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Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt

@betanalpha

Zealous modeler. Annoying statistician. Reluctant geometer. Support my writing at http://patreon.com/betanalpha. He/him.

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06.07.2023
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Latest posts by Michael "Shapes Dude" Betancourt @betanalpha

linear approximations ARE real and CAN hurt you

13.03.2026 16:53 πŸ‘ 24 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Thank you.

13.03.2026 18:58 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Thank you.

13.03.2026 18:58 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

The truth can be harsh. That doesn’t mean that anything harsh is the truth.

13.03.2026 18:46 πŸ‘ 364 πŸ” 44 πŸ’¬ 9 πŸ“Œ 0
Chocolate Hamburgers

Credit: Beth Betancourt

Yields approximately 50 pieces.

Ingredients:
  24 tbsp (3 sticks) unsalted butter, softened
  396 grams granulated white sugar
  226 grams brown sugar

  3 large eggs, beaten
  2 tsp vanilla extract

  542 grams all purpose flour
  3 grams baking soda (0.5 tsp) 
  6 grams kosher salt (~1 tsp Morton)
 
  6 oz unsweetened chocolate, melted
  
  1 package (60 count) Haviland thin mints 
  (Zachary dark chocolate thin mints might be easier to find at the moment)

Dough:
  1. Cream butter and sugars.
  2. Combine eggs and vanilla.
  3. Whisk flour, baking soda, and salt.
  4. Add (2) and (3) to (1) in stages, mixing in between.
  5. Add melted chocolate and mix until the color is uniform.
  6. Chill batter for at least 2 hours.
  7. Shape into 1 inch balls (#60 dishes) and roll in granulated white sugar.
  8. Bake for 8-12 minutes at 350 oF,  rotating trays half way.s
  9. Cool on rack for 5 minutes.
  10.  While still warm, gently place thin mint between
         two cookies to form a hamburger (do not squeeze).

Chocolate Hamburgers Credit: Beth Betancourt Yields approximately 50 pieces. Ingredients: 24 tbsp (3 sticks) unsalted butter, softened 396 grams granulated white sugar 226 grams brown sugar 3 large eggs, beaten 2 tsp vanilla extract 542 grams all purpose flour 3 grams baking soda (0.5 tsp) 6 grams kosher salt (~1 tsp Morton) 6 oz unsweetened chocolate, melted 1 package (60 count) Haviland thin mints (Zachary dark chocolate thin mints might be easier to find at the moment) Dough: 1. Cream butter and sugars. 2. Combine eggs and vanilla. 3. Whisk flour, baking soda, and salt. 4. Add (2) and (3) to (1) in stages, mixing in between. 5. Add melted chocolate and mix until the color is uniform. 6. Chill batter for at least 2 hours. 7. Shape into 1 inch balls (#60 dishes) and roll in granulated white sugar. 8. Bake for 8-12 minutes at 350 oF, rotating trays half way.s 9. Cool on rack for 5 minutes. 10. While still warm, gently place thin mint between two cookies to form a hamburger (do not squeeze).

My mother passed away on Monday. She was, amongst many other things, a prolific baker. These are very good; give them a try.

12.03.2026 04:15 πŸ‘ 41 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
Chocolate Hamburgers

Credit: Beth Betancourt

Yields approximately 50 pieces.

Ingredients:
  24 tbsp (3 sticks) unsalted butter, softened
  396 grams granulated white sugar
  226 grams brown sugar

  3 large eggs, beaten
  2 tsp vanilla extract

  542 grams all purpose flour
  3 grams baking soda (0.5 tsp) 
  6 grams kosher salt (~1 tsp Morton)
 
  6 oz unsweetened chocolate, melted
  
  1 package (60 count) Haviland thin mints 
  (Zachary dark chocolate thin mints might be easier to find at the moment)

Dough:
  1. Cream butter and sugars.
  2. Combine eggs and vanilla.
  3. Whisk flour, baking soda, and salt.
  4. Add (2) and (3) to (1) in stages, mixing in between.
  5. Add melted chocolate and mix until the color is uniform.
  6. Chill batter for at least 2 hours.
  7. Shape into 1 inch balls (#60 dishes) and roll in granulated white sugar.
  8. Bake for 8-12 minutes at 350 oF,  rotating trays half way.s
  9. Cool on rack for 5 minutes.
  10.  While still warm, gently place thin mint between
         two cookies to form a hamburger (do not squeeze).

Chocolate Hamburgers Credit: Beth Betancourt Yields approximately 50 pieces. Ingredients: 24 tbsp (3 sticks) unsalted butter, softened 396 grams granulated white sugar 226 grams brown sugar 3 large eggs, beaten 2 tsp vanilla extract 542 grams all purpose flour 3 grams baking soda (0.5 tsp) 6 grams kosher salt (~1 tsp Morton) 6 oz unsweetened chocolate, melted 1 package (60 count) Haviland thin mints (Zachary dark chocolate thin mints might be easier to find at the moment) Dough: 1. Cream butter and sugars. 2. Combine eggs and vanilla. 3. Whisk flour, baking soda, and salt. 4. Add (2) and (3) to (1) in stages, mixing in between. 5. Add melted chocolate and mix until the color is uniform. 6. Chill batter for at least 2 hours. 7. Shape into 1 inch balls (#60 dishes) and roll in granulated white sugar. 8. Bake for 8-12 minutes at 350 oF, rotating trays half way.s 9. Cool on rack for 5 minutes. 10. While still warm, gently place thin mint between two cookies to form a hamburger (do not squeeze).

My mother passed away on Monday. She was, amongst many other things, a prolific baker. These are very good; give them a try.

12.03.2026 04:15 πŸ‘ 41 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Los Tacos No 1 offers some of the best tacos in the city, a buoy when you have to be in the proximity of Times Square. The salsa verde, however, is absolutely mild.

12.03.2026 00:46 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

in england they spell it lmaou

10.03.2026 21:20 πŸ‘ 897 πŸ” 83 πŸ’¬ 51 πŸ“Œ 8

Earlier I implied that I escorted yo' momma through the Strait of Hormuz. I apologize for the misinformation. Yo' momma's too fat for such a narrow passageway and whatnot.

10.03.2026 20:56 πŸ‘ 1868 πŸ” 301 πŸ’¬ 18 πŸ“Œ 8
Gennady Gorin, Ph.D. Senior Scientist applying stochastic models for therapeutic discovery

I am currently looking for work, so do not hesitate to reach out if this experience sounds interesting! You can find the rest of my portfolio at gennadygorin.github.io. 13/13

09.03.2026 20:18 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
08.03.2026 21:16 πŸ‘ 6782 πŸ” 2531 πŸ’¬ 16 πŸ“Œ 5
The Geordi LaForge meme demonstrating hesitation for a conventional β€œcausal” direct graphical model, showing only observed variables and unobserved confounders, and enthusiasm for a directed graphical model that represents a full joint probabilistic model including all observed variables and all latent/unobserved variables.

The Geordi LaForge meme demonstrating hesitation for a conventional β€œcausal” direct graphical model, showing only observed variables and unobserved confounders, and enthusiasm for a directed graphical model that represents a full joint probabilistic model including all observed variables and all latent/unobserved variables.

07.03.2026 21:26 πŸ‘ 15 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
The Geordi LaForge meme demonstrating hesitation for a conventional β€œcausal” direct graphical model, showing only observed variables and unobserved confounders, and enthusiasm for a directed graphical model that represents a full joint probabilistic model including all observed variables and all latent/unobserved variables.

The Geordi LaForge meme demonstrating hesitation for a conventional β€œcausal” direct graphical model, showing only observed variables and unobserved confounders, and enthusiasm for a directed graphical model that represents a full joint probabilistic model including all observed variables and all latent/unobserved variables.

07.03.2026 21:26 πŸ‘ 15 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1

β€œLarge Deviations with Deuschel” sounds like weekly opinion column or talk show segment…

07.03.2026 15:59 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

move slow and repair things

06.03.2026 12:06 πŸ‘ 3755 πŸ” 1215 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 0

Perpetual reminder: one does not model a likelihood function, one derives a likelihood function from an observational model and a particular observation.

06.03.2026 04:06 πŸ‘ 15 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Perpetual reminder: one does not model a likelihood function, one derives a likelihood function from an observational model and a particular observation.

06.03.2026 04:06 πŸ‘ 15 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Why sample from a categorical pseudo-random number generator when you can be ridiculous? This is how I now draw contest winners over on patreon dot com, www.patreon.com/c/betanalpha.

04.03.2026 22:47 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Why sample from a categorical pseudo-random number generator when you can be ridiculous? This is how I now draw contest winners over on patreon dot com, www.patreon.com/c/betanalpha.

04.03.2026 22:47 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

In the time before Noether's Theorem.

17.08.2024 14:19 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

restaurant manager: hey so, sorry to bother you, but is that a service animal? it's just, we have a policy-

jabba the hutt: je wonna wonga, bazda wahota shonga

salacious b crumb: AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

restaurant manager: ah. ok. cool

04.02.2026 05:49 πŸ‘ 1823 πŸ” 342 πŸ’¬ 9 πŸ“Œ 3

β€˜Waffle’ the noun and β€˜waffle’ the verb are not etymologically related.

The noun is related to the Old English β€˜wefan,’ which means β€œto weave.”

The verb is related to the English β€˜woff,’ which means β€œto yelp.”

FWIW: we never waffle on eating waffles.

05.08.2025 14:00 πŸ‘ 984 πŸ” 186 πŸ’¬ 27 πŸ“Œ 28

Statistics is more than just choosing between black box models.

03.03.2026 05:50 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Statistics is more than just choosing between black box models.

03.03.2026 05:50 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Generative Modeling Discord Server | Michael Betancourt Get more from Michael Betancourt on Patreon

I'm too depressed to dunk on the constant stream of bad statistics takes on the site. If, however, you're looking to lurk through or engage in productive discussions on (narratively generative) probabilistic modeling then drop by the Discord server I set up, www.patreon.com/posts/genera....

02.03.2026 16:50 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
Preview
Generative Modeling Discord Server | Michael Betancourt Get more from Michael Betancourt on Patreon

I'm too depressed to dunk on the constant stream of bad statistics takes on the site. If, however, you're looking to lurk through or engage in productive discussions on (narratively generative) probabilistic modeling then drop by the Discord server I set up, www.patreon.com/posts/genera....

02.03.2026 16:50 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 1
02.03.2026 15:58 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Determining the mediant of two rational numbers graphically. The slopes of the blue and red segments from the origin to two points in the first quadrant are two rational numbers, using these as two edges of a parallelogrom, the slope of the diagaonal, drawn as a green segment, is their mediant.

Determining the mediant of two rational numbers graphically. The slopes of the blue and red segments from the origin to two points in the first quadrant are two rational numbers, using these as two edges of a parallelogrom, the slope of the diagaonal, drawn as a green segment, is their mediant.

The 'mediant' of two fractions a/b and c/d is (a+c)/(b+d).

Beginners sometimes add fractions this way by mistake.

But it's important in number theory...

... and I just learned it has a simple geometrical meaning, too!

27.02.2026 18:41 πŸ‘ 25 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0
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don't even care

24.02.2026 16:30 πŸ‘ 500 πŸ” 92 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 3
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Today, in honour of WEB DuBois's birthday in 1868, the @publicdomainrev.bsky.social features the hand-drawn infographics DuBois made with his students to depict the conditions of African-American life in 1900.

Arts-based pedagogy all those years ago!
buff.ly/3kdWqRD

23.02.2026 13:53 πŸ‘ 177 πŸ” 76 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 7