In this week's DDHQ newsletter: The 26 Republican-held seats that will be key to the 2026 House majority.
We're still ~8 months out from the election, but these seats are already clearly the Democrats' best targets if they want to win back the House.
Decision Desk HQ is excited to announce the release of Votes, our new election data portal!
Easily access up-to-date polling, historical results, and prediction market data.
votes.decisiondeskhq.com
ICYMI Our Monday newsletter took a look at the 2026 House playing field. About 45 districts seem most likely to decide a majority in November — 25 held by Republicans, 20 held by Democrats.
Read more here:
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/the-key-ho...
This week's DDHQ newsletter looks at the House playing field and identifies 45 districts that are likely to determine the House majority in 2026.
Read here:
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/the-key-ho...
This week's DDHQ Podcast is a Redistricting Refresher with @geoffreyskelley.com & @baseballot.bsky.social. What map changes are happening? What could the Dem/GOP gains be?
One wrinkle is that parties aren't always respecting the reality that the other side will eventually have a good year!
DDHQ's newsletter on Presidents' Day looked at Gallup's less-than-timely decision to cease measuring presidential approval.
The absence of Gallup could very subtly boost Trump's approval average; Gallup was consistently on his low end.
Read more here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/end-of-gal...
Sen. Susan Collins (R) formally announced that she's running for reelection in #MESen.
She is the only Republican senator from a state carried by Kamala Harris in '24.
Collins easily gives the GOP its best chance of holding onto what is a must-win seat for Democrats in 2026.
Winner of #TX18 runoff tomorrow will further narrow GOP's House majority. After the winner (a Dem) is sworn in, GOP will have 218-214 edge (w/ 3 vacancies).
Granted, another gov shutdown could make it easier for Mike Johnson to delay swearing in the winner, as happened with Adelita Grijalva.
DDHQ Podcast welcomed @gracepanetta.bsky.social to chat about 2026 Senate races with high-profile women candidates.
One is #TXSen, where Dems are split on Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who has given fuel to her "electability" detractors.
Watch/listen here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/senate-wom...
I think that's a tad harsh about prediction markets, but I agree that I def trust polls more than prediction markets — at least if the race is reasonable well-polled.
Also, I just realized my comment about Kalshi %s was on The Downballot's podcast, not mine. Similar topics, thus the confusion.
@geoffreyskelley.com joins us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast to tell us all about his work as the new chief election analyst at @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social! We nerd out about top Senate primaries and the surprising reasons House retirements have spiked. Listen here!
Kalshi probabilities are a back-of-the-envelope read of the conventional wisdom. As I mention in the episode, it has been telling to see Dem odds tick up in the Senate based on those probabilities.
In this week's DDHQ Polling Memo:
-Trump's approval continues to hover in one of its worst spots in his 2nd term
-Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi leads Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton 36%-16% in the Illinois Dem primary for Senate
Read more here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/illinois-d...
Baby, it's cold outside, but things are heating up ♨️ in Louisiana for Bill Cassidy. Trump endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow over Cassidy in the #LASen GOP primary & now the incumbent might be boiled shrimp 🦐 in 2026.
DDHQ's newsletter breaks things down:
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/trump-letl...
DDHQ has a new polling average for South Carolina's GOP primary for governor. The 4 main contenders are all between 10-20%, with Rep. Nancy Mace & state AG Alan Wilson both around 19%.
The race may well depend on Trump's endorsement (if he does).
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/no-clear-f...
ICYMI yesterday, this week's DDHQ newsletter covered 10 big elections to watch in the first three months of 2026. One of them is the #GA14 special on March 10 to fill the seat vacated by Marjorie Taylor Greene.
decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/10-big-ele...
In this week's DDHQ newsletter, @geoffreyskelley.com runs through 10 key elections to watch in the first 3 months of 2026. On the list is the March 10 special election for Marjorie Taylor Greene's former seat, Georgia's 14th District. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/10-big-ele...
If Klobuchar runs for #MNGov, she'll be the 4th sitting senator to run for governor in 2026 — most in any election from 1914-now.
@geoffreyvs will have more in tomorrow morning's DDHQ newsletter. You can get it in your inbox by signing up for FREE here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/welcome
Everything is bigger in Texas, including the candidate filing deadline! @geoffreyskelley.com discussed the ins and outs of Texas's big races with @gbirenbaum.bsky.social from @texastribune.org, including what Jasmine Crockett's candidacy means for #TXSen. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/episode-9-...
In this week's newsletter, a look at candidates who might get accused of "carpetbagging" by running in states or districts that are mostly or totally new to them. This includes at least 4 former or current House members running in 2026, such as Madison Cawthorn & Chris Collins. zurl.co/J8573
In this week's DDHQ Podcast, @geoffreyskelley.com talked Tennessee with @rubashkin.bsky.social from Inside Elections! They dug into the #TN07 special election result — especially the contest's high turnout — and what it may say about next year's midterms. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/tennessee-...
DDHQ has a big preview of today's #TN07 special election. The GOP favored to win the Trump +22 district, but limited polling says it's close & both parties' super PACs have spent $$$. A Dem upset would rank among biggest recent special election flips. zurl.co/9KZWR
DDHQ has an in-depth preview of the special election for Tennessee's 7th District happening on Tuesday (tomorrow)! The solidly Republican seat looks competitive, so while the GOP is favored to hold onto the seat, a Democratic upset can't be written off. zurl.co/QNK00
The holiday season is here, which means 2026 is close at hand. DDHQ put together a 2026 Primary Primer covering next year's primary election calendar, which stretches from March to September. Every state. Every notable race. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/the-2026-p...
Maps & more maps. In this week's episode of the DDHQ Podcast, @geoffreyskelley.com & guest @baseballot.bsky.social toured the states that have redistricted their congressional maps. A big ? is Texas, where a federal judicial panel just blocked the new map. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/texas-redi...
why polls matter!
2025 election review in this week's DDHQ newsletter: How Mamdani won NYC, why California's redistricting measure passed so easily & how swingy Georgia voted über blue for Public Service Commission. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/new-york-c...
Let's talk polling in 2025. Decision Desk HQ's podcast explored why polling is important, what challenges it faces, building polling averages, and what happened in the 2025 polls with @fiftyplusone.news's Mary Radcliffe & @gelliottmorris.com. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/episode-6-...
DDHQ's Monday newsletter delved into the results in Virginia and New Jersey with 10 maps, charts & tables. Read it here: decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/virginia-a...
DDHQ's newsletter explores Virginia & New Jersey's elections in 10 charts, maps & tables. In both, Democrats won double-digit victories for governor, took/kept control of state government, and won their largest state legislative majorities in recent times. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/virginia-a...
