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Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

@betanalpha

Zealous modeler. Annoying statistician. Reluctant geometer. Support my writing at http://patreon.com/betanalpha. He/him.

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Latest posts by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha

in england they spell it lmaou

10.03.2026 21:20 πŸ‘ 784 πŸ” 75 πŸ’¬ 45 πŸ“Œ 8

Earlier I implied that I escorted yo' momma through the Strait of Hormuz. I apologize for the misinformation. Yo' momma's too fat for such a narrow passageway and whatnot.

10.03.2026 20:56 πŸ‘ 1461 πŸ” 238 πŸ’¬ 16 πŸ“Œ 8
Gennady Gorin, Ph.D. Senior Scientist applying stochastic models for therapeutic discovery

I am currently looking for work, so do not hesitate to reach out if this experience sounds interesting! You can find the rest of my portfolio at gennadygorin.github.io. 13/13

09.03.2026 20:18 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
08.03.2026 21:16 πŸ‘ 6717 πŸ” 2501 πŸ’¬ 16 πŸ“Œ 5
The Geordi LaForge meme demonstrating hesitation for a conventional β€œcausal” direct graphical model, showing only observed variables and unobserved confounders, and enthusiasm for a directed graphical model that represents a full joint probabilistic model including all observed variables and all latent/unobserved variables.

The Geordi LaForge meme demonstrating hesitation for a conventional β€œcausal” direct graphical model, showing only observed variables and unobserved confounders, and enthusiasm for a directed graphical model that represents a full joint probabilistic model including all observed variables and all latent/unobserved variables.

07.03.2026 21:26 πŸ‘ 14 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
The Geordi LaForge meme demonstrating hesitation for a conventional β€œcausal” direct graphical model, showing only observed variables and unobserved confounders, and enthusiasm for a directed graphical model that represents a full joint probabilistic model including all observed variables and all latent/unobserved variables.

The Geordi LaForge meme demonstrating hesitation for a conventional β€œcausal” direct graphical model, showing only observed variables and unobserved confounders, and enthusiasm for a directed graphical model that represents a full joint probabilistic model including all observed variables and all latent/unobserved variables.

07.03.2026 21:26 πŸ‘ 14 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1

β€œLarge Deviations with Deuschel” sounds like weekly opinion column or talk show segment…

07.03.2026 15:59 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

move slow and repair things

06.03.2026 12:06 πŸ‘ 3728 πŸ” 1209 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 0

Perpetual reminder: one does not model a likelihood function, one derives a likelihood function from an observational model and a particular observation.

06.03.2026 04:06 πŸ‘ 15 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Perpetual reminder: one does not model a likelihood function, one derives a likelihood function from an observational model and a particular observation.

06.03.2026 04:06 πŸ‘ 15 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Why sample from a categorical pseudo-random number generator when you can be ridiculous? This is how I now draw contest winners over on patreon dot com, www.patreon.com/c/betanalpha.

04.03.2026 22:47 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Why sample from a categorical pseudo-random number generator when you can be ridiculous? This is how I now draw contest winners over on patreon dot com, www.patreon.com/c/betanalpha.

04.03.2026 22:47 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

In the time before Noether's Theorem.

17.08.2024 14:19 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

restaurant manager: hey so, sorry to bother you, but is that a service animal? it's just, we have a policy-

jabba the hutt: je wonna wonga, bazda wahota shonga

salacious b crumb: AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

restaurant manager: ah. ok. cool

04.02.2026 05:49 πŸ‘ 1823 πŸ” 342 πŸ’¬ 9 πŸ“Œ 3

β€˜Waffle’ the noun and β€˜waffle’ the verb are not etymologically related.

The noun is related to the Old English β€˜wefan,’ which means β€œto weave.”

The verb is related to the English β€˜woff,’ which means β€œto yelp.”

FWIW: we never waffle on eating waffles.

05.08.2025 14:00 πŸ‘ 984 πŸ” 186 πŸ’¬ 27 πŸ“Œ 28

Statistics is more than just choosing between black box models.

03.03.2026 05:50 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Statistics is more than just choosing between black box models.

03.03.2026 05:50 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Generative Modeling Discord Server | Michael Betancourt Get more from Michael Betancourt on Patreon

I'm too depressed to dunk on the constant stream of bad statistics takes on the site. If, however, you're looking to lurk through or engage in productive discussions on (narratively generative) probabilistic modeling then drop by the Discord server I set up, www.patreon.com/posts/genera....

02.03.2026 16:50 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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Generative Modeling Discord Server | Michael Betancourt Get more from Michael Betancourt on Patreon

I'm too depressed to dunk on the constant stream of bad statistics takes on the site. If, however, you're looking to lurk through or engage in productive discussions on (narratively generative) probabilistic modeling then drop by the Discord server I set up, www.patreon.com/posts/genera....

02.03.2026 16:50 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
02.03.2026 15:58 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Determining the mediant of two rational numbers graphically. The slopes of the blue and red segments from the origin to two points in the first quadrant are two rational numbers, using these as two edges of a parallelogrom, the slope of the diagaonal, drawn as a green segment, is their mediant.

Determining the mediant of two rational numbers graphically. The slopes of the blue and red segments from the origin to two points in the first quadrant are two rational numbers, using these as two edges of a parallelogrom, the slope of the diagaonal, drawn as a green segment, is their mediant.

The 'mediant' of two fractions a/b and c/d is (a+c)/(b+d).

Beginners sometimes add fractions this way by mistake.

But it's important in number theory...

... and I just learned it has a simple geometrical meaning, too!

27.02.2026 18:41 πŸ‘ 25 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0
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don't even care

24.02.2026 16:30 πŸ‘ 498 πŸ” 92 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 3
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Today, in honour of WEB DuBois's birthday in 1868, the @publicdomainrev.bsky.social features the hand-drawn infographics DuBois made with his students to depict the conditions of African-American life in 1900.

Arts-based pedagogy all those years ago!
buff.ly/3kdWqRD

23.02.2026 13:53 πŸ‘ 177 πŸ” 76 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 7
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Happy 40th anniversary to "The Legend of Zelda" (released on February 21, 1986).

21.02.2026 10:07 πŸ‘ 5172 πŸ” 2106 πŸ’¬ 34 πŸ“Œ 121

Give up all hope ye who model here…

19.02.2026 18:01 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Clausal Inference

< warning klaxon >
INCOMING CASE STUDY
< begin Star Fox boss music >

HTML: betanalpha.github.io/assets/chapt...
PDF: betanalpha.github.io/assets/chapt...

19.02.2026 04:33 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

The _real_ cool kids aren’t -maxxing everything, they’re -uncertaintyquantifyying.

19.02.2026 01:42 πŸ‘ 24 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
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Get more from Michael Betancourt on Patreon writing about modeling building and statistical inference.

As always, a huge thanks to my supporters over on patreon dot com, www.patreon.com/c/betanalpha. Covector+ supporters have enjoyed not only early access to this case study for the past month but also a long video review where I work through the entire piece.

19.02.2026 04:33 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Perhaps just for my own entertainment I also spend way too much time doing some software archeology to investigate some awkward behaviors and then demonstrate various ways to accommodate discretized observations.

19.02.2026 04:33 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

The models considered demonstrate pairwise comparison modeling and mixture modeling techniques, as well as how those techniques can be integrated together into consistent models. Each is also complemented with extensive prior modeling, prior checking, and retrodictive checking.

19.02.2026 04:33 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0