Leo Feler

Gorsuch reminds Congress what its role in our democracy is supposed to be. www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/sli...

Here's a chart. What doesn't go up by as much in Oct & Nov can't go down by as much in Jan. Jan is a weird month because, with seasonal adjustments, losing fewer jobs = relative gain in jobs. As you mentioned, we'll get more data/evidence in the coming months.

It's a good jobs report, but isn't some of that mechanical?

From the NSA numbers, we didn't hire as much seasonal labor in Oct & Nov as we usually do, and so we didn't lay off as much in Jan as we usually do.

It's still consistent with a low hire, low fire labor market.

A video of Alex Pretti reading out the final salute of an unnamed veteran he cared for until the end of his life in the ICU, posted to Facebook by his son.

2. On Saturday, January 24, 2026, at about 8:50 am, I was getting ready to go to work when I heard whistles outside. I knew the whistles meant that ICE agents were in the area, so I decided to check it out on my way to work. I've been involved in observing in my community because it is so important to document what ICE is doing to my neighbors. Connecting to your local community and knowing who your neighbors are is something I profoundly value. 3. I drove to Nicollet Ave. and 26 where I could hear the whistles coming from. I turned south onto Nicollet. There were already several ICE agents there and they'd set up a sort of vehicle convoy on Nicollet and 28. There were also about 15 observers there, recording and observing ICE. 4. I saw ICE agents surrounding cars and punching car windows. I also saw them stopping vehicles further down Nicollet, so I backed up because I didn't feel safe continuing on. 5. I noticed a man sort of acting to help traffic move more smoothly. He helped me find a place to park. I got out with my whistle and my camera. I went over to him and said something like, "I'm going to film and use my whistle." 6. It seemed like most ICE activity was happening a little farther down the street from us, near 27th. Someone was being thrown to the ground.

7. I started recording. There was an agent by a car across the street. Two observers were a few feet away from the agent, blowing their whistles. One was wearing a backpack. 8. I and the man who was observing and helping direct traffic were standing in the street. There was a phone in the man's hand recording a video. 9. An agent approached and asked us to back up, so I moved slowly back onto the sidewalk. 10. The man stayed in the street, filming as the other observers I mentioned earlier were being forced backward by another ICE agent threatening them with pepper spray. The man went closer to support them as they got threatened, just with his camera out. I didn't see him reach for or hold a gun. 11. Then the ICE agent shoved one of the other observers to the ground. Then he started pepper spraying all three of them directly in the face and all over. The man with the phone put his hands above his head and the agent sprayed him again and pushed him. 12. Then the man tried to help up the woman the ICE agent had shoved to the ground. The ICE agents just kept spraying. More agents came over and grabbed the man who was still trying to help the woman get up. All three of the observers looked to have been badly affected by the pepper spray. I could feel the pepper spray in my eyes.

13. The agents pulled the man on the ground. I didn't see him touch any of them—he wasn't even turned toward them. It didn't look like he was trying to resist, just trying to help the woman up. I didn't see him with a gun. They threw him to the ground. Four or five agents had him on the ground and they just started shooting him. They shot him so many times. 14.1 don't know why they shot him. He was only helping. I was five feet from him and they just shot him. 15. The video I recorded of what happened accurately depicts the events leading up to the agents shooting him and several minutes afterwards. The video is attached as Exhibit 1. 16. I have read the statement from DHS about what happened and it is wrong. The man did not approach the agents with a gun. He approached them with a camera. He was just trying to help a woman get up and they took him to the ground. 17. I feel afraid. Only hours have passed since they shot a man right in front me and I don't feel like I can go home because I heard agents were looking for me. I don't know what the agents will do when they find me. I do know that they're not telling the truth about what happened. I've heard that other witnesses might have been arrested and taken to the Whipple Building.

The request includes a declaration from a witness who filmed today's shooting of Pretti.

Read their words:

"I feel afraid. Only hours have passed since they shot a man right in front me and I don't feel like I can go home because I heard agents were looking for me.

Another horrific ICE shooting in Minneapolis. Man wrestled to the ground by federal agents, then shot multiple times.

www.reddit.com/r/Minneapoli...

@startribune.com is there: www.startribune.com/ice-raids-mi...

Statement by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell YouTube video by Federal Reserve

Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

Pope Leo:

Who's Spending and What Does That Imply For Growth? The weight of the evidence suggests an economy that's considerably more fragile than some of the data--remember when we used to get data?--are showing.

Great substack by @jaredb-econ.bsky.social on who's driving consumer spending & what that means for economic growth. The economy is more fragile than it seems on the surface. In Numerator data, we see lower-income HHs cutting back on discretionary purchases.

econjared.substack.com/p/whos-spend...

Thanks to @bencasselman.bsky.social and @colbylsmith.bsky.social for featuring my comments. Here's a chart showing that spending on everyday household items tends to be more equal across income quintiles but has been growing more unequal over the past few years.

www.nytimes.com/2025/10/19/b...

I think it's -38K for manufacturing and -78K for professional & business services.

Statement from Fed Gov Lisa Cook:

“President Trump purported to fire me “for cause” when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022.”

The BLS Can’t Be Replaced by the Private Sector Government statistical agencies provide breadth and context that private firms can’t match.

The President firing the BLS Commissioner last week stirred up many criticisms agency. One that I found most troubling is the idea that the private sector could do it better. No, there's no substitute for the BLS as I argue in my
@opinion.bloomberg.com piece: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

This wouldn't even cover the higher costs the average American family will pay because of tariffs.

$3.3 Trillion in imports annually * 20% effective tariff rate = $660 Billion. Divide this by 132 million households in the US and each household is paying $5,000 a year in tariffs.

If equity traders are not pricing-in all this tariff chaos, one possibility is they think either the Supreme Court will determine these tariffs are unconstitutional or Congress will eventually, perhaps after the midterms, stop abdicating its responsibilities and reverse these tariffs.

Video Stocks rise after Trump’s sweeping new tariffs take effect President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs finally took effect on Thursday, slapping levies on dozens of countries and risking price increases for a host of everyday goods.

My piece on ABC News this morning.

Article 1, Section 8 of the US Constitution:

The CONGRESS shall have the power to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises...

To regulate commerce with foreign nations...

abcnews.go.com/US/video/sto...

Looming problems from BLS statistics politicization. Social security benefits and many long term labor market contracts are indexed to the CPI. BLS makes the CPI. Recipients care about indexed cost of living increases, a lot.
/1

"Outside recession" is doing a lot of work here. Big revisions aren't unusual during economic turning points.

This is a gerrymandered map of Illinois showing what Illinois Congressional districts could look like in retaliation for Texas changing its Congressional districts in an attempt to gain an unfair advantage in the upcoming House elections.

Looking forward to our new Congressional districts in Illinois.

In the same way your doctor administers various tests and the data from those tests flow in to provide a more complete picture of your health, the BLS gets data that flows in to provide a more complete picture of the health of the economy. Revisions to the diagnosis are common as more data flows in.

Video Economist says Bureau of Labor Statistics data is 'very objective' Leo Feler, chief economist at Numerator, discusses how the Bureau of Labor Statistics collects and reports data, and what the firing of Commissioner Erika McEntarfer means for the agency's future.

The BLS is like going to the doctor for preventive screenings. If there's bad news, you want to know it so you can take early and preventive action...

abcnews.go.com/US/video/eco...

It has been the honor of my life to serve as Commissioner of BLS alongside the many dedicated civil servants tasked with measuring a vast and dynamic economy. It is vital and important work and I thank them for their service to this nation.

Trump fires commissioner of labor statistics after weaker-than-expected jobs figures slam markets Trump accused BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer of being a political appointee who was manipulating jobs data.

It's not as if people won't realize the jobs market is slowing and inflation is rising. But they'll figure out the hard way -- as they're looking for jobs, negotiating wages, shopping for everyday items.

This is going to make it harder for policymakers to react in time.
www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/t...

Americans Are Sick of Inflation. There Is a Lesson for the Fed. Price hikes are still consumers’ top concern even as official inflation rates slow, Leo Feler writes in a guest commentary.

Thanks to @barrons.com for featuring my op-ed on why the Fed is right to wait before continuing to cut interest rates.

www.barrons.com/articles/fed...

We can already see that these tariffs are raising more revenue for the US Treasury, and pre-tariff import prices haven't fallen, so Americans are the ones paying for these tariffs. It's a consumption tax. And it's a tax that hits lower income consumers harder than higher income consumers.

But this is still bad for US consumers. We can't produce bananas and coffee in the US. We're a labor scarce country. Even if we produce more cars in the US, are we going to do it with more labor or more automation? I don't see a way that the average American benefits from all these tariffs.

I think the "elation" might be that it's just bad rather than catastrophic. 15% effective tariff rates are not as bad as 30%, and Trump originally anchored at 30%.

It's not every day that @tracyalloway.bsky.social mentions you in her Odd Lots newsletter. I have officially peaked!

cc: my all-star co-authors @shaciogluhoke.bsky.social and Jack Chylak.

www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

Thanks @tracyalloway.bsky.social and @bloomberg.com for featuring our work.

And will all of that sugar be produced in the US or will it be imported from countries subject to 50% tariffs? Because the US can't produce that much sugar.