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Montana Skeptic

@montanaskeptic

Unloved by Elon (who once tried to get me fired), disgusted at "conservatives" who turned out to be Trump cultists, hoping Democrats will get healthier, and wishing Congress would do its damned job. I write at montanaskeptic.substack.com

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Latest posts by Montana Skeptic @montanaskeptic

The Republicans have worked so damned hard to become the party of gross fiscal irresponsibility (remember OBBBA?), and now the Democrats are fighting hard to take back that honor.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury rate recognizes that the competition will continue until we go over a cliff.

11.03.2026 17:57 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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Exclusive: Elon Musk's SpaceX weighs Nasdaq listing after seeking early index entry, sources say Elon Musk's rocket and satellite maker SpaceX is leaning toward listing its shares on the Nasdaq ​for what could rank as the biggest initial public offering of all time, according to four people famil...

Here's the news item from Reuters, which makes no bones about the fact that "for executives and early investors, that ​deeper liquidity could reduce the market impact of large sell orders once lockup periods expire"

insiders cash out, retirees get left with the bag

www.reuters.com/business/fin...

10.03.2026 16:07 πŸ‘ 133 πŸ” 27 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 1

for folks keeping track of this stuff at home, the real answer to the question "how on god's green earth is Tesla worth over a trillion dollars despite being a blatant scam grafted onto a failing car business?" is "because every new retirement account has to buy it as part of the S&P index"

10.03.2026 16:09 πŸ‘ 365 πŸ” 71 πŸ’¬ 7 πŸ“Œ 2

No surprise that Musk is running over local opposition & environmental concerns. Take comfort, though, this will all come to naught, as xAI is far behind in the AI race, and falling further behind as talented potential employees - aware of Musk's tyrannical reputation - find work elsewhere.

10.03.2026 23:18 πŸ‘ 11 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0
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Widening Middle East War No one can forecast the outcome in the short term. Guess? Yes. Multiple scenarios? Yes. Forecast with confidence? No! But there is history for guidance.

@davidkotok.bsky.social has some interesting data on the effects of the Hormuz Strait interdiction, along with useful historical reminders and a short list of financial indicators to watch.

dkotok.substack.com/p/widening-m...

10.03.2026 23:09 πŸ‘ 10 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Superb work from @keubiko.bsky.social on how Nasdaq & Musk, loving the age of index funds, are about to make certain that retail investors end up owning grossly overvalued garbage while the insiders hoover up the cash.

10.03.2026 13:49 πŸ‘ 26 πŸ” 7 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

It's a great and important book by a brilliant writer. Thanks for pointing me to it some years back, Andreas.

10.03.2026 12:43 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Williamson certainly believes EVs have their place, and can be beneficial. It's a nuanced piece and thank you for reading it.

10.03.2026 12:42 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
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EVs Are Not the Answer to Oil Shocks Investing in EVs does not correspond perfectly to less oil consumption.

Kevin D. Williamson, as usual, digs deeper than most on Chinese EVs and environmental reality:

"EV subsidies may be advertised as climate policy, but effectively they also are petrochemical subsidies."

thedispatch.com/article/chin...

10.03.2026 11:11 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 0

β€œHelp is on the way”

10.03.2026 10:04 πŸ‘ 20 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image Post image Post image

This makes me want vomit. Not sure what’s more disgusting - an issuer extorting a supposedly regulated stock exchange, or the exchange bending over for it. Index inclusion 15 days post-IPO. At a bare minimum this should be AFTER any lockups. Stuffing overpriced stock on 401(k) plans etc.

10.03.2026 10:23 πŸ‘ 84 πŸ” 15 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 2

Swisher’s typically excellent work, with characteristic deep research.

10.03.2026 03:16 πŸ‘ 14 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

being a hater doesn't pay well, but at least you get listed as a risk factor in their SEC filings

10.03.2026 02:37 πŸ‘ 254 πŸ” 39 πŸ’¬ 9 πŸ“Œ 0
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Opinion | In a War of Words, Trump Always Defeats Himself The public started out opposing the conflict inΒ Iran. That will be a problem if things go south.

Fine piece from Gerard Baker @wsj.com

"It was said of Churchill that he mobilized the English language & sent it into battle. Trump’s trick with the mother tongue is to douse it in gasoline, set it on fire & drop it in a dumpster in the middle of his own parade ground."

www.wsj.com/opinion/in-a...

09.03.2026 22:09 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Sorry, courageous Iranians. Trump is ready to cut and run.

09.03.2026 19:59 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0
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Officials grant deadline extension after discovering unusual Tesla pattern: 'Unduly burdensome' Tesla has requested and received a second deadline extension from federal safety regulators to hand over crash data tied to its Full Self-Driving software.

Tesla faces a deadline to submit data to NHTSA today as part of the agency's investigation into documented failures of the firm's "Full Self-Driving" system, after no fewer than two deadline extensions

www.thecooldown.com/green-busine...

09.03.2026 19:42 πŸ‘ 147 πŸ” 33 πŸ’¬ 6 πŸ“Œ 1

Isn't there a government agency that oversees wasteful spending?

09.03.2026 17:14 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 5 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

And I, too, would like to see the Jew haters stand up and take a bow. Good to know who they are. So, we come at it from different angles but get to the same place.

09.03.2026 19:14 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Yes

09.03.2026 18:08 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

1/n Something I've been building with Claude Code - may have some use and I might make it publicly available:

09.03.2026 16:44 πŸ‘ 33 πŸ” 4 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 1

If you don't play for a team - Team Red or Team Blue - you are free to think critically. If you can think critically, you would understand that Iran has been at war with the U.S. for 47 years, and is an apocalyptic theocracy bent on our destruction. But you evidently are a team player. Farewell.

09.03.2026 17:10 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Why I Won't Vote for Donald Trump Spoiler Alert: Because I'm a Conservative

"you guys"? Really? (see link)

Iran was determined to go nuclear and having a huge stock of missiles would have been insurance it could do so. You're blind if you don't see that.

montanaskeptic.substack.com/p/why-i-wont...

09.03.2026 16:57 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I doubt it can succeed without "boots on the ground," given that the IRGC is heavily armed and Iranian citizens are not armed at all. However, Iran is mostly Persian, with many highly educated citizens, a detestation of the regime, and a proud history. It would not be inconceivable.

09.03.2026 16:47 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

No one knows, Billy.

What do you think should have happened, and what do you think should happen now, as regards the hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of Iranians who will be killed, imprisoned, or further immiserated if there is no regime change?

09.03.2026 16:44 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Tesla β€˜Full Self-Driving’ drives through railroad crossing barriers in viral video A viral video shows a Tesla Model 3 on β€œFull Self-Driving” driving straight through railroad crossing barriers in the Los Angeles area, failing to detect the crossing gate entirely. The incident comes on the same day as NHTSA’s deadline for Tesla to turn over critical data from its investigation into FSD traffic violations β€” an investigation that specifically includes railroad crossing failures. more…

Tesla β€˜Full Self-Driving’ drives through railroad crossing barriers in viral video

09.03.2026 15:25 πŸ‘ 43 πŸ” 21 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 3

It is a very tall order. The Trump Admin should have first explained to Congress & US citizens why declaring war on Iran was necessary, why it needed to happen now, & how high the risk & cost would be to achieve regime change. It could have gotten some valuable buy-in. But Trump thinks he's king.

09.03.2026 16:39 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0

Any form of government that could find support from a majority of Iranians. Certainly not a radical theocracy.

09.03.2026 16:32 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

I don't feel that way at all. I fear a humanitarian crisis if either the current regime survives or collapses with chaos ensuing. Trump very foolishly promised "help is on the way" when he likely plans to cut & run. This should have first been debated in Congress, with some buy-in for regime change.

09.03.2026 16:26 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I think that is probably the most compelling argument for why something needed to be done now. Iran was at the point where its prodigious missile production - with its ability to overwhelm all defenses - could be counted on to protect its nuclear program.

09.03.2026 15:23 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Some of us might need a bit of help with that one.

09.03.2026 15:21 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0