Mike Black

I am not at all confident they can get a reconciliation bill done this year lol

Interceptors are the big one. They cost what they cost and the shot doctrine is what it is; it's not so much a massive military failure to plan or w/e as it is "don't get into stupid wars of choice that will burn your interceptor inventories"

I'm beating a dead horse but it's not that there was "no plan," it's that there isn't a military solution period if Iran has been provoked into going big, short of "invade Bandar Abbas"

The plan is
-don't do a war with Iran if you don't have to
-if you do then terminate it as quickly as possible

even with a notional shot doctrine of firing more than one per OWA, APKWS as a drone killer is basically a wash relative cost curve wise

This is a thing that is within their control and they absolutely should make their negotiating position

Conversely, these figures also illustrate that as heavy as the bombing of Iran is, if you think the US and Israel are doing to Iran what Israel did to Gaza—they’re not. The opening bombing of Gaza was *vastly* more intense, due to its being such a tiny fraction of the size of affected areas of Iran.

And even the plans assuming a not insane environment didn't have a good answer for the Strait besides "hope the rest of the whole of govt is working towards war termination because we don't have a great military answer"

Unfortunately the current interagency/WoG is 3 marcos rubio in a trenchcoat, so

Again, there were/are plans but they assumed a fundamentally different (not insane) strategic environment for such a war

there was no plan for "YOLO Iran war with only bibi," hence why the best they came up with in a couple weeks was "uhhhh bomb stuff I guess"

Lol

sweepthestrait.com

bold to assume they included a win step

given the range of the missiles and the fact all our adversaries have threat missiles, why this would be a thing the US should give a fuck about is a mystery, until you remember who funds FDD/etc

Ruthless FARA enforcement against the gulfies and Israel, and US ME policy becomes a lot more sane

Yeah, "it's not fair the Iranians have missiles abluhbluhbloobloo" has been a longstanding FDD/etc whining point for a decade now

and as such the crisis planning as such amounted to, say it with me, uhhhh I dunno bomb stuff I guess

They heard INDOPACOM saying the PLAN was the enemy and they decided the plan was the enemy

There weren't any plans for the Strait beyond "yeah we have a plan to one time force it if there's something stranded in the Gulf we need to get out but otherwise man we need to end the fuckin war sooner rather than later"

No win scenario

All the planning involved some combination of "those assholes fired first" and "The World Has Decided It Is Time To End The Iranian Threat," both involve a level of ally+partner integration that is absolutely not the case here

There was literally no plan for "YOLO Iran war w/Bibi"

the thing is there's no actual plan for this besides

- plunk DDGs on both sides of the Strait and expect to get blasted
- land Marines in at least MEB strength (probably closer to the whole damn MEF) to do a '''temporary''' "destroy mine stuff" raid around Bandar Abbas
- end the fucking war

the thing is there's no actual plan for this besides

- plunk DDGs on both sides of the Strait and expect to get blasted
- land Marines in at least MEB strength (probably closer to the whole damn MEF) to do a '''temporary''' "destroy mine stuff" raid around Bandar Abbas
- end the fucking war

elect me to Congress I guess

bsky.app/profile/chri...

I dunno just bomb stuff

Well, fake but perceived vulnerabilities would be some version of munitions production in general and maybe standoff+interceptor stocks

Interceptor stocks is also borderline real and perceived, while MCM is absolutely real and perceived and has been for like 30 years lol

A lot of the discourse is about fake but perceived vulnerabilities, which are dumb as shit because you're basically tanking whatever deterrent value you had without actually having a vulnerability since you spent the money on a thing, aka the worst of all worlds

this gets rumsfeld meta because there's what is an ACTUAL actual vulnerability, a FAKE but perceived actual vulnerability, an unperceived but actual vulnerability, and a fake and unperceived vulnerability

this is why you don't do dumbass wars of choice

more and more people are saying

doing this without attaching it to a war powers vote is political malpractice

nope lol no ARG

and yes CENTCOM contingency planning over a course of years back assumed we'd do a war under some combination of iranian offensive action and coalition being available besides Israel, not.........this

There was a running #SECDEFForbes joke with @forbesmm.bsky.social on the other site back in the day, may I propose the Joint Mikes of Staff

bsky.app/profile/mike...

"PLAN don't surf," free trivia name for anyone who wants it

I should be in the national command authority, more and more people are saying