@70sbachchan
Alternately Defiant, Dispirited, and Despondent. Without illusions but not disillusioned. Focus on Climate, Inequality and Development. I co-edit the Polycrisis project and newsletter https://www.phenomenalworld.org/series/the-polycrisis/
51/ Listening to US & Israel hawks paraded on CNN etc saying this if you read between lines
" If Iran hits back we must escalate bc they're strong. If Iran doesn't hit back, we must finish the job bc they're weak. The only constant is more bombs,more killing,more $ on their forever war"- Ben Rhodes
50/ we are going to see weeks of market manipulation by Trump and his cabinet in coming months....
www.wsj.com/finance/stoc...
Again, the unifying 🧵 about Trump’s foreign policy is not realism or neo-royalism. It’s the extension of sexual assault/predation/partner abuse to IR. If he thinks you’re his macho pal, he’ll respect you/your sovereignty. If not, he’ll try to violate you & humiliate you. Epstein-ism, if you like.
One might even call it “predatory.” Well, I would: www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Concerning reports that Iran is attempting to mine the Strait of Hormuz. 1/
www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-mi...
49/ Three related questions for US navy opening Hormuz:
1 How will they do mine-clearing?
Iran has short-range ballistic missiles, missile-armed gunboats, fast small craft
2 How long would it take?
~months
3 How long will it take oil markets to recover?
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
48/ "US minesweepers successfully removed the mines in the Strait Of Hormuz that were never there after an oil tanker was escorted by a naval vessel that doesn't exist in an escalating war that will be over shortly." -- @woodyluvscoffee.bsky.social
40/ Trump cannot unilaterally end this war. This is the key point - the war ends when Iran AND US AND Israel decides it ends.
"... Tehran intends to fully exploit what it sees as one of its key advantages: its capacity to endure and absorb the costs of war..."
Sun Tzu (D-NY) - “When your enemy is making a mistake, fix it for him at great cost to yourself.”
Congress is expected to ask for $10s of billion Iran war supplemental
"House Appropriations Committee Chairman Tom Cole, R-Okla., told reporters last week that he would "expect" a supplemental funding request from the Department of War "well before the end of the year." bsky.app/profile/wash...
That’s more than half the annual budget of the National Science Foundation.
No wonder they want that supplemental.
It costs US military $1 to $3Billion a day inflicting death & destruction in Iran
President Eisenhower:"Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies...a theft from those who hunger & are not fed, those who are cold & are not clothed."
www.edchange.org/multicultura...
article confirms no one willing to tell grandpa that the game is up
BREAKING: Leaked Pentagon documents reveal highly classified CENTCOM war plans
The other reason that I think Iran does not currently want an agreement is that Mojtaba watched his dad, mom, wife, sister, and at least one child die in front of him in the initial airstrikes.
The dude (already more radical than his father) does not want a peace deal, he wants revenge.
No idea about the Iranian, but if someone killed Trump's family he'd bury them on a golf course to turn it into a tax deductible *memorial park.*
Russian oil now selling at a premium! Great job everyone!
1/ "Higher energy, fertilizer and transport costs – including
freight rates, bunker fuel prices and insurance premiums – may increase food costs and intensify cost-of-living pressures, particularly for the most vulnerable."
Excellent report by UNCTAD
unctad.org/system/files...
21/ Its day eleven. Hormuz is Closed. Fuel is trapped in Persian Gulf. Asian Countries now rationing fuel.
– Vietnam told people to WORK FROM HOME because they're running out of fuel
– Bangladesh started fuel RATIONING -limits on how much you can pump per vehicle
–Asia-wide petrol prices surging
47/ US military experts have been studying this question for decades. Read Prof Talmadge assessment of how difficult it would be to force open Hormuz as a military matter given Iranian capbilities.
Paper www.caitlintalmadge.com/uploads/8/5/...
Thread
bsky.app/profile/prof...
So who just made billions of dollars shorting oil for the few minutes that Trump's energy secretary Chris Wright had that post up?
Iran's foreign minister's response goes hard.
“Traders are selling Russian Urals to India at a premium of $4-$5 per barrel to Brent on a delivered basis upon arrival at Indian ports in March and early April, Reuters reported on Thursday, after the US gave Indian refiners a waiver to resume buying Russian oil.”
www.reuters.com/business/ene...
ah yeah, China, famously not using AI or facial recognition for any kind of surveillance
American and European sanctions on Russian oil since 2022 had forced urals to trade at a deep discount to Brent.
Guess what has happened since the American war on Iran and Iran’s trapping of Gulf Oil in Hormuz?
Everyone needs Russian oil suddenly to reduce pain. So urals now priced above Brent!
Also the first decent sized ship sunk in the Strait is going to be a giant hazard to navigation. Like if I were Iran and in full on "fuck the global economy" mode I'd tow a derelict out there and blow a hole in it and walk away.
26/ JP Morgan on how Operation Epic Fury would end:
"Resource risk will begin to outweigh increasingly marginal military gains and the conclusion to the conflict will come down to the three M’s : Munitions, Markets and Midterms."
Sorry...This ends when Iran decides it has achieved its objectives.
not every one racing to learn about oil, and non-western agency, shipping lanes, and insurance, and food and fertilizer markets, and missile launchers,
following oilheads like we were following epidemologist modellers in 2020....
Subscribe and read us here: www.phenomenalworld.org/series/the-p...
So glad polycrisis is over ;) @katemac.bsky.social
buttondown.com/polycrisisdi...
17/ "Never start a bombing campaign that will completely halt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz" is right up there with "never get involved in a land war in Asia” in terms of the classic blunders. -- Nate Silver
buttondown.com/polycrisisdi...