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Nick Roy

@nicholasroy.me

energy modeler, economist, cat dad | he/him | views my own focused on subnational carbon markets and national power policy research associate @rff.org Work: https://www.rff.org/people/nicholas-roy/

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Latest posts by Nick Roy @nicholasroy.me

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Ca$ino Album Listening | Baby Keem YouTube video by Baby Keem

Returning to bluesky to tell you one of the best albums of 2026 will be this baby keem album. 7 songs in and this is already a classic: www.youtube.com/live/VYp1-GV...

20.02.2026 05:25 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Large Labubu Model

29.09.2025 14:00 πŸ‘ 29 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Corner solutions revisited

31.08.2025 00:11 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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If/Then: Unintended Effects of Recent Federal Actions on Electricity Prices If the administration’s push to increase US dependence on fossil fuel–powered electricity generation is implemented as intended, then higher electricity rates and more uncertainty over future electric...

New policies aimed at increasing energy affordability could make prices worse. ⚑🏠

In a recent If/Then blog, RFF research finds that rolling back clean energy incentives could create more volatility in energy markets and raise costs.

Read more: www.resources.org/common-resou...

28.08.2025 14:20 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Calling all transit fans! Let your voice be heard. πŸš‡
Β 
πŸ—³οΈ Vote on the exterior design for our new 8000-series rail fleet! Voting will close at 11:59 PM on August 22. Winning concept will be announced next week.Β 
Β 
Vote before time runs out: wmata.questionpro.com/a/TakeSurvey...

18.08.2025 15:07 πŸ‘ 72 πŸ” 37 πŸ’¬ 23 πŸ“Œ 29
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Insightful @ucenergyinstitute.bsky.social post from @severinborenstein.bsky.social on California refineries. It'll get you up to speed on the facts, opportunities, and tensions as the California legislative session begins this week.
energyathaas.wordpress.com/2025/08/18/c...

Great opening figure!

18.08.2025 15:39 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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Spent so much time writing about clean air act repeal that I forgot to replace my air purifiers! We are going the direct air capture route because the actors below refuse to install scrubbers.

13.08.2025 13:45 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Not in the current version. The goal here is to illustrate the wholesale price volatility of fossil dependent grids. We want to dive deeper into the uncertainty effects on retail prices at the state level, but it requires more specific institutional details about uitlities and RTOs/ISOs. One day!

11.08.2025 18:17 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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New paper from EPRI and Epoch AI: Frontier AI training runs are projected to consume 1-2 gigawatts each by 2028 and exceed 4 GW per run by 2030 (up from ~100-150 MW today)

11.08.2025 15:19 πŸ‘ 21 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1

all my homies live in a low dimensional feature subspace

09.08.2025 00:45 πŸ‘ 30 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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New blog post with my colleague on how new policy decisions expose fossil dependent grids to greater electricity price uncertainty.

www.resources.org/common-resou...

08.08.2025 13:04 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Also includes analysis of OBBBA and OBBBA + CPS repeal impacts on household electricity expenditures. We also incorporate more recent electricity demand projections that EPA excluded from their analysis.

06.08.2025 21:10 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Hidden Costs of Repealing EPA’s Carbon Pollution Standards: Consequences for the Environment, Households, and Society Hidden Costs of Repealing EPA’s Carbon Pollution Standards: Consequences for the Environment, Households, and Society

For those curious about the impacts of EPAs Carbon Pollution Standard repeal.

www.rff.org/publications...

TLDR:
- health + climate damages > savings in compliance costs
- health damages outweigh compliance cost savings 2-4x.
- health + climate damages outweigh compliance cost savings 4-8x.

06.08.2025 21:10 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I think one mental model of renewables was that the government had anywhere from neutral to positive association with them. I think this is the first time we’re seeing direct opposition to this technology in the US in such open ways. We don’t really know what comes of that

05.08.2025 12:12 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

State carbon markets are the policy laboratory for US climate policy we all should be watching. Especially as we watch federal support for carbon emissions reductions evaporate.

31.07.2025 14:29 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Federal climate action is slowing, but states are using emissions trading systems to cut emissions and raise state revenue. RFF Research Associate Nicholas Roy explains how in this new In Focus video πŸ‘‡

31.07.2025 13:36 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1

What does the One Big "Beautiful" Bill mean for the US energy transition, household and business energy costs, electricity supplies and emissions? We've published a quick summary report of our findings here: doi.org/10.5281/zeno... #OBBB
πŸ”ŒπŸ’‘

02.07.2025 21:59 πŸ‘ 32 πŸ” 9 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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Opinion | A carbon tariff is the right way to confront China on trade Climate-friendly tariffs would penalize countries that undercut U.S. companies with dirtier production.

This Op-Ed on a U.S. carbon tariff gets lots of basic stuff wrong.

Unlike authors' claims, a U.S. carbon tariff

1. Won't address PRC competition
2. Either raises lots of revenue or lowers GHGs (not both)
3. Weakens incentives to adopt domestic U.S. climate policy. 🧡 1/

#econsky #climatesky

24.06.2025 07:15 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 2

I agree with all of Kyle’s critiques and would add 2 more:

1. The piece cites Australia and Canada as countries where voters rejected carbon prices, but that’s not true. In AUS it’s called a β€œsafeguard mechanism” and was put in place in 2023. CAN kept the price for industries the focus of the piece

24.06.2025 08:20 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

the 2028 phaseout is under commence construction instead of placed in service like the house bill. Big deal!

16.06.2025 23:31 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1

Senate Finance text is out. Solar and wind out by 2028 except one weird carveout. Batteries keep full ITC /PTC and expanded component eligibility in 45X?

(Text keeps transferability but gets rid of 5-year MACRS depreciation on *all* zero-emissions tech. Bad for clean firm!)

16.06.2025 22:43 πŸ‘ 71 πŸ” 26 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 3

Read the full paper here: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adt5665

Or the two-page summary: restservice.epri.com/publicattach...

Or the tl;dr thread: bsky.app/profile/bist...

@aafawcett.bsky.social @jessedjenkins.com @nicholasroy.me @aliciaszhao.bsky.social

11.06.2025 18:48 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
Using California’s cap-and-trade revenue to lower electricity prices | emLab

With @cagovernornewsom.bsky.social's budget out, CA cap-and-trade reauthorization is fully underway.

Today, we release a UCSB emLab analysis showing how C&T revenue can significantly lower California's too-high retail electricity prices.

Exec summary, paper, online calculator below.

Short 🧡1/

19.05.2025 20:35 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 2
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UCSB researchers just released a great analysis of how to use the state's cap-and-trade program revenues to invest in energy affordability. 1 pager, policy brief, and online calculator are all great tools! emlab.ucsb.edu/projects/usi...

19.05.2025 22:07 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I think "baffling" rhetoric is what he is muddying more so than the politics (of course there is some of that too). It is a risky experiment that could be justified if there is meaningful policy progress. I share your skepticism but am optimistic that meaningful outcomes could materialize.

18.05.2025 14:42 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

This was a great breakdown of the political economy in California. Another element to this is the national stage of Newsom v. Trump creating a "your with us or against us" vibe to California legislating. Second order to what you describe, but courageous leadership (from either side) could elevate it

18.05.2025 13:09 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Great thread unraveling right now that is breaking down the political history of California's cap-and-trade and how we got to today's reauthorization.

16.05.2025 19:37 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Wow. I am waiting with bated breath.

16.05.2025 19:36 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Projected Impacts of Repealing the Section 45Y and 48E Technology-Neutral Clean Electricity Tax Credits Projected Impacts of Repealing the Section 45Y and 48E Technology-Neutral Clean Electricity Tax Credits

Many are saying the current reconciliation proposal is equivalent to a full repeal of the IRA. We analyzed the repeal of clean electricity tax credits in an earlier issue brief.

Household, fiscal, and emissions impacts all included!

www.rff.org/publications...

13.05.2025 19:38 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Great points! Ultimately I guess it matters less given the extent of FEOC and other restrictions.

I’m still not sure transferability is hindered substantially if it weren’t for additional restrictions placed on these credits.

12.05.2025 23:08 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0