Nathaniel Rakich's Avatar

Nathaniel Rakich

@baseballot

Managing editor @votebeat.org. Previously senior editor and senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Email, don't DM: nrakich at votebeat dot org

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Latest posts by Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot

1. BUGONIA
2. MARTY SUPREME
3. ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
4. THE SECRET AGENT
5. HAMNET
6. SINNERS
7. SENTIMENTAL VALUE
8. TRAIN DREAMS
——The Good Movie Line——
9. FRANKENSTEIN
10. F1

11.03.2026 02:24 👍 20 🔁 0 💬 3 📌 0
Preview
Clayton Fuller and Shawn Harris Advance to Runoff in Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Georgia District Clayton Fuller will face Shawn Harris, a Democrat, in an April runoff. Mr. Fuller’s win over a flashier Republican showed the power of the president’s support.

Trump-backed Clayton Fuller and the Democrat Shawn Harris advanced to a runoff in a special election in Georgia to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene in Congress.

11.03.2026 01:00 👍 78 🔁 16 💬 7 📌 8

I also know it’s the most journalist thing ever to complain about journalists’ portrayals in film, but that skeptical journalist agreeing to a bet with Brad Pitt?? Come on.

10.03.2026 04:14 👍 8 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0

F1 is a movie that asks the question, “What if you remade TOP GUN: MAVERICK without a lead as likable as Tom Cruise?”

10.03.2026 04:12 👍 29 🔁 0 💬 5 📌 0

He is not the only Venezuelan player who experienced this over the winter.

10.03.2026 00:14 👍 112 🔁 45 💬 1 📌 0
Preview
AP Elections Decision Analyst AP Elections Decision Analyst

This is a great job opportunity for a quanty election person. I know a lot of you like making your own race calls; why not get paid for it? 😉 careers.ap.org/job/Washingt...

09.03.2026 19:01 👍 12 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 0

After provisional ballots were counted today, Page has expanded his lead over Berger to 23 votes. A recount is likely.

07.03.2026 04:03 👍 35 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0

The AP has called the #NC04 Democratic primary for Rep. Valerie Foushee. She narrowly survives a challenge from progressive Nida Allam, 49–48%.

07.03.2026 04:01 👍 18 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 1

Scoop from @nataliaecm.bsky.social: After hand-counting primary ballots, Republicans in Calhoun County, TX, failed to submit results to the county within 24 hours of polls closing, a violation of state law. www.votebeat.org/texas/2026/0...

07.03.2026 03:59 👍 34 🔁 3 💬 3 📌 0
A plaque noting that Ashley Moody was the Florida Strawberry Festival Queen in 1993.

A plaque noting that Ashley Moody was the Florida Strawberry Festival Queen in 1993.

I’m at the Florida Strawberry Festival, where they hold a “Strawberry Queen” pageant every year. Look who was the Strawberry Queen in 1993…

06.03.2026 20:45 👍 14 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0

Did Chalamet take Kevin O’Leary’s plane there?

06.03.2026 12:02 👍 13 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Saw this last night, it was delightful

06.03.2026 10:55 👍 33 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0

I feel like it’s OK to note when a player is a triple shy of the cycle if they do it before the end of the 2nd inning.

(Shohei Ohtani just did that in Japan’s 1st WBC game)

06.03.2026 10:54 👍 30 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0

The AP projects the Republican primary for Arkansas secretary of state will go to a runoff between Kim Hammer and Bryan Norris. Hammer sponsored a series of laws to restrict ballot initiatives; Norris has Mike Lindell’s endorsement.

06.03.2026 00:00 👍 10 🔁 1 💬 2 📌 0

The AP has projected that the #TX32 Republican primary will go to a runoff between Trump endorsee Jace Yarbrough and 2024 presidential also-ran Ryan Binkley. This is one of the new safe Republican seats created by redistricting.

05.03.2026 23:51 👍 6 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
A screenshot of the NCSL Senate appointments website showing a wait time.

A screenshot of the NCSL Senate appointments website showing a wait time.

The hottest club in DC is the @ncslorg.bsky.social Senate appointments webpage

05.03.2026 19:05 👍 12 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0

LOL, yes

04.03.2026 23:51 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

The GOP primary in #TX38 (a safe red seat being vacated by Wesley Hunt) is also going to a runoff. Trump endorsee Jon Bonck is way ahead with 47%, but he'll go head-to-head with Shelly deZevallos (currently at 19%).

04.03.2026 20:00 👍 7 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

The AP is projecting that former Rep. Colin Allred (currently at 44% of the vote) and Rep. Julie Johnson (33%) will head to a runoff in the #TX33 Democratic primary.

04.03.2026 19:57 👍 16 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

Our reporter @nataliaecm.bsky.social is in Eastland County, TX, where Republicans insisted on hand-counting their primary ballots—and, as a result, are *still counting.* www.votebeat.org/texas/2026/0...

04.03.2026 17:14 👍 83 🔁 25 💬 3 📌 8
Post image

With Callais not out yet & no opinion likely until late March at the earliest, it is becoming functionally too late for most southern states to redraw maps.

By the end of March, primaries will have happened in TX, NC, & MS & mail ballots will go out shortly after in AL, GA, and LA.

04.03.2026 15:54 👍 65 🔁 24 💬 4 📌 3

Reps. Christian Menefee and Al Green are heading to a runoff in the Democratic primary for the redistricted #TX18. Green ended up doing better than expected, trailing Menefee just 46–44%, so the runoff is anyone's game.

04.03.2026 17:03 👍 15 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0
Preview
After grueling hand count in 2024, a Texas county tries again When Gillespie County Republicans hand-counted the 2024 primary, it took all night and led to several errors. That didn’t stop them from doing it again in 2026.

I stayed up all night (and I’m still awake) in Gillespie County as workers counted paper ballots by hand in 13 precincts — and county officials worked to turn those tallies into official results. Here’s how it went: www.votebeat.org/texas/2026/0...

04.03.2026 13:05 👍 72 🔁 16 💬 4 📌 1

Pole sitting, electing randos to the Hall of Fame... It was a strange time.

04.03.2026 09:43 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

#TX35 is a reach Democratic target this fall, and we'll have to wait until May to find out who the Dem nominee is. The AP is projecting a runoff between Maureen Galindo and Johnny Garcia.

04.03.2026 09:15 👍 19 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

The AP has called the Republican primary in #TX10 for attorney Chris Gober, who also oversaw Elon Musk's PAC. This is a solid Republican seat being vacated by Rep. Michael McCaul.

04.03.2026 09:14 👍 9 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

The AP has called the closely watched Democratic #TXsen primary for state Rep. James Talarico. He beats Rep. Jasmine Crockett 53–46%.

04.03.2026 07:47 👍 111 🔁 18 💬 0 📌 7

Nope. This district didn't change too much in the redraw; it was Trump+18 before and Trump+18 after.

04.03.2026 06:57 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

The AP is also projecting a GOP runoff in #TX09, one of the new solid-red seats created by redistricting. Trump endorsee Alex Mealer leads with 37%, but hard-right state Rep. Briscoe Cain is close behind with 31%. (Old friend alert: former Rep. Steve Stockman is in 3rd with 17%.)

04.03.2026 06:50 👍 15 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

The AP is projecting a runoff in the GOP primary for #TX23, where scandal-plagued Rep. Tony Gonzales and YouTube gun influencer Brandon Herrera each have 43%. (In fact, they're currently separated by just 4 votes, although it doesn't matter who finishes first.)

04.03.2026 06:45 👍 20 🔁 3 💬 1 📌 0