China has set its annual growth target at 4.5%-5%, the lowest in decades.
Even so, it isn't a realistic number, as China's fiscal and financial systems are increasingly inefficient tools to maintain domestic growth.
By enacting policies that support the manufacturing and deployment of clean energy, states in the Southeast can drive a significant increase in new capacity on the grid and in key manufacturing sectors, while also crowding in meaningful private investment and new job growth. rhg.com/research/ele...
Whatever new policies are announced at the Two Sessions, China will have to do less with less, due to the long, unaddressed decay of its financial and fiscal systems:
Since Q1 2018, $29 billion in US clean tech manufacturing investment has been canceled, with 79% of that just in the year of 2025, tied to 24 projects. Most (97%) of the canceled investments in 2025 occurred in the EV supply chain.
www.cleaninvestmentmonitor.org/reports/us-q...
The Trump administration's efforts to nearshore manufacturing supply chains in the Western Hemisphere are bound to collide with a harsh reality: Most countries in the Western Hemisphere are not competitive for ex-China diversification, and in the few that are, like Mexico, costs are rising.
Tune in to a webinar tomorrow, February 25th from 1-2pm ET, where experts from Rhodium Group and RMI will present new modeling on how industrial policies can meet rising electricity demand while catalyzing private investment and job creation in Southeastern states rmi.org/event/webina...
By enacting policies that support the manufacturing and deployment of clean energy, states in the Southeast can drive a significant increase in new capacity on the grid and in key manufacturing sectors, while also crowding in meaningful private investment and new job growth. rhg.com/research/ele...
Learn more about the new Q4 2025 and full-year 2025 data on clean investment in the US from the Clean Investment Monitor, here: www.cleaninvestmentmonitor.org/reports/us-q...
On today's episode of @heatmap.news Shift Key, Hannah Hess w Rhodium talks about new data, which shows the clean electricity sector in the US is accelerating, while at the same time clean manufacturing and the EV supply chain in particular are experiencing turbulence.
heatmap.news/podcast/shif...
We’re often asked: Why are Chinese EVs so cheap? Comparing costs between Western and Chinese automakers in China shows that subsidies matter, but they’re only part of the story:
Despite the Q4 slowdown, clean investment in 2025 reached $278 billion, a record high and a 5% increase from 2024. Read more about recent trends in the Clean Investment Monitor's new Q4 2025 update: www.cleaninvestmentmonitor.org/reports/us-q...
New: In Q4 2025, clean investment in the US totaled $60 billion, a 23% decline from Q3. For the first time in our tracking, investment in Q4 was lower (11%) than the same period in the previous year, Q4 2024.
In the latest episode of the @gmfus.bsky.social China Global Podcast, Logan Wright and Charlie Vest explain the main takeaways of their latest paper on the economic escalation dilemma China faces around use of force against Taiwan.
"Rhodium Group modeling projects that without big EPA rules underpinned by the finding, U.S. emissions in 2035 would be 26-35% below 2005 levels. If the rules were intact? A steeper decline of 32-44%."
www.axios.com/2026/02/12/t...
Excitement about nuclear energy in the US is soaring amid increasing energy demand, data center buildout, and bipartisan support. In a recent note, we discuss why now may be the best time in decades for new nuclear energy and what needs to happen for it to really take off rhg.com/research/nuc...
Over the past year, German political leaders, central bankers, business associations, and unions have begun talking openly about the risks of a “China shock.”
The rhetoric, however, has not been matched by decisive policy action.
Read our latest:
The momentum of Chinese outbound FDI dropped in Q4 2025, with only $19.2 billion in newly announced transactions. Greenfield investment led the slowdown, with only a single new billion-dollar project announced.
Most importantly though, China's overseas investment continues to be outpaced by the growth of its export machine. Chinese firms continue to build out manufacturing capacity at home faster than abroad, and exports remain the primary way that these companies serve overseas markets.
Third, the share of auto investments has fallen to its lowest share in Chinese FDI since 2020, as investment the EV value chain slows. Basic materials and energy have picked up the slack though, now representing more than half of all Chinese outbound investment.
Second, overall investment grew, but manufacturing investment fell for the second year in a row. Except for North Africa, newly announced investment in manufacturing facilities fell across all regions, with a particularly significant drop in Central and Eastern Europe.
For one, greenfield investments dominated, with capital-intensive projects in mining, data centers, and energy helping push the total to $100 billion.
Last year, Chinese companies announced $124 billion worth of new FDI transactions, an 18% increase from the year before. Completed investments also grew 14% to $72 billion.
What are the big takeaways from the 2025 data?
In the last quarter of 2025, investment in US clean tech manufacturing fell to $9bn, a 29% drop from Q4 2024. Roughly $8bn of investments were cancelled, setting a record as the highest quarterly value of cancellations in our Clean Investment Monitor database.
climatedeck.rhg.com/clean-invest...
Read more about what these currency effects mean for European industry:
In Q3 2025, EU import values from China rose only 0.2% year-on-year while import volumes rose 7%. Meanwhile, EU export values to China fell by 6% over the same period, due to weak Chinese demand and unfavorable relative prices for European exporters.
Since the beginning of 2025, currency effects account for roughly half of the widening discrepancy between EU import volumes from China and EU import values.
The combined effect of weak Chinese export prices and a weak RMB compared to the euro has contributed to a fast increase in import volumes from China, at the expense of local producers that cannot compete on price.
The Clean Investment Monitor's newly updated data on US clean manufacturing investment, announcements, and cancellations in Q4 2025 is now available on ClimateDeck, our free data platform. You can explore the data in detail, including by technology and location climatedeck.rhg.com/clean-invest...
"Roughly $8 billion in clean manufacturing investments were terminated in Q4 2025, the highest-ever quarterly amount of cancellations. Overall, investments in the sector dropped 29% in comparison to the same period in 2024."
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