Final run of tonight’s thread comes from the Euro-AIFS ensemble. Decent QPF’s of 0.7+ inches with the highest QPF’s and snowfall amounts over portions of southern MN and WI. However still a good snow event in the metro

00z EPS very similar setup overall to the main Euro with a 8-12+ inch of 10:1 ratio snow swath from central MN into western, central and northern portions of WI

This assumes 10:1 ratios and is underestimated here. I’d add another few inches to these totals to account for ratios

00z Euro with a pretty significant and honestly pretty reasonable overall run with a snow swath of 12-18+ inches right into the Twin Cities metro. Some areas are 20+ inches, which is definitely reasonable and possible with as dynamic of a storm like we have here

Should also note, that assumes constant 10:1 ratio, which is underdone here. Would probably be a double digit snow in the snow accounting for that, with a foot+ S metro this run

The gold standard aka AIFS, maintains the S route with the S MSP metro the most likely area to see 10+ inches. Still would be a good snow event in the metro but not the gangbuster 18-24+ inches other models show

Well this would be quite something if it verfies, which I highly doubt it will to this extent. Imagine getting a foot of snow in just 6 HOURS. That’s what the 00z FV3 shows

It also already has 16-18 inches by sunrise Sunday morning (which isn’t all of it). If this happened, easy 2+ ft run

Ok this is very notable. Attached is a GIF of the last 3 GEFS runs of ensemble mean snowfall.

Again this assumes a constant 10:1 ratio, so this is underdone given our ratios being slightly higher then this. But most notably, look at that N trend right into the Twin Cities. That is incredible to see

00z UKMET also 2+ ft right over the Twin Cities. Certainly makes you question, are these runs actually reasonable with how many models and ensembles are showing the same thing now

We’re less then 3 days out, like this doesn’t have much time to shift away now at this point

00z GDPS also with another jaw dropping 2+ ft run all over the region. I’d think this is too aggressive as well, but it’s starting to catch my eye of multiple models continuing to show the same thing run after run

00z AIGFS, using liquid equivalent still pretty good, not quite as significant as the ICON-EPS though.

00z GFS with a absolute jaw dropping run showing a huge 2-3+ ft corridor including in the MSP metro. This is likely too aggressive, but again, these runs just show the high end potential this storm will have

We’re also beginning to reach some of the higher resolution models now. The 00z RRFS is definitely a bit extreme imo, showing ridiculous totals especially in northeast WI/northern MI of 3-4+ ft. Also this specific run is also very far N to other models, with the N metro getting the highest totals

Another thing we can do, on the models/ensembles that don’t have snow products is use the total QPF (liquid equivalent of the snow). 1+ inch of liquid QPF is very significant and supports at least 10-12 inches this run given snow ratios starting at around 10:1 and increasing to 13:1 to 14:1 at least

00z ICON is in, and it also has a foot+ in the metro. In Southern portions of #Minnesota, this specific run has over 2 ft this run. Big N shift compared to 18z and 12z ICON

Beginning tonight with the 01z NBM, the N shift continues with a band of over a foot+ in the #TwinCities and #MSP metro. I do still believe S side of the metro has the best shot of the highest totals in the Twin Cities region but we need to continue to watch for shifts very closely

Yall loved this last night, so let’s do it again tonight. This thread will cover the 00z runs from tonight which will begin any moment

Since last night, most of the guidance has come N into or closer to the #TwinCities. Will that trend continue?

Follow along to find out 🧵

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Finally, the 00z CMCE shows a pretty similar idea overall. Maybe a tighter gradient on the S side and a more significant snow swath for most of WI and northern to central MI

This also assumes 10:1 ratio and is likely underdone as a result

00z EPS gives a similar idea to the 00z Euro with a heavier swath of snow S of the metro. Again southern MN to central WI into northern MI has the highest means.

Just like the GEFS, these are assuming constant 10:1 ratio snow and is likely underdone as a result

The 00z Euro went a bit further Sc then the last few runs. Still a solid 8-10 inches in the Twin Cities with a foot-foot and a half in areas from southern MN into central WI. Also a much more aggressive backside snow event for areas like northern IL including Chicago

Meanwhile going to the 00z GEFS, there is a huge area of a foot+ of snowfall on the mean. And the crazy part is, this assumes a constant 10:1 ratio snow

The ratios will be higher here for sure (likely somewhere between 13:1-15:1 looking at soundings. That means these amounts are likely underdone

00z UKMET shows a pretty similar idea, maybe not quite as aggressive. This seems more realistic to me given the setup we have at hand, but is still possible it’s slightly too aggressive

00z GFS is also going gangbuster showing a similar 2-3+ ft scenario with some areas nearing 4+ ft

Just like the GDPS, probably overdone here, but again this does show the major potential this storm has

00z GDPS comes in with a absolute jaw dropping run, showing widespread 2-3 ft+ totals. Some areas in Wisconsin are nearly 4 ft

This is probably overdone, but it does show the huge potential this storm has