Average diesel prices today versus a year ago:
Texas ⬆️$1.06/gal
Ohio ⬆️$1.05/gal
Michigan ⬆️$1.02/gal
New Mexico ⬆️99c/gal
Washington ⬆️97c/gal
Maryland ⬆️96c/gal
Indiana ⬆️95c/gal
Iowa ⬆️95c/gal
Oregon ⬆️94c/gal
North Carolina ⬆️93c/gal
GS: We estimate that AI investment and AI cloud services accounted for about 25% of S&P 500 EPS growth in 2025 and will account for roughly 40% of EPS growth in 2026.
a graph of unemployment rates by immigration status
a graph of prime-age employment rates by immigration status
Unsurprisingly, Trump's immigration crackdown is still not delivering labor market improvements for the US-born
Over the last year, native-born unemployment is up from 4.3% to 4.7% while native-born employment has decreased
Markets were incredibly complacent at the start of the week, but - with Brent now around $85 - I think we're starting to price a reasonable risk premium. This is up 18% from Friday and I think starts to accurately reflect risk of a major supply disruption...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/a-massive-...
Now we can bomb schools and kill dozens of children!!
bsky.app/profile/nyti...
Kolanovic: Tacos aren’t on the menu this time. 🌮
their coldbrew is solid
Today's low comfortably above last month's low. Given events, that's kind of impressive. Net, nothing's changed.
YTD performance:
2-year yield -10bps
10-year yield -23bps
Equal-weight consumer staples +14.5%
Nasdaq 100 -1.1%
Banks -2.9%
Software -22.8%
Come on @alanbeattie.bsky.social , don't mince words, tell us what you really think...
Literally, nothing has changed. The chart above was from the low early this month. Up since then, holding >20-wma (LHS) and just ping ponging back and forth in a range the last 3 months (RHS)
Fun under the big top. Software closing in on some levels first reached 5+ years ago. The "can't disprove the bear case" logic is driving a selling cascade.
Weakness in adjacent areas that dedicated software investors also own a lot of (card processors, data services) is again making things messy.
HOLD!
Stewie!
It’s great there in the winter. Not as much as the summer…but still, very tranquil
Yeh. You hate us. Cuz you ain’t us. Ked
have plenty of friends in burbs whose kids play with kids of or are coached by ex nfl, nhl, mlb players....But just to be clear, Tom Brady is not one of them...
“.. Florida had highest foreclosure rate out of any state in 2025 ... reasons cited included affordability issues due to insurance premiums, property taxes, and general ownership costs ..”
(via Schwab)
This chart seems to suggest a striking pattern: Kevin Warsh's speeches are consistently hawkish, except when Trump is President and about to appoint a new Fed Chair.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
* US Companies Announce Most Job Cuts for Any January Since 2009
@bloomberg.com
BofA: The “K” is here to stay
Ratio of lower- and higher-income spending to middle-income discretionary spending
The only future for manufacturing in the US probably looks like robots in big warehouses in Arizona and Georgia. www.wsj.com/economy/u-s-...
Since the day after the 2024 presidential election, bitcoin is down and the US has lost 78,000 manufacturing jobs.
This is one way I’ve been thinking about the market outlook this year (some narrative tailwinds early that shift to headwinds around spring), and Claude did a pretty decent job of turning it into a visual:
the murano cross cabriolet?
tatum and brown need to pull a freaky friday and switch the #1 and #2 bodies
curious...i wonder who used to bank there 🤔
*MACKLEM: SAFE HAVEN ROLE OF US DOLLAR HAS BEEN DENTED
RenMac’s Dutta:
“GMAFB...USD weakness has been driven primarily by a shift in global risk appetite rather than a fundamental reassessment of US eco prospects.”
see: US stocks at ATHs, global stocks outperforming
