Beginning tonight with the 01z NBM, the N shift continues with a band of over a foot+ in the #TwinCities and #MSP metro. I do still believe S side of the metro has the best shot of the highest totals in the Twin Cities region but we need to continue to watch for shifts very closely

Yall loved this last night, so let’s do it again tonight. This thread will cover the 00z runs from tonight which will begin any moment

Since last night, most of the guidance has come N into or closer to the #TwinCities. Will that trend continue?

Follow along to find out 🧵

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MPX continues Winter Storm Watch valid at Mar 14, 10:00 PM CDT for Barron, Chippewa, Dunn, Eau Claire, Pepin, Pierce, Polk, St. Croix [WI] till Mar 16, 7:00 AM CDT Link

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MPX continues High Wind Warning valid at Mar 13, 12:00 AM CDT for Anoka, Benton, Carver, Dakota, Goodhue, Hennepin, Le Sueur, Morrison, Ramsey, Rice, Scott, Sherburne, Steele, Washington, Wright [MN] till Mar 13, 10:00 AM CDT Link

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MPX continues Wind Advisory valid at Mar 13, 12:00 AM CDT for Chisago, Isanti, Kanabec, Mille Lacs [MN] and Barron, Chippewa, Dunn, Eau Claire, Pepin, Pierce, Polk, St. Croix [WI] till Mar 13, 10:00 AM CDT Link

A significant late season winter storm will develop across the northern High Plains Friday night and into Saturday before rapidly strengthening as it moves into the Great Lakes on Sunday. Heavy snow and blowing snow are likely to persist over the Great Lakes into Monday. A swath of heavy snowfall is expected from Montana on east through the Northern Plains and into the northern Great Lakes. Snowfall rates over 2 inches per hour are likely within the band of heaviest snowfall from southern MN and central WI to northern MI. Hazardous ice accumulations are also possible in the Great Lakes. Strong winds gusting 30-50 mph will produce whiteout conditions and dangerous to potentially impossible travel at times. Power outages are possible in the Upper Midwest and into both Michigan Peninsulas both Sunday and Monday. While this major winter storm is high confidence, there is still uncertainty as to the exact track. Shifts in storm track would lead to changes in the axis of heaviest snow, ice, and greatest impacts. Keep up to date with the latest forecasts at www.weather.gov.

🌨️Confidence continues to increase in a major winter storm producing a swath of heavy snow from the northern High Plains to the Great Lakes this weekend. Whiteout conditions & exceptional snowfall rates will cause dangerous to even impossible travel conditions at times.
Visit weather.gov for updates.

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MPX issues Winter Storm Watch valid at Mar 14, 10:00 PM CDT for Barron, Chippewa, Dunn, Eau Claire, Pepin, Pierce, Polk, St. Croix [WI] till Mar 16, 7:00 AM CDT Link

A man with pale skin in a yellow bubble on a dark blue graphic

A man with pale skin in a yellow bubble on a dark blue graphic

We are thrilled to endorse two Wisconsin climate champions: Jeremy Gragert for Eau Claire City Council President and Garner Moffat for Superior City Council District 3!

Finally, the 00z CMCE shows a pretty similar idea overall. Maybe a tighter gradient on the S side and a more significant snow swath for most of WI and northern to central MI

This also assumes 10:1 ratio and is likely underdone as a result

00z EPS gives a similar idea to the 00z Euro with a heavier swath of snow S of the metro. Again southern MN to central WI into northern MI has the highest means.

Just like the GEFS, these are assuming constant 10:1 ratio snow and is likely underdone as a result

The 00z Euro went a bit further Sc then the last few runs. Still a solid 8-10 inches in the Twin Cities with a foot-foot and a half in areas from southern MN into central WI. Also a much more aggressive backside snow event for areas like northern IL including Chicago

Meanwhile going to the 00z GEFS, there is a huge area of a foot+ of snowfall on the mean. And the crazy part is, this assumes a constant 10:1 ratio snow

The ratios will be higher here for sure (likely somewhere between 13:1-15:1 looking at soundings. That means these amounts are likely underdone

00z UKMET shows a pretty similar idea, maybe not quite as aggressive. This seems more realistic to me given the setup we have at hand, but is still possible it’s slightly too aggressive

00z GFS is also going gangbuster showing a similar 2-3+ ft scenario with some areas nearing 4+ ft

Just like the GDPS, probably overdone here, but again this does show the major potential this storm has

00z GDPS comes in with a absolute jaw dropping run, showing widespread 2-3 ft+ totals. Some areas in Wisconsin are nearly 4 ft

This is probably overdone, but it does show the huge potential this storm has

Beginning with the 00z ICON, this is the highest run I’ve seen yet from the ICON showing nearly 2 ft of snow on this run. Nearly perfect low track from Des Moines into southern WI as well

Trying something new for the #snowstorm potential in the #MSP metro this weekend

Going to try doing a thread posting all the runs for that model cycle as they come in. This thread is the 00z runs for March 12th.

Follow along as they come in 🧵

#mnwx #wiwx #TwinCities #winterstorm #wxbluesky

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MPX upgrades High Wind Watch to High Wind Warning valid at Mar 13, 12:00 AM CDT for Anoka, Benton, Carver, Dakota, Goodhue, Hennepin, Le Sueur, Morrison, Ramsey, Rice, Scott, Sherburne, Steele, Washington, Wright [MN] till Mar 13, 10:00 AM CDT Link

And to be honest, I could see Trump 2.0 only accelerating these shifts faster then it otherwise would of

Yes Republicans still have a lot of rural margins they can gain, but the rapidly bluing WOW’s and other suburbs + smaller blue cores in the state is eventually going to become a major math issue that ends Republicans chances statewide here, if they can’t stop the bleeding soon

Attention Wisconsin:

Lazar is dangerous, extreme, and wrong for Wisconsin

Rare to see high wind alerts in the heart of the #MSP metro as a result of the extra friction compared to more rural areas

IL voters, here’s who NOT to vote for on Tuesday. All these candidates are taking AIPAC contributions.

Turn around don’t drown. And stay off the roads if possible. #mowx #kswx #flooding #flashflood #wxbluesky

As a result, I expect flash flooding to ramp up here in the red circle fast over the next few hrs. In addition because we have more urbanization, particularly as we get close to #KC, #Missouri, the waters are going to rise very fast

Very concerned about the flash flooding risk right along the CF/WF impinging area. There are a ton of storms that have formed, and the mean storm motion (yellow arrows) follows directly to the outflow boundary (blue). This is a classic setup conductive for significant training storms and flooding.

Tornado Emergency has now been issued by the NWS for this storm. (red hatched area). This is a confirmed large and destructive tornado on the ground. Take shelter NOW. #inwx #tornado #wxblueksy

Very bad situation for the people in #Knox, #Indiana. This is by far the most concerning radar signature on this storm yet. There is a huge debris signature/TDS and a very strong couplet. Take shelter NOW. This is the most serious situation you can be in

#inwx #tornado #wxbluesky

Observed Tornado Warning for this storm along the IA/MO state line located S of #Keosauqua, #Iowa. This is a weather spotters confirmed tornado. Take shelter now #iawx #mowx #tornado #wxbluesky