Gas costs $6 a gallon and the economy lost 100,000 jobs last month. But the characters in Raya and the Last Dragon did not have identifiable races. I have never felt more politically homeless.
This is the “fool me once” moment.
Equities traders might be playing Wile E Coyote running on air, but corporates aren’t going to be caught off guard like they were during COVID.
Sorry if you think a $20B reinsurance guarantee program is going to move the needle when we've had multiple ships sunk in the strait today alone...I have a regime change plan in Iran to sell you.
So are they the only insurer? Or are there others?
Is this just…half Chubb?
Hahahaha
Jim Cramer suggests on CNBC that Trump could “bomb Tehran into the Stone Age” until Iran reopens the strait, citing U.S. bombings of North Vietnam in the 1970s. Carl Quintanilla points out to him that Hanoi won that war.
There were folks in my mentions saying “no, in fact sulphuric acid is not as big a deal as the Twitter post claims it is”…and folks, I’m here to tell you it in fact is, and anyone telling you otherwise doesn’t know how supply chains work.
See below 👇
bsky.app/profile/scot...
This is something that everyone can fix with time, but you don't just reposition and commit transportation infra overnight. Obviously the US is pretty well insulated as a direct consumer of the acid...we've got the Gulf megahub.
But we could really suffer as midstream suppliers in Asia get hit.
It's not an expensive product itself. Transportation is a major cost driver, because again, you need it in large quantities and consistently delivered.
And guess what, many of the mines that use it are in the middle of effing nowhere. Often can't just piggyback on someone else's supply lines.
If you lose access to your supplier, you don't just go to the store and say "good day sir, could you please supply me with 2000 tonnes over the next 3 months"...you need the infrastructure (i.e., ships, rail, trucks) set up to deliver a consistent supply to you.
Yes, sulphuric acid is a waste product from petroleum refining, etc. and not particularly hard to obtain with appropriate lead time.
But like, these supply chains are established though longer term supply contracts and aren't done as merchant sales. You don't have drop-in replacements waiting.
There were folks in my mentions saying “no, in fact sulphuric acid is not as big a deal as the Twitter post claims it is”…and folks, I’m here to tell you it in fact is, and anyone telling you otherwise doesn’t know how supply chains work.
See below 👇
bsky.app/profile/scot...
I still can’t believe we didn’t refill the SPR at $60 in anticipation of this
IR is an anti-degree. Regional specialization or go home
If you thought China was selling a lot of batteries and solar panels before, you’re going to love what happens next.
I don’t know how I feel about a senator running out and publicly revealing stuff from a classified briefing, even the non-classified stuff.
But also I feel like…what else can you do?
Whitfield was Trump +44 in 2024.
Hereby declaring him Coolest Dude In America
I'm not looking for a big shift. I'm looking for 40% D share that splits evenly enough between two Dems to carry them into the runoff over the GOP clusterf***.
Beyond that fluke potential, it's just not really worth paying attention to.
How much did DOGE cut again?
Netanyahu to Trump
This is a hill I’m going to die on. And I’m going to be pedantic and obnoxious about it for the next three years.
The moderator on my conference panel today (inadvertently) referenced the Department of War.
So when she asked me a question shortly thereafter, I immediately said “Just to be clear, there is no such thing as the Department of War.”
It’s the Taco Bell ground beef of TACOs.
The “read an old book that isn’t Sun Tzu, Marcus Aurelius, or Machiavelli” Challenge
Beware the Fake TACO.
Spooked by markets, he makes stuff up to a credulous press. Gets the calming headlines, and the situation hasn’t actually changed.
🤡^2
