Publication alert! New paper on international climate politics! Multilateralism is on decline and international cooperation is getting messier. International climate politics is full of public-private collaboration and informal intergovernmental organizations. How does this work? 1/2
«If you rule out the fast phase out of fossil fuels, then you have to either remove carbon from the atmosphere, or reflect sunlight. Who decided that geoengineering was more feasible than rapid fossil fuel phase out?»
The third #EYECLIMA Outlook is published, summarising all the deliverables in the third year of the EYE-CLIMA project. Check it out: eyeclima.eu/products/eye...
Here is a snapshot of one deliverable, identifying point sources of CH4 using satellites.
"...the higher the peak temperature, the more difficult it is to reverse temperature below critical levels and the longer it’s likely that we’ll remain in ‘overshoot’.” - @njsteinert.bsky.social, @cicero.oslo.no
#ClimateEmergency
If... "you screw up your economy trying to drastically reduce your emissions"
Ah, which country is doing that (or even trying to do that)?
Countries deploying wind, solar, EVs, etc, seem to be doing just fine to me. Modelling does not suggest that climate policy screws your economy either.
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Graph showing: China domestic sales of heavy trucks (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/china/)
📢Big surge in new-energy heavy truck sales in China in December to meet policy targets and rushing to get ahead of policy changes.
In December, only 31.2% of heavy trucks were diesel, and for the full year 46.4%.
The numbers are in.
▸Tesla sales in the EU in 2025 down 37.9% compared to 2024.
▸EU battery-electric share rose to 17.4%.
Oh yes, we wrote about that in 2019, then there was COVID, then Ukraine, then we thought the end of gas was around the corner. No.
Gas will probably keep putting upward pressure on emissions in the years ahead, even if coal tanks: rdcu.be/bYf1O
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The International Energy Agency (IEA) has regular reports (monthly, quarterly) which provide short-term projections of coal, oil, & gas.
As of January 2026, it looks like fossil CO2 emissions in 2026 will be relatively flat: the drop in coal (-1%) offset by growth in gas (2%) & oil (0.8%).
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I'm not sure I entirely understand. We're approaching a glut of LNG with both the US and Qatar in particular ramping up capacity to export, among others. Because it's on ships, Europe can buy it from anywhere. Pipes are something else entirely. 🎁🔗
Graph showing: US new light-duty vehicle sales by type: Monthly (Source: https://robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/)
Just updated: USA, California (two sources), Singapore.
The bounce induced by policy change in the US is clear in the data.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/
Figure A-1. Annual wind capacity additions, 1992-2014 (source: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/supplement/renewable/pdf/projections.pdf)
Fascinating figure from the EIA. The part at the bottom highlights the repeated patterns of policies reaching end of life, and being renewed again. Over and over again.
A consequence of this was that EIA's projections, based on current policy, kept saying that US wind installations would stall.
"No non-radical pathways" is a climate soundbite I think we should all talk about more... @kevinclimate.bsky.social
Interesting.
You wonder how emissions scenarios generated by IAMs are used- in practice - by decision makers, both in the public and private sector? Read our new paper!
Oh, looks like we should pull out the research we did 20 years ago on the importance of multi-regional models...
(yes, yes, these things need to be repeated I guess, but this one should have been settled decades ago)
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
How are scenarios used?
Scenarios are used for contrasting purposes but are often actively interpreted and processed by informed users who are aware of different scenarios’ strengths, limitations and uncertainties.
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
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If the last decade has taught Europe anything, it should be that reliance on fossil fuel imports is a strategic liability which will be exploited.
Climate aside, decarbonisation is security.
www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
Flere land har nedadgående utslipp, men det finnes ingen garantier for at trenden vil fortsette. Spesielt i USA er utviklingen usikker. @robbieandrew.bsky.social
cicero.oslo.no/no/artikler/...
The reduction in oil from 2019 to 2050 varies a lot depending on model, scenario, & climate outcome.
There is a lot of overlap, despite a shifting distribution.
A level of oil in 2050 could be consistent with 1.5°C or 2.5°C, but the rest of the energy system counterbalances.
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A rare bit of good news from the US. House republicans seem to be pushing back against Trump's huge proposed cuts to science.
NSF, NASA, NOAA - all look set to be near flat, or - for DOE - even a slight increase.
www.economist.com/united-state...
Screenshot from US Minerals Yearbook 1970
55 years ago. The US introducing significantly strongly regulations on air pollution led to big changes in the cement industry. This from the 1970 minerals yearbook.
Back in 2008, the EIA believed that natural gas production would be flat through 2030. Then came fracking.
