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Jack Bailey

@jack-bailey.co.uk

Political Scientist at the University of Manchester Co-Director of the British Election Study https://www.jack-bailey.co.uk

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Latest posts by Jack Bailey @jack-bailey.co.uk

It's also worrying how many people are fine with him receiving money for peddling unscientific woo-woo. Even if you ignore the misogyny, it's deeply unethical to take someone's money when they could put it to much better use, say, getting therapy. See also their position on 'natural birth'.

12.03.2026 06:12 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Maybe the market's afraid of what will happen if Reform come into power

11.03.2026 22:00 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

The germanic equivalent of 'liberty' is 'freedom'. The germanic equivalent of 'fraternity' is 'brotherhood', or maybe 'friendship' if we're not being sexist. But what's the germanic equivalent of 'equality'? Fairness? Evenness?

'Freedom, fairness, friendship' isn't too bad, and it's alliterative!

11.03.2026 21:59 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

Yes, but that’s great if you want to make a contribution!

11.03.2026 16:21 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

I’m not an IR person, but there’s an interesting angle here: if we treat states as actors, then, like any other actor, we should expect them to care about self preservation and reproduction

11.03.2026 16:16 πŸ‘ 7 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

There you go, that’s your PhD proposal!

11.03.2026 16:13 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Incidentally, also the logo of the AlianΓ§a Catalana who totally did not steal it

11.03.2026 15:34 πŸ‘ 9 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
11.03.2026 15:13 πŸ‘ 146 πŸ” 41 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 1
Norwegian new passenger cars sales by type: Monthly

Norwegian new passenger cars sales by type: Monthly

US new light-duty vehicle sales by type: Monthly

US new light-duty vehicle sales by type: Monthly

Tale of two petrostates.

Data from @robbieandrew.bsky.social: robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/

11.03.2026 12:22 πŸ‘ 91 πŸ” 43 πŸ’¬ 3 πŸ“Œ 4

😭

11.03.2026 12:09 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

If you stop to think about it, it's hilarious how many politicians have opinions about survey methodology. What exactly is it about YouGov's quota-based sampling methodology or weighting schema that you disagree with Mr Farage?

11.03.2026 11:55 πŸ‘ 13 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Don't replace the Lords - split the Commons What an elected second chamber is for.

On Lords reform, important to have a clear idea of the goal alexparsons.co.uk/blog/posts/s...

11.03.2026 11:07 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

5.6 effective parties in this dammed two-party system

11.03.2026 08:04 πŸ‘ 12 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

πŸ˜…

10.03.2026 13:20 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
The One Political Bias To Avoid More Than Any Other Motivated Causal Attribution

We explain political change using totally different causal models if we approve of outcome of not:

1. Change we like is organic, bottom-up genuine expression of public demand

2. Change we dislike is artificial, top-down result of manipulative elite

I’m calling this Motivated Causal Attribution

10.03.2026 09:10 πŸ‘ 39 πŸ” 12 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 3

And so we write to brilliant postgraduate students from Sudan, withdrawing the offers and scholarships they won in open competition with the best in the world. A sad day for the University of Oxford.

10.03.2026 09:38 πŸ‘ 581 πŸ” 218 πŸ’¬ 23 πŸ“Œ 14

(In all seriousness, I think MMP is probably the easiest sell in the UK, even if I agree with the hat)

10.03.2026 10:19 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

😎

10.03.2026 10:19 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Maybe I need to sell merch

10.03.2026 10:18 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

I got it made!

10.03.2026 10:18 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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In other words, agree with the hat and then read David's article!

10.03.2026 10:16 πŸ‘ 5 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 2 πŸ“Œ 0

As a member of team PR, I appreciate the provocation. But, genuinely, it's great to see this sort of debate emerge. Electoral reform feels closer than it has for ages, even if it's still some way off.

10.03.2026 10:16 πŸ‘ 17 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Every second of free time you have ever had in your life was subsidized by the existence of the combine harvester.

09.03.2026 19:53 πŸ‘ 1625 πŸ” 245 πŸ’¬ 30 πŸ“Œ 15
Sandy Sandilands, the UK Defence AttachΓ© to the United Arab Emirates

Sandy Sandilands, the UK Defence AttachΓ© to the United Arab Emirates

Sorry, but I just learned about the UK defence attachΓ© to the United Arab Emirates, then I had to spend ages verifying that instance of nominative determinism

10.03.2026 05:15 πŸ‘ 26 πŸ” 10 πŸ’¬ 5 πŸ“Œ 1

Tbf, if we can use AI to make the cost of some forms of labour β‰ˆ0 then neoliberalism falls apart anyway. So maybe everyone's using it that way?

09.03.2026 22:17 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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In the UK it's also doing our work

09.03.2026 22:12 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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Anthropic have this cool "Anthropic Economic Index" thing. But kinda bleak that the most common topic in most US states is "Complete academic assignments". We have our work cut out for us.

09.03.2026 22:11 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0
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As an IR professor, it's depressing that this is outperforming all others as the best theory of US foreign policy

09.03.2026 21:12 πŸ‘ 10051 πŸ” 2433 πŸ’¬ 169 πŸ“Œ 110

Well done!

09.03.2026 20:28 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Equally surprised and delighted to win this!

09.03.2026 18:45 πŸ‘ 47 πŸ” 6 πŸ’¬ 16 πŸ“Œ 0