Tracy @bsky.social's Avatar

Tracy @bsky.social

@taiping2

Retired internist. Bookworm. True blue. Meet me in the land of hope and dreams. Let freedom ring.πŸ’™

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12.11.2024
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Latest posts by Tracy @bsky.social @taiping2

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Actuarial Warfare: How Seven Insurance Letters Closed the World’s Most Critical Chokepoint and Why Markets Are Mispricing Duration by 300% Private Reinsurance, IRGC Fragmentation, Interceptor Depletion, and a Dead Nuclear Fatwa Have Produced a Crisis No Military Victory Can Resolve

"A carrier strike group is designed for blue-water power projection, not littoral escort through a corridor where a $500 contact mine can cripple a $4 billion destroyer."
open.substack.com/pub/shanakaa...

11.03.2026 14:50 πŸ‘ 726 πŸ” 247 πŸ’¬ 56 πŸ“Œ 15
11.03.2026 14:53 πŸ‘ 2293 πŸ” 659 πŸ’¬ 261 πŸ“Œ 38

"Another Middle East war is exactly what the young voters and voters of color who flocked to Trump in 2024 did not sign up for."
Greg Sargent on how the supposed political "realignment" is unraveling.

11.03.2026 12:34 πŸ‘ 155 πŸ” 41 πŸ’¬ 10 πŸ“Œ 3

He thinks he can just change the channel and tune out the consequences of his reckless illegal war.

11.03.2026 14:19 πŸ‘ 295 πŸ” 70 πŸ’¬ 16 πŸ“Œ 3

Absolutely, flabbergastingly insane.

11.03.2026 14:21 πŸ‘ 4268 πŸ” 1154 πŸ’¬ 232 πŸ“Œ 37
11.03.2026 14:31 πŸ‘ 1866 πŸ” 579 πŸ’¬ 57 πŸ“Œ 23
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Indivisible's Ezra Levin On No Kings, Letting Go, And Building A Mass Pro-Democracy Movement In America March 28th is the next No Kings day. Sign up, or build an event yourself. Let's make this day the biggest No Kings day yet!

Just dropped new pod w/@ezralevin.bsky.social of @indivisible.org. It's a great conversation w/one of our most important leaders in this challenging moment.

Let's work to make #NoKings 3/28 a day of joy and celebration of our democracy and of America πŸ‘‡
www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/indivisibl...

10.03.2026 23:54 πŸ‘ 66 πŸ” 33 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1

Big is right. They are hiding the truth of this war daily and in a thousand ways.

10.03.2026 22:21 πŸ‘ 259 πŸ” 119 πŸ’¬ 10 πŸ“Œ 2
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Joe Rogan: "It just seems so insane based on what he ran on. I mean, this is why a lot of people feel betrayed. He ran on no more wars and these stupid, senseless wars. And then we have one that we can't even really clearly define why we did it."

10.03.2026 22:38 πŸ‘ 137 πŸ” 39 πŸ’¬ 20 πŸ“Œ 2
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Great quotes in military history.

@atrupar.com

10.03.2026 11:35 πŸ‘ 7149 πŸ” 1857 πŸ’¬ 631 πŸ“Œ 217

This is what Trump meant by saying the war was "very complete, pretty much."

All that's left is the commitment of ground troops and the global repercussions, so probably just a day or two more, right?

10.03.2026 17:20 πŸ‘ 496 πŸ” 119 πŸ’¬ 23 πŸ“Œ 3

bsky.app/profile/fact...

10.03.2026 17:45 πŸ‘ 157 πŸ” 36 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 2

The core revelation here is that Trump has lost the public *on the mass deportations themselves* and not just on ICE's brutal tactics. We have been arguing this for months but media has simply refused to acknowledge it. Now so obvious that it can't be avoided

10.03.2026 19:11 πŸ‘ 1084 πŸ” 405 πŸ’¬ 42 πŸ“Œ 9

This war is more a manifestation of a personality disorder than any coherent strategy. You knew that, but @edwardluce.bsky.social frames it well and persuasively in his latest excellent column.

10.03.2026 20:00 πŸ‘ 122 πŸ” 46 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 2

If you’re roughly my age, it’s wild to reflect on the optimism for the future Americans felt when Obama was elected β€” young Americans spontaneously took to the streets to celebrate! β€” and contrast with what we face today. The falloff over the past 18 years is hard to process.

09.03.2026 15:56 πŸ‘ 30257 πŸ” 5123 πŸ’¬ 1720 πŸ“Œ 473

Trump is a titanic f*ck up, part a million.

bsky.app/profile/jfal...

09.03.2026 23:09 πŸ‘ 171 πŸ” 35 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 1

This level of incoherence about things that matter would generate a call for removal in every other major institution in the Western world other than the American Presidency.

09.03.2026 23:03 πŸ‘ 365 πŸ” 110 πŸ’¬ 20 πŸ“Œ 4
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Vance: "When people like Kamala Harris send our sons and daughters, our young people, to fight in stupid wars, it is the young generation that carries the burden of that. We're gonna stop sending our young people to far away lands. We are not the policemen of the world."

09.03.2026 23:37 πŸ‘ 129 πŸ” 46 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 4
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JD Vance (2024): "β€ŠAll of the really terrible world conflicts, they almost always come from incompetent leadership...You can't just think about the immediate consequence. You've gotta ask yourself, 'what is the second order and the third order consequence?'"

10.03.2026 00:02 πŸ‘ 109 πŸ” 30 πŸ’¬ 9 πŸ“Œ 5
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β€œ.. Here's a fun fact: The United States now has fewer manufacturing jobs today (12.573M) than it did in March 2018 (12.576M) when Trump first started his tariff wars:”

- @scottlincicome.bsky.social
www.bls.gov/charts/emplo...

09.03.2026 18:50 πŸ‘ 799 πŸ” 306 πŸ’¬ 13 πŸ“Œ 11

Trump is a titanic f*ck up, part a million.

09.03.2026 20:26 πŸ‘ 157 πŸ” 40 πŸ’¬ 15 πŸ“Œ 0

New Quinnipiac poll shows Trump continuing to crater:

37-57 overall approval
39-58 on economy
38-57 on handling of Iran

The kicker: 55% say Iran did NOT pose an imminent threat to the US, while only 39% say it did

He's really settling in at that 38% number on many fronts, isn't he

09.03.2026 20:57 πŸ‘ 613 πŸ” 189 πŸ’¬ 66 πŸ“Œ 18

In an ideal world, the guy who controls the nukes and the village idiot would be two separate people.

09.03.2026 21:11 πŸ‘ 645 πŸ” 157 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 8
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Iran’s Other Leverage: WATER

open.substack.com/pub/thecycle.... Water πŸ’¦ and oil: Iran can devastate the region with strategic strikes on sources of potable water and oil transport routes and infrastructure

09.03.2026 16:41 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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The Third Gulf War Is Both Illegal And A Terrible Mistake. It Needs To End, Now The new Trump War price shocks are going to do enormous damage to an already weakened US economy.....

Trump's war is illegal and a terrible mistake. And it needs to end as soon as possible.

My latest πŸ‘‡

www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/the-third-...

09.03.2026 15:58 πŸ‘ 117 πŸ” 38 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1
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The Third Gulf War Is Both Illegal And A Terrible Mistake. It Needs To End, Now The new Trump War price shocks are going to do enormous damage to an already weakened US economy.....

open.substack.com/pub/simonwdc.... No surprise that the hateful moron who bankrupted his own casino should go on to bankrupt the world. The 78 million who voted for the orange 🍊 king were conned by his vows to avoid war

09.03.2026 16:32 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

This sort of thing is always hit with, "LOL he doesn't care he'll never face voters again." In fact, he does care. He has privately said he fears being impeached by a Dem House. And I don't know who I need to tell this to, but presidential approval matters in midterms.

09.03.2026 11:51 πŸ‘ 533 πŸ” 136 πŸ’¬ 29 πŸ“Œ 4
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We are a very stupid country

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/o...

09.03.2026 14:57 πŸ‘ 789 πŸ” 240 πŸ’¬ 53 πŸ“Œ 26
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Trump: "Kamala would get us into World War III…All of your sons and daughters will end up getting a draft notice, a thing called the draft. 'Dad, what's this?' 'Oh, congratulations, you've been drafted into the military. You're going to fight a war.'"

08.03.2026 23:48 πŸ‘ 200 πŸ” 84 πŸ’¬ 19 πŸ“Œ 8
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Trump: "I'm not going to start a war, I'm going to stop wars…Under Trump we will have no more wars, no more disruptions, and we will have prosperity and peace for all…I am the candidate of peace, I am peace."

09.03.2026 01:39 πŸ‘ 147 πŸ” 68 πŸ’¬ 14 πŸ“Œ 5