@florianjehn.fediscience.org.ap.brid.gy
Aggressively agreeable | currently exploring the overlap of #ExistentialRisk, #FoodSecurity, #NuclearWinter and #Collapse | also quite interested in […] 🌉 bridged from https://fediscience.org/@florianjehn on the fediverse by https://fed.brid.gy/
Old picture from Greece of two police men who have a captured brigand with them.
Who actually shapes global risk?
One common answer is to focus on individual apocalyptic actors, like terrorists aiming to end the world. But are these groups really what we should be on the lookout for most? Or should we not also consider institutional […]
[Original post on fediscience.org]
Old picture from Greece of two police men who have a captured brigand with them.
Who actually shapes global risk?
One common answer is to focus on individual apocalyptic actors, like terrorists aiming to end the world. But are these groups really what we should be on the lookout for most? Or should we not also consider institutional […]
[Original post on fediscience.org]
A picture from the First World War, showing snow covered trees, who have been damaged by explosions.
New post about the state of research around nuclear war and nuclear winter, with a focus on the food system.
This one's a bit different, as it was originally an invited contribution to the United Nations Independent Scientific Panel on the Effects of Nuclear […]
[Original post on fediscience.org]
A picture from the First World War, showing snow covered trees, who have been damaged by explosions.
New post about the state of research around nuclear war and nuclear winter, with a focus on the food system.
This one's a bit different, as it was originally an invited contribution to the United Nations Independent Scientific Panel on the Effects of Nuclear […]
[Original post on fediscience.org]
‘AltMetric’-style services, which track citations to academic papers outside of academic literature—so in the news, social media, etc.—have been quick to incorporate #BlueSky posts, but I’ve yet to see one that includes the #fediverse
I can see that (real) decentralisation makes it harder to […]
A global map with countries being colored by the severity of their worst crop production shocks. Especially, in Africa many countries experienced severe shocks, but on other continents as well.
New paper is out!
We identified the worst crop shock every country experienced since 1961: the global average was −29%, with Botswana even losing 80% in a single year. Climate—especially drought—was the leading cause, although conflict is also a major […]
[Original post on fediscience.org]
An old church, partly collapse due to bombing in the First World War.
Had a great conversation with Samuel Arbesman on the podcast "The Orthogonal Bet" about all things collapse. If you are curious about the interdisciplinary nature of collapse studies, how it connects history to global catastrophic risk, and how societal […]
[Original post on fediscience.org]
An old church, partly collapse due to bombing in the First World War.
Had a great conversation with Samuel Arbesman on the podcast "The Orthogonal Bet" about all things collapse. If you are curious about the interdisciplinary nature of collapse studies, how it connects history to global catastrophic risk, and how societal […]
[Original post on fediscience.org]
An old French poster to sell national bonds after the First World War. Golden statue in the background, ruins in the foreground.
One important factor to understanding the impact of global catastrophes is economics. How might agricultural prices rise? What are the general economic outlooks? In the next post in my living literature review I try to explore exactly this. The literature is […]
[Original post on fediscience.org]
An old French poster to sell national bonds after the First World War. Golden statue in the background, ruins in the foreground.
One important factor to understanding the impact of global catastrophes is economics. How might agricultural prices rise? What are the general economic outlooks? In the next post in my living literature review I try to explore exactly this. The literature is […]
[Original post on fediscience.org]
Baguettes spread out on a table. These symbolize the bread rations in France in WW1.
Next round of updates for my #LivingLiteratureReview. This means I go back to the old posts and add new papers I found, to make sure that everything stays as up to date as possible. Posts which got updated this time:
* Mapping out collapse research ( […]
[Original post on fediscience.org]
Baguettes spread out on a table. These symbolize the bread rations in France in WW1.
Next round of updates for my #LivingLiteratureReview. This means I go back to the old posts and add new papers I found, to make sure that everything stays as up to date as possible. Posts which got updated this time:
* Mapping out collapse research ( […]
[Original post on fediscience.org]
A orange tinted, old picture from an old house near a river. There are snow capped mountains in the background.
For #GlobalWarming it seems that we are on a pathway to be clearly above 1.5°C and arguably also clearly above 2°C. In my new post I summarize research that highlights why this is the case and also how much of these higher temperatures ranges we really have […]
[Original post on fediscience.org]
A orange tinted, old picture from an old house near a river. There are snow capped mountains in the background.
For #GlobalWarming it seems that we are on a pathway to be clearly above 1.5°C and arguably also clearly above 2°C. In my new post I summarize research that highlights why this is the case and also how much of these higher temperatures ranges we really have […]
[Original post on fediscience.org]
"In August 2025, Google announced that starting next year, it will no longer be possible to develop apps for the Android platform without first registering centrally with Google." What tis means for your rights, and how you can help: https://keepandroidopen.org
A dark and small alley with houses high up on both sides. In the middle of the picture is a street lamp which is hit by sun light from the side and casts an interesting shadow on one of the buildings.
Remember the beautiful auroras last year? These occur when solar particles interact with Earth's magnetic field. When #Earth is hit by large amounts of these particles, this is called a #GeomagneticStorm. Geomagnetic storms can induce currents into the […]
[Original post on fediscience.org]
A dark and small alley with houses high up on both sides. In the middle of the picture is a street lamp which is hit by sun light from the side and casts an interesting shadow on one of the buildings.
Remember the beautiful auroras last year? These occur when solar particles interact with Earth's magnetic field. When #Earth is hit by large amounts of these particles, this is called a #GeomagneticStorm. Geomagnetic storms can induce currents into the […]
[Original post on fediscience.org]
I have written a new draft for my blog about the potential damages that can be caused by a #GeomagneticStorm. I am looking for someone familiar with this topic to review it for accuracy. If this is you, please write me a message. If this is not you, please consider boosting this message.
A large, dark blue curtain halfway hiding a large, somewhat modern looking iron gate. An out of focus person is standing at the edge of the curtain.
New post on my blog. I summarized Peter Turchin's book "End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration". The post gives an overview of how #StructuralDemographicTheory works and how this explains the present political and social […]
[Original post on fediscience.org]
A large, dark blue curtain halfway hiding a large, somewhat modern looking iron gate. An out of focus person is standing at the edge of the curtain.
New post on my blog. I summarized Peter Turchin's book "End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration". The post gives an overview of how #StructuralDemographicTheory works and how this explains the present political and social […]
[Original post on fediscience.org]
A three panel figure showing the distribution of wheat trading communities now, after a nuclear war and after a loss of industrial production. The impacts of the nuclear war are considerably larger with many countries having to switch their trade community.
(1/4) We modeled how global food trade would collapse after catastrophic events like nuclear war or infrastructure loss. It matters enormously where damage occurs, not just how much. Especially, in nuclear winter many countries would loose the majority of […]
[Original post on fediscience.org]
(4/4) Our model is open source and available for other researchers to explore scenarios: https://github.com/allfed/pytradeshifts
This is urgent work. The probability of at least one major food system shock this century is high and rising. We need better preparation strategies.
#OpenScience […]
(3/4) Even "smaller" nuclear wars have massive trade impacts. At just 5 Tg of soot, some countries lose 50% of #maize imports. At 16 Tg, many countries face major import losses across all major crops.
This matters for nuclear policy: limiting escalation is crucial even if conflict begins. The […]
Global map showing the distribution of relative food import losses for abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios and global catastrophic infrastructure loss. Northern Hemisphere countries in nuclear war scenario loose most.
(2/4) Even when two catastrophes cause similar global yield losses, their effects on trade are dramatically different.
Abrupt sunlight reduction (#NuclearWar, #supervolcano) concentrates damage in high-latitude major exporters → severe trade disruption […]
[Original post on fediscience.org]
A three panel figure showing the distribution of wheat trading communities now, after a nuclear war and after a loss of industrial production. The impacts of the nuclear war are considerably larger with many countries having to switch their trade community.
(1/4) We modeled how global food trade would collapse after catastrophic events like nuclear war or infrastructure loss. It matters enormously where damage occurs, not just how much. Especially, in nuclear winter many countries would loose the majority of […]
[Original post on fediscience.org]
World map that shows the largest crop production shocks. These range from around -10 % in countries like China and up to -80% in some parts of Africa. The dataset is from 1961-2023.
New preprint: "The Largest Crop Production Shocks: Magnitude, Causes and Frequency"
Large #CropFailures happen regularly around the world, threatening #FoodSecurity. We analyzed sixty years of global crop production data and found that every country has […]
[Original post on fediscience.org]
World map that shows the largest crop production shocks. These range from around -10 % in countries like China and up to -80% in some parts of Africa. The dataset is from 1961-2023.
New preprint: "The Largest Crop Production Shocks: Magnitude, Causes and Frequency"
Large #CropFailures happen regularly around the world, threatening #FoodSecurity. We analyzed sixty years of global crop production data and found that every country has […]
[Original post on fediscience.org]
Abandoned trenches in the desert.
#ClimateChange, #NuclearWinter, and #StratosphericAerosolInjection are all human-made interventions in the climate system. They share the potential to be massively disruptive to the habitability of this planet. Usually, we see them as separate catastrophes […]
[Original post on fediscience.org]
Abandoned trenches in the desert.
#ClimateChange, #NuclearWinter, and #StratosphericAerosolInjection are all human-made interventions in the climate system. They share the potential to be massively disruptive to the habitability of this planet. Usually, we see them as separate catastrophes […]
[Original post on fediscience.org]
A worn out path vanishing into the distance. Two large elephant statues are left and right of it. In the distance you can see some mountains with a large complex at the base of them.
New theory on how #SocietalCollapse works just dropped. In his book "Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse”, @lukekemp describes how human societies repeatedly fall into the same trap: when resources become easily controlled and people […]
[Original post on fediscience.org]