Low end consumer hurting?
11.03.2026 14:32
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Low end consumer hurting?
Anyone know why consumer staples are getting whacked today?
Core CPI continues trending lower. 6-month runrate fell below 2.5% for the first time. (Hope this keeps heading lower to offset the pop in gas prices.)
Insert the Dumbledore shrug gif here.
I guess the question now is the duration. How long does this spike last. By the time you build a well, oil might be back to 70
Jet fuel up 70-80% since January. Fuel is 20-30%. So a 15-25% hit to margin on the airlines. Airfare increases coming.
To be fair, stocks went down like 20% before he taco's on tariffs
I'll take those odds.
Sooo... no taco this weekend then? (Fuck.)
I guess it depends on how long the increase lasts. The bet seems to be that any geopolitical spike is fleeting.
Each sentence was worse than the one before it.
I think he does like using the toys. But not when it affects stocks or gas prices. He's now bumping up against that limit. (My completely uneducated opinion.)
Oh interesting. My first thought was the opposite!
My unsubstantiated guess is that Trump will taco in the next few days. Not sure if the market will react or not. But I think he'll declare "victory" and pack it up.
Why? What changed?
S&P over the past 3 months below. We went through: an entire earnings season, an attack on Venezuela, a threatened attack on Greenland, a meltdown in software stocks, and now an all out war with Iran.
And yet... the high/low range here is only 2.9%. That's really something.
Here's my question: even if Trump tacos, will that stop the Iranian bombing of Hormuz? He'll need a ceasefire agreement.
Dow Jones vs S&P 500... Today is a great example of why the Dow Jones is broken. GS and CAT are over 20% of the index. And both are down today -3.5%ish. That's why it looks so much worse.
Brent crude. $84 looks like a ceiling. If it breaks that, maybe moves higher.
(Disclaimer: I dont know what I'm talking about.)
Rate cuts? What rate cuts? Futures now pricing only 1.58 cuts by yearend
Long SOXX / Short IGV
Yeah. One of two things has to happen:
(1) total defeat of Iran's rocket and drone capability
(2) ceasefire
Both things seem far away
Economist covering it now. But I'm surprised it's not getting more press. 20% of the world's oil supply is cut off. No one else concerned about that? NYT? WaPo?
Hurricane Sandy in NYC in 2012 used that, I think
Wow, huge reversal in International stocks over past two days. All of Feb's gains were erased quickly.
Only one of two things will reopen Hormuz:
(1) ceasefire
(2) stop all Iranian missiles/drones
Both seem far away at the moment.
Some great scenes with future Senator Fred Thompson! "This business will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it!" Seems appropriate
