Heather Urry

Affective Forecasting Accuracy in Everyday Life - Affective Science Affective Science - People often predict how they might feel in the future, with varying degrees of accuracy. Such affective forecasts can centre around periods of time (e.g., tomorrow, next week)...

In work recently out in Affective Science we investigated how accurately people can forecast their emotions in everyday life. Study 1 focused on forecasts for specific time periods (tomorrow, next week). Study 2 focused on forecasts for daily unpleasant events. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

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When you collect data online, are the results from humans or AI? In a project led by Booth PhD student Grace Zhang, we estimate the prevalence of AI agents on commonly used survey platforms:
osf.io/preprints/ps...
🧵

Three Neat Rows Pierre Pellegrini

The spines of the collected edition of MONK. The final season's spine art is upside down compared to the rest.

The collected edition of a show about a man with crippling OCD...

Reviewer notes: Avoid any ambiguity about analysis aims For any central statistical analysis that you report in your manuscript, it should be absolutely clear for readers why the analysis is being conducted in the first place – that is, the analysis goal s...

I keep talking about estimands and people usually politely nod and say "yes, of course, research questions needs to be articulated clearly."

But actually I think I might have to make my demand more explicit: Actually spell out the (factual or counterfactual) variables and worlds you're contrasting!

BYD just killed your EV argument with a battery that competes with gas engines The Chinese carmaker's new batteries feature a 5-minute charge and 621-mile range, plus a 620,000-mile lifespan and lower prices.

If this turns out as described, this is massive news.

www.fastcompany.com/91503415/byd...

‼️ Postdoc recruitment

Want to help build and understand the future of scientific collaboration? We are seeking a postdoc in computational meta‑science.

📍 UF (Gainesville, FL)

💰 $55–60k (1-3 years)

🧠 High intellectual agency

📅 Deadline March 10

Send us your idea. Details attached!

I really like this chart: terminology for cause vs describe vs predict.

We’re hiring!🔬The MAClab at Texas A&M is looking for a lab manager to join our team in College Station. If you’re organized, passionate about research, and interested in emotion and the brain, we want to hear from you!

🔗Apply at the link in our bio!
#PsychSky #PsychSciSky #neuroskyence #AcademicSky

Today I am excited to introduce respyra - an open-source Python toolbox for respiratory tracking experiments in interoception research!

Now on PyPI (pip install respyra) with a preprint on PsyArXiv:
osf.io/preprints/ps...

GitHub: github.com/embodied-com...

a man in a tuxedo and bow tie is looking at something Alt: A man in a tuxedo and bow tie nodding

Following the discourse like

Scientists: for a new story, I have one big question—>

What is a “good day” in the lab?

I’m looking for epic examples of the best day ever to general criteria for what constitutes a “good day” compared to a nothing-burger day.

Ping me if you have examples to share!

Re-posts appreciated!

Causal inference for psychologists who think that causal inference is not for them Correlation does not imply causation and psychologists' causal inference training often focuses on the conclusion that therefore experiments are needed—without much consideration for the causal infer...

You need to bring in the same toolkit as in studies that try to establish causality without randomization.

I know it sounds unfair, but I don’t make the rules. These situations are instances of post-treatment bias, if you want to read up on it as a psychologist:

A petavoxel fragment of human cerebral cortex reconstructed at nanoscale resolution To fully understand how the human brain works, knowledge of its structure at high resolution is needed. Presented here is a computationally intensive reconstruction of the ultrastructure of a cubic mi...

www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Gen Z loves Friemds!

Screenshot of job ad for postdoc. Follow link for details.

T32 Postdoc position in developmental psychopathology at UMN Institute of Child Development! There are many excellent primary mentors available, as well as an even better set of secondary mentors to choose from (including me). See link for details, due April 1. drive.google.com/file/d/18SoO...

Are you a junior faculty member interested in spending 2-4 weeks at Princeton Psych? Consider applying for our Microsabbatical program! It’s a fully funded visit for professional development and creating long-term collaborations.
psych.princeton.edu/diversity/mi...

a cartoon character with a wig made of snowflakes is singing a song . ALT: a cartoon character with a wig made of snowflakes is singing a song .

Also, yes to winter dying. Mr. Snow Miser sucks.

Let’s find a 10K?

The half!

Recent work has shown how vulnerable online survey research is to LLMs. Motivated by this, we examined our online Posner cueing data from Prolific. It's concerning. We now must carefully consider when (or whether?) online behavioral data can be trusted.
see our comment:
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Go Tufts!

New paper, on a worrying trend in meta-science: the practice of anonymising datasets on, e.g., published articles. We argue that this is at odds with norms established in research synthesis, explore arguments for anonymisation, provide counterpoints, and demonstrate implications and epistemic costs.

hello friends! does anyone know of open data of an RL task (single- mult-armed bandit tasks) that also list (a variable) ITI per trial in humans?

#computationalcognitivescience #computationalpsychiatry

Happy birthday to one of my favourite haters, Charles Darwin

Awards It is important to recognise the labour and commitment involved in improving psychological science, including through research (both academic and non-academic), tools, practice, science communicati…

Nominate a Project for a SIPS Award! 🏆
Help us recognize contributions to improving psychological science!

💡 SIPS Awards honor impactful projects—not individuals—because collective work drives progress. 🌍✨

Simulated null distribution for data with a sample size of 100, difference in group means of 5, and a p-value of 0.142

Simulated null distribution of a slope of 0.8 and p-value of 0.002

Finally, we have to decide if the p-value meets an evidentiary standard or threshold that would provide us with enough evidence that we aren’t in the null world (or, in more statsy terms, enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis). There are lots of possible thresholds. By convention, most people use a threshold (often shortened to α) of 0.05, or 5%. But that’s not required! You could have a lower standard with an α of 0.1 (10%), or a higher standard with an α of 0.01 (1%). Statistically significant The p-value is < 0.001 and our threshold for α is 0.05 In a world where there is no relationship between x and y, the probability of seeing a slope of at least 0.901 is < 0.1% Since < 0.001 is less than 0.05, we have enough evidence to say that the slope is statistically significant.

Evidentiary standards When thinking about p-values and thresholds, I like to imagine myself as a judge or a member of a jury. Many legal systems around the world have formal evidentiary thresholds or standards of proof. If prosecutors provide evidence that meets a threshold (i.e. goes beyond a reasonable doubt, or shows evidence on a balance of probabilities), the judge or jury can rule guilty. If there’s not enough evidence to clear the standard or threshold, the judge or jury has to rule not guilty. With p-values: If the probability of seeing an effect or difference (or δ) in a null world is less than 5% (or whatever the threshold is), we rule it statistically significant and say that the difference does not fit in that world. We’re pretty confident that it’s not zero. If the p-value is larger than the threshold, we do not have enough evidence to claim that δ doesn’t come from a world of where there’s no difference. We don’t know if it’s not zero. Importantly, if the difference is not significant, that does not mean that there is no difference. It just means that we can’t detect one if there is. If a prosecutor doesn’t provide sufficient evidence to clear a standard or threshold, it does not mean that the defendant didn’t do whatever they’re charged with†—it means that the judge or jury can’t detect guilt.

I just whipped up this little #QuartoPub site last week that demonstrates how I teach p-values/hyp-testing through simulation both with live OJS and with #rstats, and I think it's super neat! It has examples for diff-in-means, diff-in-props, and regression slopes nullworlds.andrewheiss.com #statsky

“I’ve reviewed over 50 sticky toffee puddings” is an incredibly powerful way to begin a video

Bluesky Map Interactive map of 3.4 million Bluesky users, visualised by their follower pattern.

I made a map of 3.4 million Bluesky users - see if you can find yourself!

bluesky-map.theo.io

I've seen some similar projects, but IMO this seems to better capture some of the fine-grained detail