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Election Yard

@electionyard.com

Election commentary, sans sleeves. Voting is (still) awesome.

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21.05.2024
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Latest posts by Election Yard @electionyard.com

Boy this GA-14 special election snuck up on me. This is probably going to an April runoff given the sheer number of candidates in the race.

10.03.2026 14:22 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Virginia early voting seems pretty strong so far

Many places close to 2025 numbers

Likely means partisans on both are paying attention

That’s usually who votes this early

We’ll see if there is drop off later bc less engaged voters aren’t as tuned in as last year

10.03.2026 01:18 πŸ‘ 20 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Internal poll, but the race certainly bears watching. 2 1/2 more months of GOP runoff to come.

09.03.2026 12:28 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Generic Ballot Polling:

DEM: 47%
GOP: 42%

Morning Consult / March 1, 2026

08.03.2026 18:00 πŸ‘ 39 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 2
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NEWS β€” An anti-gerrymandering group says it has enough signatures to force a November vote on Missouri’s new 7–1 GOP congressional map, drawn to flip the Kansas City-based seat held by Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D).

If voters reject the map, Democrats would likely retain MO-05.

07.03.2026 18:19 πŸ‘ 69 πŸ” 33 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 2
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Early voting begins today in Virginia on the redistricting referendum. If you don't get out today, don't worry about it - early voting goes until April 18th. www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law...

06.03.2026 13:29 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

NEW: Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales says he will NOT run for re-election β€” but he'll serve out the rest of his term.

06.03.2026 04:25 πŸ‘ 486 πŸ” 128 πŸ’¬ 34 πŸ“Œ 16
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Gubernatorial appointee would become Oklahoma’s next U.S. senator until voters can decide β€’ Oklahoma Voice Gov. Kevin Stitt would have 30 days to appoint a new U.S. senator should Markwayne Mullin resign to accept a Cabinet position in the Trump administration.

Gov. Kevin Stitt would have 30 days to appoint a new U.S. senator should Markwayne Mullin resign to accept a Cabinet position in the Trump administration.
buff.ly/lhT2MaH

05.03.2026 21:17 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

WASHINGTON (AP) β€” Trump says he's replacing Homeland Security Secretary Noem with GOP Sen. Markwayne Mullin.

05.03.2026 18:53 πŸ‘ 346 πŸ” 71 πŸ’¬ 60 πŸ“Œ 80
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How Latino Voters Helped James Talarico Win in Texas (Gift Article) The state legislator’s apparent strength with Latino voters in the Democratic primary for Senate suggested that he might be able to make inroads with a crucial demographic that has shifted away from h...

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

05.03.2026 12:20 πŸ‘ 16 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 3

Well holy shit

05.03.2026 01:02 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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🚨 BREAKING

Utah GOP Congressman Burgess Owens announces he will not run for reelection this year.

I reported this morning that sources close to Owens expected him to retire.

utahpolitics.news/owens-bows-o...

04.03.2026 22:12 πŸ‘ 49 πŸ” 11 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 7

Not quite ballgame here, but Virginia will vote in April on redistricting and then figure it out later.

04.03.2026 21:50 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

While we were all sleeping, the Texas Senate/Dem race was called for Talarico. Dems have their nominee, but the Republicans won't until late May.

04.03.2026 12:13 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Steve Toth unseats Dan Crenshaw in GOP primary Steve Toth, one of the most conservative members of the Texas House, framed his challenge of Dan Crenshaw as a referendum on the ideological future of the Republican Party.

Breaking: State Rep. Steve Toth beat incumbent U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw for the Republican nomination in Texas’ 2nd Congressional District, according to @apnews.com results.

04.03.2026 06:32 πŸ‘ 71 πŸ” 19 πŸ’¬ 7 πŸ“Œ 4
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Rep. Chip Roy headed to runoff in Texas AG race Trump withheld an endorsement in the race to replace Ken Paxton.

🚨 Rep. Chip Roy is headed to a runoff in the Texas attorney general race.

He'll face off against state Sen. Middleton.

04.03.2026 03:45 πŸ‘ 50 πŸ” 17 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Democrats have held the Mass Senate district in 1st Middlesex. Vanna Howard wins it for the Democrats with 58% in a three-candidate race.

04.03.2026 03:43 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Hard to see what Crockett's path is at this point. Either way, the Dem race will be decided tonight, while Cornyn & Paxton have another two and a half months of slugging it out.

04.03.2026 03:39 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Dallas is finally on the board - Crockett leads there as expected, but Talarico still has a 6-point lead statewide. It's his race to lose.

04.03.2026 03:14 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Former Senate nominee Sam Brown will not run for open Congressional seat in Nevada - The Nevada Independent His decision sets up a crowded primary for the safely Republican seat that is open for the first time in 15 years.

The race to replace retiring Rep. Mark Amodei is more open than ever, after presumed favorite Sam Brown, who ran for U.S Senate in 2024, decided Tuesday not to throw his hat in the ring.

Read about it here: thenevadaindependent.com/article/form...

04.03.2026 03:00 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Digging for results in the Mass 1st Middlesex Senate special election. It's not going great. So far, I've only found results for Tyngsboro, which had the Dem winning.

04.03.2026 02:55 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I really hesitate to offer strong opinions on the Dem TX-Sen race with Dallas County still off the board for another 20 minutes or so.

04.03.2026 02:41 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Asa Buck posted a huge number in his home of Carteret County and NC-01's GOP primary is now a footrace. Buckhout still just barely ahead. NC's threshold for a runoff is everyone under 30% so unlikely there will be one here.

04.03.2026 02:34 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

TX-23: Tony Gonzales is leading his primary, but under 50%. Runoff a distinct possibility.

04.03.2026 02:31 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Dems appear on their way to a flip in the Arkansas HD-70 special. GOP only won it by 2 points in 2024, so this was a target for sure.

04.03.2026 02:22 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Not looking good for Dan Crenshaw in TX-02. He's down 18 points with 63% in.

04.03.2026 02:16 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Former Yankees 1B Mark Teixeira is leading in his GOP primary in TX-21. Could win without a runoff if the trends continue.

04.03.2026 02:03 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Laurie Buckhout seems to be on her way in NC-01 GOP. She was the nominee in 2024. However, Asa Buck's county (Carteret) still is out.

04.03.2026 01:51 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Cornyn is doing fine in Texas. He and Paxton will finish 1-2 in the primary - question is if there will be a runoff (and as of now, I think that's a yes). Hunt seems to be pulling just enough.

04.03.2026 01:48 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Travis County dropped and Talarico has padded out a good-sized lead. A few more big counties need to fill in but this is starting to trend his way.

04.03.2026 01:45 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0