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18Z forecast sounding for Boston shows a saturated column (PWAT 1.61"), tall/skinny CAPE, and slow storm motion vectors. Warm rain processes dominate in a weakly unstable but strongly forced environment. Rainfall rates of 1.5–2"/hr likely. Flash flooding a growing concern.
Radar at 3:55 PM shows a line of strong to severe storms firing west of I-495, but notice how activity weakens dramatically as it nears the coast. A stable marine layer is keeping Boston and the South Shore capped for now. Biggest threats remain inland with heavy rain, gusty winds, and hail. 🌩️🌊
With that said, a stable marine layer is entrenched across eastern MA , evident in the cooler temps and higher dewpoint spreads near the coast. This should keep severe storm activity well northwest of the Boston metro today. Storms will struggle to survive the marine influence.
Strong instability (2000–3000+ SBCAPE) + modest shear (25–35 kt) supports scattered severe storms, mainly north of the CT/RI border. Damaging wind is the main threat, hail possible near I-90. Flash flooding also a risk with slow movers and high rainfall rates.
Even with limited daytime heating, we’re already seeing a severe storm fire early this morning. With CAPE building and boundaries in play, this sets the stage for more numerous and potentially severe storms this afternoon, especially 2–8 PM. Stay alert. #MAwx #SevereWeather
Wildfire smoke throws another wrench into summer forecasting—thick plumes like this can knock daytime temps down several degrees by cutting solar radiation. Models don’t always handle it well, so lean low on heat expectations when skies look like this.
We’re not trying to be alarmist… but with summer fast approaching and models now hinting at more 50s and rain around 6/10 in New England, it may be time to temper expectations. Patterns like this love to stick—we’ve seen it too many times before.
At this point, we should just pencil in “rain, clouds, and coastal low” for every Saturday through October. ECMWF for 6/7 says: why stop the streak now?
An impressively deep sub-985 mb coastal low is spinning off the southern New England coast today, with central pressure near 984 mb. For reference, Boston’s May record low MSLP is 983 mb (29.03”) set on May 24, 1967. This system is flirting with historic territory.
Low pressure (~987 mb) lingers over southern New England Saturday, keeping Boston in a cool, unsettled pattern. With the system vertically stacked and slow to exit, expect waves of showers and drizzle rotating through—especially in the morning. 😞 😞
Sea breeze is evident slicing through eastern Massachusetts on visible satellite. Clearer skies and cumulus development to the west mark the inland warm sector, while stable marine air and subsidence dominate to the east.
Textbook low-level jet signature on radar tonight—note the surge of heavier rain and embedded convection lifting into SE Mass from Buzzards Bay. That arc is classic LLJ-driven moisture transport, enhancing rainfall rates ahead of the main band. #MAwx #NorEaster
Classic Nor’easter radar signature here: a sharp deformation band arcs from central MA into NH, delivering torrential rain, while a pronounced subsidence zone over Lowell into Boston creates a dry slot. In winter? This setup screams blizzard. #mawx #noreaster
Classic Nor’easter setup on today’s maps: deep coastal low, strong onshore flow, and intense banding into eastern MA. Subsidence to the west = dry slot. If this were winter, Boston would be buried in a blizzard with 2–4”/hr snow rates and whiteout winds. Textbook case.
Cool pattern looks to hold into early June across New England. While not every day will be chilly, the ECMWF ensemble suggests below-average temps persist with no sustained heat in sight. Summer vibes delayed
Today may be the warmest day left in May for Boston—soak it up while you can! A cooler, unsettled pattern is poised to take over by Memorial Day weekend, with below-average temps lurking just to our southwest. This might be your last real taste of summer warmth this month.
Memorial Day Weekend in New England is looking more like early April than late May — cool, cloudy, and likely wet at times. Pack the rain gear, not the beach towels. No classic beach days in this forecast.
SBCAPE building across the I-95 corridor this afternoon with values topping 1500 J/kg from PA through NJ and into southern New England. With minimal CIN and strengthening low-level flow, thunderstorms—some possibly strong—are primed to fire.
Deep moisture plume overhead this morning across southern New England — check out the precipitable water values on this HREF ensemble map! 🌧️ High PWATs (~1.5–1.7") are fueling widespread rain across Massachusetts, with embedded heavier downpours possible. #MAwx #NEwx
EPS guidance for early-mid May shows New England under the influence of a broad trough aloft. Heights point to a cooler, more unsettled pattern with increased chances for showers and below-normal temps. Early summer-like warmth looks delayed for now.
Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms today driven by steep 700–500 mb lapse rates (8–9.5°C/km) rotating around an upper low. Combined with anomalously low freezing levels, the enhanced mid-level cooling supports robust updrafts and efficient mixed-phase processes.
Peer review is a vital part of science—it’s made my work stronger, and I hope my feedback has helped others, too. Grateful to have reviewed for Weather, Climate, and Society this past year.
Safe to say spring is finally winning. While there will be a few ups and downs after this weekend’s nor’easter, the 8–14 day outlook shows a strong push of above-normal warmth across the East. The pattern has shifted. Let the pollen (and patio season) begin!
If you liked this rainy weekend (for whatever reason), next weekend looks just as gross—if not worse. ECMWF ensemble shows another soaking for the Northeast, with over an inch possible in parts of New England. Keep the umbrellas handy. #MAwx #NEwx #springsoaker
Why’s it raining in Boston? A plume of tropical moisture from the Gulf is streaming northward, feeding into a frontal system. This Total Precipitable Water map shows deep moisture overhead—perfect setup for steady rain. #BostonWeather #Meteorology #TPW
Awful….
Satellite & model data show an inverted trough developing as low pressure stays well southeast and upper energy moves in from the west. Weak onshore flow at 850/925mb is pulling clouds inland off the ocean.
A strong 850mb jet of 50-60 knots is expected to develop over the region on Monday. **IF** we mix to that level (convection from sunshine dependent) we're likely going to see gusts that could approach 60 mph in Eastern Mass. Regardless, a very windy day tomorrow.
The atmosphere is exceptionally moist, with PWATs near 1.3 inches and a powerful 70-80 knot low-level jet (LLJ) aloft. This combination will readily generate 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall on top of any snow. Poor drainage could lead to areas of street flooding.
🌨️❄️ Warm air at 850mb (1st image) is melting snow into rain, but subfreezing surface temps (2nd image) are refreezing it as sleet/freezing rain. Icy mess continues this morning #WinterWx #Sleet #FreezingRain