxia I discussed on Tuesday have gotten stronger.
23.01.2026 00:02 👍 0 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0