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Ruben C. Arslan

@ruben.the100.ci

Bayescurious evidence enthusiast at the100.ci Topics: evolution, ovulation, mutation, intelligence, personality, sexuality, R, open science & source tools. https://rubenarslan.github.io/

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Latest posts by Ruben C. Arslan @ruben.the100.ci

Now published in Collabra!
online.ucpress.edu/collabra/art...
Using test data from TwinLife (N=9,980, Culture Fair Test CFT 20-R), we show that Regularised Prediction and Poststratification yields IQ scores that differ by up to 19 IQ points (mean 4.19 pts) from those reported in the CFT 20-R manual

10.03.2026 11:26 πŸ‘ 24 πŸ” 9 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 1
Keep calm and be transparent: advice from scientists who retracted their papers Retractions correct the scientific record, but they have stigma attached to them. Some in the research community want that to change.

We're thrilled to announce the Ctrl-Z Award, a US$2,500 prize for researchers β€œwho discover substantial errors in their published work and take meaningful steps to correct the scientific record."
Covered by @nature.com today; read more here: centerforscientificintegrity.org/2026/03/10/a...

10.03.2026 15:37 πŸ‘ 334 πŸ” 142 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 15

oof I have some examples. do methodologists as second authors count tho?

10.03.2026 13:10 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I think this notion better maps onto some other methods used in psych, which I plan to blog about and which you also won't like.
People have tried both the budget idea (but what sets your budget) and ranking preferences/traits in various ways (pattern metrics). Usually ignoring measurement models.

10.03.2026 12:14 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

IIRC Brendan (?) had something along the lines that the h2 of partner traits was zero-ish?

10.03.2026 07:56 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Not unique, no, but this makes it very obvious (and still people ignore the resulting confounding)

10.03.2026 05:52 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Yes, so this is a mistake people sometimes make but I focused on the bounded scale issue because a) that is less arguable b) it recurs in part 2 c) whether excess is good or bad is not so consequential because most ideals are so close to the bounds that you can’t exceed them by much.

10.03.2026 05:49 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I'm not sure. Your jargon is foreign to me and vice versa I guess? I wouldn't say I stressed calculating edges as the problem but lack of adjustment.

09.03.2026 20:58 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Some psychologists. Others do other things with different problems.

09.03.2026 20:26 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
me being mildly cross at best about a low ceiling

me being mildly cross at best about a low ceiling

This is me living up to my new year's resolution that I'll keep getting mad about low ceilings in measurement and elsewhere.

09.03.2026 13:03 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Think inside the box, part 1: The guy Euclidean distance told you not to worry about Romance could be so simple if only we were two-dimensional. You just find the closest available partner and go for it. To find out who is closest, you might compute a distance measure. The Euclidean d...

New post from me on The 100% CI. Think inside the box, part 1: The guy Euclidean distance told you not to worry about
www.the100.ci/2026/03/09/t...

09.03.2026 13:03 πŸ‘ 36 πŸ” 8 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 3
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Clinical trial reforms that once seemed radical How randomized controlled trials, preregistration, and results reporting became standard practice.

New post!

It may seem ambitious to ask for individual patient data from clinical trials to be shared, anonymized, for use by other researchers.

But the history of medicine shows us that clinical trials have already undergone a series of transformations that once seemed equally bold:

04.03.2026 16:57 πŸ‘ 75 πŸ” 23 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 3
Screenshot of the "Does that use a lot of energy?" online app

Screenshot of the "Does that use a lot of energy?" online app

Hannah Ritchie has built a fun little tool where you can compare energy usage of various products and activities.

This is super helpful imho, because it's so hard to develop intuitions even just about the scales involved here.

hannahritchie.substack.com/p/does-that-...

03.03.2026 09:27 πŸ‘ 153 πŸ” 66 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 5

Sounds promising! Will you redirect the broken links or will they stay broken unless updated?

03.03.2026 08:20 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

eg my R package was kicked off CRAN because it downloaded data from a link that broke. This required manual action to fix

28.02.2026 10:08 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

As I understand it, but maybe I don’t, OSF never fixed the old links. They all broke. Over time Google reindexes, so you were able to click a freshly reindexed PDF, not the originally indexed one. But Google penalizes sites that break links and links in other places won’t sort themselves out.

28.02.2026 10:07 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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New newspaper headline for your Intro to Causal Inference lecture just dropped

27.02.2026 12:57 πŸ‘ 165 πŸ” 33 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 7

Please don't send me voice messages though.

27.02.2026 12:59 πŸ‘ 8 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Even before chatbots, I was absolutely the kind of person who'd rather program for hours to avoid a few minutes of rote manual (aural?) labour.
Except now it didn't take hours to program, maybe one or two. Just two hours of voice messages and I'll actually come out ahead.

27.02.2026 12:59 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
GitHub - rubenarslan/signal_transcriber: Vibe coded Mac app to transcribe Signal voice message using sigtop, ffmpeg, whisper, swiftdialog Vibe coded Mac app to transcribe Signal voice message using sigtop, ffmpeg, whisper, swiftdialog - rubenarslan/signal_transcriber

The only feature I miss in Signal compared to WhatsApp was transcription of voice messages. So, I had Claude code a pipeline to do this locally on Mac using sigtop+ffmpeg+whisper at the click of a button. github.com/rubenarslan/...

27.02.2026 12:59 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

the example I shared in this convo from anne's google scholar is still broken. by now, google has removed the OSF PDF link because the original link was never restored.
that you can find OSF PDFs on Google Scholar might be a) newly indexed ones b) manuscript where authors manually added PDFs

27.02.2026 11:46 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

@briannosek.bsky.social this is still broken and google scholar does not show PDFs for OSF anymore. Doesn't this seem quite important to OSF's core function?

27.02.2026 08:02 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Assistant Professor Tenure Track for Social Psychology with a Focus on Environmental Psychology - UniversitΓ€t Bern UniversitΓ€t Bern is looking for Assistant Professor Tenure Track for Social Psychology with a Focus on Environmental Psychology

Our institute is hiring
1. an assistant professor (with TT) for Social Psychology (focus: environmental psychology)
ohws.prospective.ch/public/v1/jo...

2. an assistant lecturer (with TT) for Experimental Personality Psychology
ohws.prospective.ch/public/v1/jo...

26.02.2026 15:20 πŸ‘ 24 πŸ” 31 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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Pace of ecology drives the tempo of visual perception across the animal kingdom - Nature Ecology & Evolution Using phylogenetic comparative methods across 237 species from disparate phyla, the authors show that species with fast-paced ecologies have higher temporal resolution of perception.

Pace of ecology drives the tempo of visual perception across the animal kingdom www.nature.com/articles/s41... - new paper with Clinton Haarlem, Cliodhna Hynes and colleagues

Different species see the world as fast as they need to...

24.02.2026 10:40 πŸ‘ 87 πŸ” 37 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 1
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🧡on my new paper "Synthetic personas distort the structure of human belief systems" w Roberto Cerina I'm v excited about...

🚨 Do synthetic samples look like human samples?

We compare 28 LLMs to the 2024 General Social Survey (GSS) to find out + develop host of diagnostics...

25.02.2026 19:46 πŸ‘ 166 πŸ” 78 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 19

Per protocol analysis strikes again!

Folks, if you randomize but then donβ€˜t analyze some of the people who got randomized (maybe because they didn’t adhere to instructions, maybe because they dropped out), randomization will no longer do all the heavy causal inference lifting.

25.02.2026 17:28 πŸ‘ 190 πŸ” 56 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 3

to punish editors for sending poorly fitting requests? I mean I know it's mainly disorganisation, but IDK as the bright line between spam and special issues has eroded, I don't feel the same professional responsibility toward all

25.02.2026 10:18 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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We regret to inform you that your paper cannot be considered for publication, but we encourage you to submit it to our GOLD Open Access sister journal

23.02.2026 10:41 πŸ‘ 50 πŸ” 15 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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2/ We use Claude Code Skills to build a three-layer agentic system for large-scale reanalysis. What once took years of manual harmonization across 92 papers now runs in days.

18.02.2026 19:21 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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latent variables/confirmatory factor analysis Β· Issue #304 Β· paul-buerkner/brms In a structural equation modeling framework, we often define latent unmeasured variables with indicators. For example library(lavaan) data(PoliticalDemocracy) mod <- 'ind60 =~ x1 + x2 + x3' fit <- ...

Epic news from a GH issue on {brms} github.com/paul-buerkne...

20.02.2026 19:23 πŸ‘ 23 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0