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Tim Duffy

@timfduffy.com

I like utilitarianism, consciousness, AI, EA, space, kindness, liberalism, longtermism, progressive rock, economics, and most people. Substack: http://timfduffy.substack.com

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Latest posts by Tim Duffy @timfduffy.com

Ah I think he likes it in many ways though its unfortunately harder to get research funding at a small liberal arts college like he's at.

10.03.2026 19:35 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

He liked it, although it was just off campus it wasn't an area with many students living nearby

10.03.2026 18:17 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

He's a college professor in a small town and during his first couple years the college put him up in a house just off campus.

10.03.2026 17:45 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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I decided to check what the longest piece was and it's that long because you're supposed to play it 840 times in a row.

10.03.2026 02:35 ๐Ÿ‘ 4 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Spotify โ€“ Web Player

This reminds me that a friend used to have a ~3 minute walk to work so I made a playlist of all the <=3 min songs I like: open.spotify.com/playlist/7h5...

10.03.2026 02:06 ๐Ÿ‘ 5 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
DeepSeek-OCR: Contexts Optical Compression We present DeepSeek-OCR as an initial investigation into the feasibility of compressing long contexts via optical 2D mapping. DeepSeek-OCR consists of two components: DeepEncoder and DeepSeek3B-MoE-A5...

It's not exactly what you're looking for, but in the DeepSeek OCR paper they were able to compress context by ~10x by using image tokens instead of text: arxiv.org/abs/2510.18234

10.03.2026 01:35 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I only recently learned there are people who hate WebP and I just naively assumed it must be about wanting to adopt JXL or AVIF instead, but no it's just not wanting a new better format at all.

09.03.2026 21:43 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I think @jefferyharrell.bsky.social

09.03.2026 21:34 ๐Ÿ‘ 6 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

my flatmate btw

07.03.2026 20:43 ๐Ÿ‘ 7 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

The smallest image models I know of are the Stable Diffusion Models, ~1B parameters for something like ~3 GB when including the VAE/text encoder. I'm surprised there hasn't been significant progress on how small a coherent image model can be since then.

07.03.2026 01:53 ๐Ÿ‘ 5 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Welcome to the part of Bluesky that takes AI seriously! Here are a couple starter packs for serious AI discussion on Bluesky if you want to find more:

bsky.app/starter-pack...
bsky.app/starter-pack...

06.03.2026 23:05 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Her piece does talk about how it loses meaning at long lengths:

05.03.2026 22:48 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

The circle packing in circle page dates to 1999.

04.03.2026 21:57 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

This site has been around a very long time, I remember first finding it over a decade ago.

04.03.2026 21:57 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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1T seems possible a few years hence, the largest companies by revenue today are Walmart and Amazon each at 2/3 of a trillion. 1T is also less than 1% of world GDP. But this requires speculating beyond three years which is problematic.

04.03.2026 20:43 ๐Ÿ‘ 8 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

yeah, surprisingly weak relationship between water % and how wet they seem

04.03.2026 20:38 ๐Ÿ‘ 5 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Same! I remember learning watermelons were ~92% water as a kid and assuming that other fruits must be so much lower.

04.03.2026 20:37 ๐Ÿ‘ 5 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Many fruits and veg are surprisingly high % water

04.03.2026 20:35 ๐Ÿ‘ 5 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I agreed with Dario at the time, and still do. It's good to be cautious on account of the known unknown of future growth. But the unknown unknowns like the supply chain risk thing makes not overextending yourself look even better.

04.03.2026 20:31 ๐Ÿ‘ 5 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

yup

04.03.2026 16:45 ๐Ÿ‘ 5 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

A couple reasons:
-It's a good indicator of capabilities progress, more useful than benchmarks IMO, and I'm more worried about all types of risk in a world where AI capabilities progress is very rapid.
-More revenue is itself one of the drivers of infrastructure spend which drives further progress.

04.03.2026 16:30 ๐Ÿ‘ 6 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

At their current 10x/year growth rate, they should automate all labor in about 3.5 years.

04.03.2026 16:27 ๐Ÿ‘ 10 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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Anthropic revenue growth is terrifyingly fast www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

04.03.2026 00:52 ๐Ÿ‘ 117 ๐Ÿ” 8 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 7 ๐Ÿ“Œ 10
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03.03.2026 23:44 ๐Ÿ‘ 4 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
Ara Kharazian on X: "Most people in tech know Anthropic commands the majority of API spend by U.S. businesses. As of January, Anthropic took >50% of spend on enterprise AI subscriptions too. OpenAI still leads on business count. But the biggest spenders go to Anthropic. All from Ramp data. https://t.co/829Wyutj3O" / X Most people in tech know Anthropic commands the majority of API spend by U.S. businesses. As of January, Anthropic took >50% of spend on enterprise AI subscriptions too. OpenAI still leads on business count. But the biggest spenders go to Anthropic. All from Ramp data. https://t.co/829Wyutj3O

Subscription data! x.com/arakharazian...

03.03.2026 23:44 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

These are four particularly good long reads on the topic of military software provisioning from the past few days.

www.hyperdimensional.co/p/clawed
thezvi.substack.com/p/secretary-...
jessicatillipman.com/what-rights-...
www.astralcodexten.com/p/all-lawful...

03.03.2026 19:11 ๐Ÿ‘ 51 ๐Ÿ” 9 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

TBH I'm not sure and it's possible it's speculation. Lin was an open source champion, and many people on X are suggesting that the firing is a shift toward further commercialization. I'm not so sure myself though.

03.03.2026 19:59 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Targeting daily active users as the key metric you want more of

03.03.2026 19:29 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Some more context on Lin, via SCMP's Vincent Chow: x.com/vince_chow1/...

03.03.2026 18:29 ๐Ÿ‘ 23 ๐Ÿ” 2 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

TBC I'm not sure about all the claims in this post, like the claim that it's about DAUmaxxing.

03.03.2026 18:23 ๐Ÿ‘ 8 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0