@kostyack
Consulting on climate change & the energy transition for NGOs & foundations at Kostyack Strategies. Senior Contributor at Forbes.com & Senior Fellow at ceea.us. All opinions expressed here are solely my own.
Considering that a large number of fossil gas projects are moving quickly through the planning pipeline, it's really important that we get reliable forecasts, and NOT buy into the tech industry's hyped-up "race to win AI" emergency, supported by the utility industry for its selfish reasons.
Perhaps the most important observation: "Many regulated utilities have an incentive to overstate load growth and interconnection success rates to justify additional rate-based investments in generation and other infrastructure."
Then there's the problem of data center operators “double counting,” starting development on far more sites than they intend to build, to preserve options.
In making its demand forecasts, NERC relies on customer-supplied information. As Grid Strategies points out, the data center customers have no clear methodology for their load
forecasts. So, no window into how supply chain constraints could affect projects.
Grid Strategies challenges many of its assumptions. For example NERC didn't consider many reliability issues are resolved with faster interconnection queue processing times and more interregional transmission lines. And...
NERC Risk Area Summary 2026-2030
The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has issued a Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) that raises grid reliability concerns due to, among other things, rapid data center growth. But...
Asset manager Steve Schwarzman is someone who investors might want hold accountable for helping destroy their portfolio value. Perhaps someday... most likely after Senator Warren's prophecy comes true and we're picking up the pieces.
College or foundation endowments and public pensions have a choice of where to put their $. Time to use that leverage to challenge asset managers & portfolio companies about any role they might have in the growing authoritarian threat to portfolio value.
Far too many institutional investors make their work all about stock-picking and engaging on company-level risks. But systemic risks like the decline of the rule of law–and rising GHG emissions–require systems-level strategies.
@warren.senate.gov to institutional investors at @ciicorpgov.bsky.social today: protecting your portfolios requires speaking out on Trump's unprecedented corruption. It's "like an army of giant termites ..chomping their way through the entire foundation of our markets — and they are moving fast."
I work with investors trying to get market actors to address systemic climate risks. Geopolitical instability, climate destabilization, two sides of the same market failure
When geopolitical stability is treated by the markets as a free good, this is what shareholders get, MAGA incompetence and broken supply chains..
SB 261 has broad bipartisan support, which makes sense because it simply calls for assessments by utilities and the state regulator of the optimal utilization of existing grid assets.
Last year NGOs filed litigation arguing that grid operators are discriminating against renewables by expediting fossil gas projects in the interconnection queue. This week grid operator MISO proved them right, expediting studies for 8 GWs of gas-fired power plants & batteries. No renewables.
Proponents of flexible demand now have a lobbying coalition. Utilize is new coalition of companies including Google and Tesla aiming to create new state policy incentives to tap into underused electricity grid capacity. Members claim credit for helping get SB621 passed by the VA legislature.
Could it be as simple as: nuclear doesn't threaten the fossil fuel buildout of the next 10 years, solar does? Related: VSPs love to talk about all-of-the-above, code for "I would never do anything to threaten the fossil incumbents."
Wanted: another CEO who will keep this site from being enshittified.
Happy to see so many experts agreeing that the ability of large load customers to pay off their investments is a big question mark. Presumably the Iran war and its destabilization of the economy only increases urgency of protecting utilities and ratepayers from this credit risk. And the complexity.
Headline: Oil surges above $100 as Gulf states cut back production; WTI nearly touched $120 a barrel at high
So great that MAGA did everything possible to kneecap the electric-vehicle market in the US, while doing everything recklessly possible to ramp up the cost of fuel.
/s
Current policies scenario: the data center industry drives more than 90 GW of new gas capacity between 2026 and 2035 and 335 GW by 2050.
Key finding: under a "current policies" scenario, more than 60% of the generation needed to power data centers comes from gas and coal by 2035.
It's unfortunate how many clean energy experts assume renewables will continue capturing all marginal US capacity additions. They should listen to @jigarshahdc.bsky.social & also look at this @ucs.org report showing how much the data center boom will boost fossil gas unless we change course.
Newly released footage shows an ICE agent killing Rubin Ray Martinez, 23, in his car in Texas.
"He was shot at point-blank range through his side window by an ICE agent who was in no danger."
www.bbc.com/news/article...
Time to focus on this fall's elections, arguably the most important one in our lifetimes. Let's start asking candidates how they're helping constituents by preaching "AI dominance" and other fantasies invented by the AI and crypto industries. Also: what is all that campaign cash buying.
Afraid you are right. Another industry conference with conversations designed to offend no one. Always a mistake to be tantalized when the word "accountable" is put on a conference agenda.
Assumed this piece would discuss how Trump's Iran invasion was destroying demand for oil by highlighting its volatility. Instead it focuses on the flip side: "efficiency, electrification, solar, and batteries don’t create volatility—they quietly erase future demand with compounding certainty."
County Supervisor: "We negotiated in good faith. And Google’s response was to go find a local government that will ask for less.”
Next week's Council of Institutional Investors meeting should be wild. Especially the session on holding PE firms accountable. Any bets on which asset owners will call bs on the entire shadow banking project?
Follow Jeff for clear explanations of why we who depend on a stable climate in for a rough 2026 and 2027. In short, El Niño will exacerbate global heating. Driven primarily by our continued fossil fuel dependency - a fact that should be emphasized in all discussions of the punishing heat waves.
It's doubtful that policy makers will want to say no to data centers, but perhaps they could start asking tough questions about the heavy reliance on fossil fuels to power them is a smart move from a security perspective. And the other forms of hubris in the buildout plans.