fyi @ryanhumphrey.bsky.social (I'm not sure how the replies work on here)
12.03.2026 23:48
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fyi @ryanhumphrey.bsky.social (I'm not sure how the replies work on here)
Effects in Edmonton in early 2025 were negative, slightly smaller than in Calgary. Similar to Calgary but a bit smaller. Probably makes sense bc parties were lower salience in YEG in March 2025 than in YYC. Avg scores on partisan attitudes scale (see paper p.12) extremely similar in the two cities.
Absolutely. We ran the experiment in Edmonton in March. I’ll try to dig up those results tonight. Ping me if I forget!
Feedback most welcome - please get in touch if you have suggestions. Thanks for reading!
CATE estimates from the causal forest also predict actual vote choice in Calgary's 2025 election. Voters who penalized partisan candidates in the conjoint were less likely to vote for partisan candidates in real life — even when those candidates were ideologically close.
The penalty isn't uniform. Using causal forests, we find it's concentrated among (1) citizens with strong anti-partisan attitudes and (2) those hostile to the UCP — the provincial government that introduced the reform. Anti-partisan sentiment is the stronger of the two channels.
Short answer: yes. In two conjoint experiments fielded before and during the election, partisan candidates faced a meaningful penalty — and the penalty *grew* as the election approached. No sign that voters got used to parties over time.
"Do Municipal Voters Punish Partisan Candidates?" New working paper with Mike McGregor, @fsnagovsky.bsky.social , and @jaredwesley.ca. We study Calgary's election after AB imposed parties in a longtime nonpartisan city. Do voters punish candidates who run with parties?
osf.io/preprints/so...
Natalia Bueno (Emory): "Coordination Advantage: How Partisan
Favoritism Persists Under Accountability Institutions"
Happening TODAY! Take a break from whatever you're doing and join us for what's sure to be a very interesting talk. ucalgary.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
Immigration policy is (a) not an especially high priority for Albertans and (b) not an area in which Albertans' policy attitudes are much different from other Canadians.
When we dig into the issues that Albertans *do* care most about, several stand out as significantly more important than immigration: government spending, economic investment, health care spending, and Canada's independence from the United States. Immigration is very much second-tier.
Nor do Albertans differ from other Canadians in the importance of the immigration issue. If anything, Albertans tend to prioritize immigration *less* than residents of Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Ontario, etc.
One issue we included in the survey is immigration. When it comes to general attitudes about immigration, Albertans look very similar to their counterparts in Ontario and Quebec. As we've seen in other surveys, Canadians across the country are in a skeptical mood about immigration levels.
Today I'm wrapping up a survey of more than 7,000 Canadians on dozens of policy issues. The survey is part of a project, co-led by Tyler Romualdi (Western), to track Canadians' policy attitudes since the 1940s. Much more to come on this exciting project! But in the meantime...
I keep telling y’all: there’s nothing more fascinating than Vancouver electoral politics!!!
Next year, I'm hoping for a podium finish.
🧠 Do politicians misread their constituents' preferences?
➡️Using a new method where politicians draw preference distributions, N Dias, @jacklucas.bsky.social & @liorsheffer.bsky.social show that conservative overestimation is smaller than assumed www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView
New and open access, in @psrm.bsky.social: What happens when we make politicians draw distributions? Nic Dias, @jacklucas.bsky.social and I explore whether the large errors politicians make about public opinion are artificially inflated by how researchers ask them to estimate it /1
cup.org/4kltoyE
Logo of Political Science Research and Methods featuring the initials "PSRM" in a stylized grey font on a black background.
#OpenAccess from @psrm.bsky.social -
Beyond the mean: how thinking about the distribution of public opinions reduces politicians’ perceptual errors - https://cup.org/4kltoyE
- Nicholas Dias, @jacklucas.bsky.social & @liorsheffer.bsky.social
#FirstView
It's officially out! City Politics in Canada, co-edited with @jacklucas.bsky.social and Martin Horak @westernupolisci.bsky.social is in print and available for course adoption. Thank you to all chapter authors for their contributions. bsky.app/profile/did:...
Photo of the book City Politics in Canada.
Picture of the chapter by Luc Turgeon on Ottawa in the book.
Santa came early this year and I just received my copy of City Politics in Canada, edited by Martin Horak, @jacklucas.bsky.social and @bigcitypolitics.bsky.social. I wrote the chapter on Ottawa (dedicated to the late Caroline Andrew).
Final CMB Online Research Workshop of 2025, coming up on Thursday! Allison Verrilli (UT Austin) will be presenting research on gentrification and political participation, with Matt Nelsen (Miami) as discussant. Will be great; email me for the link!
Will ask!
Happening TODAY! The latest CMB Online Research Workshop event, featuring the great Tyler Simko. Email me if you'd like to attend and I'll share the link!
The CMB Online Speakers Series is back! Jérémy Gilbert on Multilevel Climate Governance, Friday October 31st from 11:00am to 12:00pm (MT)/1:00pm to 2:00pm (ET). Email me or @nicolemcmahon.bsky.social for the link if you'd like to join!
Congratulations to our winner, Alex Middleton (@alexyyc.bsky.social)! Twelve correct calls, plus a remarkably low 11.5% overall error in the tiebreaker. Well done!
Alberta Voted: Now What?
I'll be moderating this Nonprofits Vote event with panelists Matt Solberg, @markusoff.bsky.social, Rachel Swendseid & @jacklucas.bsky.social discussing the election that was.
Join us at 10 a.m. on Oct. 23. No cost and online, register here: www.eventbrite.ca/e/political-...
No, but we have a post-election survey going into the field today in Calgary (and six other AB muns), and it includes a good issue question. More soon!
Remarkably, because of the low turnout and the number of competitive mayoral candidates, it looks like Jeromy Farkas will win the 2025 mayoral election with 25,000 *fewer* votes than he received in 2021.
OK, that's it for now. Much more to come. Big thanks to the Canadian Municipal Barometer and the UofC Faculty of Arts for supporting this research. Thanks also to our partnership coordinator / survey programmer extraordinaire Reed Merrill, and to any Calgarians out there who completed our survey!