Quantifying Deregulation and its Economic Effects: A Large Language Model Approach
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
Positive shocks to deregulation drive significant gains in investment, productivity, stock prices, and GDP. Investment reacts 2x as strongly as GDP, confirming that deregulation is a major catalyst for capital formation. (2/2) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp...
06.03.2026 20:24
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Quantifying Deregulation and its Economic Effects: A Large Language Model Approach
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
How do you measure deregulation before it even happens? In this #IFDPPaper, the authors use AI to build a news-based index of U.S. deregulation spanning from 1960 to present. Newspaper coverage leads the Federal Register by nearly one year. (1/2) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp...
06.03.2026 20:24
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Figure 4. Price changes in 2025 by country of origin
This is a bar chart showing monthly 12-month percent changes in the country-specific Numerator Fisher Price Indices for January through December 2025. The y-axis shows percent values ranging from approximately -1 to 8.5 percent. The chart displays five variables: USA (blue bars), Canada (green bars), Mexico (yellow bars), China (purple bars), and Others (orange bars).
The data reveals a pattern of increasing price changes throughout the year, particularly for China and the Others category. In January and February, most countries show modest changes between -0.5 and 1 percent, with some negative values. From March through July, price changes generally remain below 2.5 percent across all countries. Starting in August, China's price changes accelerate significantly, reaching approximately 5.7 percent, then continue climbing to peak at about 8.3 percent in December. The Others category follows a similar but less dramatic upward trend, reaching about 5.3 percent by December. USA, Canada, and Mexico maintain more moderate price changes throughout the year, typically staying below 2.5 percent.
Note: 12-month percent changes in the country-specific Numerator Fisher Price Indices for January through December 2025. The key identifies bars in order from left to right. Source: Matched Numerator Panel Data and Label Insight Data, authors' calculations.
This #FEDSNote shows that price pressures developed gradually in 2025 rather than showing up as a one-time price spike and tariff effects have been greatest for goods imported from China with 8.5% year-over-year price increase by December 2025. www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
06.03.2026 17:20
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Measuring Shocks to Banks’ Expectations for Lending Standards Using the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
ICYMI: Banks’ outlook for lending standards is shaped by macro forecasts, macro-financial conditions, and bank characteristics, as well as by shocks unrelated to these factors, which the authors isolate as the E-CSI. (1/2) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note... #EconSky #FEDSNote
03.03.2026 15:58
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Measuring Shocks to Banks’ Expectations for Lending Standards Using the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
Banks’ outlook for lending standards is shaped by macro forecasts, macro-financial conditions, and bank characteristics, as well as by shocks unrelated to these factors, which the authors isolate as the E-CSI. (1/2) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
23.02.2026 19:42
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Downside and Upside Economic Uncertainty
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
Over this period, trade uncertainty was largely due to its upside component, reflecting generally positive surprises in trade flows relative to model forecasts. (2/2) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note... #FEDSNote
18.02.2026 19:58
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Downside and Upside Economic Uncertainty
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.
ICYMI: Using an econometric-based uncertainty measure, the authors find that, in 2025, elevated trade uncertainty was the main driver of aggregate economic uncertainty in the U.S. (1/2) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note... #FEDSNote
18.02.2026 19:58
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