Sam Freedman

I'd compare the markets right now to an exasperated parent trying to figure out why their toddler is crying.

How is it defined?

I've tried different ones but haven't stuck with any. What's the best?

People who know more than me say Claude is better than ChatGPT but I find the latter much better at research tasks.

Is that a common view? Or am I using Claude wrong? Or is better at things like coding but not research?

No! There's a lot of movement going on below the surface. Green gains are mostly coming from Labour and previous non-voters. I suspect Reform are losing a bit to non-voting and Tory but then the Tories are losing a few elsewhere.

Though it's interesting that even though Reform have dropped 4-5 points since last autumn the Tories haven't seen any improvement.

They were all negative last time and in 2019!

A lot of the improvement in Badenoch's ratings is down to Reform voters liking her more but they're not returning to the Tories.

Jonathan Powell's line that they fired her ten times but had to put her back every time because Brown insisted.

There was usually someone in there. Byers and Milburn in term one and then Ruth Kelly was financial secretary in term two. Admittedly I forgot Paul Boeteng did the Chief Sec job for so long.

Allows rival to build powerbases though. E.g. Blair always making sure the Chief Secretary to the Treasury was one of his allies....

We shouldn't rule out the possibility that the Andrea Jenkyns has had a labotomy.

To me that's still a recent event.

Whenever I speak to students I seem to find it impossible to mentally calibrate their age against events properly.

Last night in answer to a question I started talking about the expenses crisis before remembering they were all four years old when it happened and had no idea what I meant.

Public support for US attack on Iran down 10 points since last week. 59% oppose to 25% support. Tory supporters now evenly split. Another Keminaissance triumph.

I do not like it when my bank sends me emails with the word "geopolitics" in the title.

Remember "sharing the proceeds of growth"? Those were the days.

There is no funnier train station sign than "Cambridge home of Anglia Ruskin University". Everytime I see it I'm impressed all over again at the level of trolling.

I'm a freelancer with pretensions...

The list is 99% distinguished academics and one guy who writes a substack. Apologies to the distinguished academics.

The Academy of Social Sciences welcomes outstanding social scientists to its Fellowship in spring 2026 – Academy of Social Sciences

I've been appointed a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences - which is quite cool given I'm not a social scientist. Hoping for physics next.

acss.org.uk/news/the-aca...

Excellent assessment from @ldfreedman.bsky.social on the Middle East conflict.

What happens to Iran and in Iran?

Does Trump have an overall war plan? (spoiler : probably not).

Kind of weird when you can watch the global market collectively go "oh shit he is that crazy".

God they're irrelevant.

Rising stars Blake Stephenson and Jack Rankin? What about Bobson Dugnutt and Steve McDichael?

Trump told me that the Ayatollah was close to collecting all the infinity stones and had to be stopped.

"it is becoming increasingly hard to avoid the conclusion that the Trump administration has embarked on this operation without a plan, and is making it up as it goes along, as if they killed enough of the right people and destroyed enough Iranian assets everything would fall into place"

I guess my question is that given the lag from licences to oil is five years or so I'm not sure how it helps us with Trump or next winter. Doesn't mean it's a bad idea to give us more security in the 2030s... @timleunig.bsky.social

Making it up as they go along Where does the war in Iran go from here?

Latest assessment on US/Israeli attack on Iran. The administration continues to give the impression that it is making it up as it goes along. The choices for the Iranian regime remain dire but it continues to show defiance and cause international economic turmoil. open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/m...?

There are now more tech workers going from the US to Europe than the other way around