@danieltroberts.com
PhD Candidate @Harvard Gov. Political Economist researching on the politics of opportunity. Credit Access, Education, and Labor Market policy in US, Germany, and Japan + affects on global financial stability. On the market. https://www.danieltroberts.com/
Besides being available on SocArXiv, it is available as a direct pdf: (danieltroberts.github.io/working_pape...). A pdf version of poster can be found directly at this link (danieltroberts.github.io/market_suppl...). My website www.danieltroberts.com has info on the broader dissertation project!
The figures are less aesthetically pleasing than in the latest version, and I wasn't able to include my formal model of what I theorize as "boundary defense" given space constraints, so please take a look at the more comprehensive explainer thread below if interested!
bsky.app/profile/dani...
I'll be presenting a poster on one of my job market papers at APSA in Vancouver today from 12:30-1 PM, as part of the Comparative Politics Section! Location is East Exhibit Level, East Exhibit Hall A. Come find me I'd love to discuss! Image of poster below, Working paper here: osf.io/preprints/so...
False positive resolved! I promise my website is (and was) safe to visit π
@searchliaison.bsky.social decided the first day of APSA of all possible days that my website hosted *by them* is a phishing scam π you can still bypass the @developer.chrome.com warning and reach my site. Resolving but in the meantime please email me at Danielroberts @ g.harvard.edu if you have qs!
Just getting ready for the Job Market, so I uploaded a new working paper to my website (www.lotemhalevy.com/research.html), along with some other goodies.
The paper should be available on SSRN shortly!
To close with an analogy that I can't help but help myself to as a Japanese-American: by no means does everyone need to be a multi-way player. But most teams probably wouldn't be hurt by having one on their roster. I would appreciate the opportunity to make that case in person!γ
I know: not typical to have 2 JMPs + prepped talks. I consider myself a political economist who crosses subfields, while being able to draw from and contribute to subfield-specific literatures. If you're a department who wants a collaborative colleague who bridges subfields, we could be a good fit!
1/2 JMPs I will have newly out for the poli sci market. Consider this a hard launch! Will have a second JMP too. This one asks why congress rolled back Dodd Frank, causing 3/4 largest bank failures in US history 2023. My answer: local dependency, not instrumental power. Working paper out ~week!
So: not a Gucci Protest after all! These are German-specific empirics but should have implications broadly, weighs in favor of boundary defense vs theories that unequal opportunity explained by elite prefs. Maybe way to address unequal opportunity is policy reducing marginal insiders' insecurity?
Referendum supporters rewarded Scholz. The SPD won in a landslide in snap election triggered by collapse of Christian Democrat (CDU) + Greens coalition after their reform was blocked. Referendum voters defected from CDU to vote for Scholz/SPD shown in precinct and micro data.
Qualitative record show electorally-motivated politicians responded. Hamburg's SPD chief & future Hamburg mayor, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz campaigned against reform, despite pressure from co-partisan elites, citing insecure voters' interests. See e.g. taz.de/Hamburgs-SPD-...
Survey-weighted regressions from election study show parents of school-age kids without academic education themselves were more likely to vote for the referendum. Ideology suggestive explainer for other respondents, but this non-academic background for parents of school-age kids.
Vote-WLS regressions show precincts in below median income areas vote more for referendum. Precincts in places with low academic sorting, high immigrant shares did on average too. But appendix shows this is from specific extreme precincts (e.g. in industrial area of Billbrook), not across support.
Synthetic difference-in-differences using data across German states suggest that the reform causally reduced native-born German students sorting to academic schools. Very imprecisely (95% CI [-4.5%, +1.7%]) due to power issues, but appendix discusses why this CI is an overly pessimistic upper bound
Trends show German families already didn't rely on intermediate schools in Hamburg vs rest of Germany pre-reform, which is why consolidation succeeded. But higher share sort to academic schools in Hamburg. Trends show reform lowered native-born students sorting to academic schools, raised immigrants
I argue this was boundary defense. Less well-off Germans rely on early sorting, it secures academic access vs immigrants. Used to rely on sorting between intermediate/basic tracks, but no longer in Hamburg pre-reform. This explains why these were consolidated, but early sorting reform failed
The movement didn't care that reformers consolidated non-academic schools, but did oppose delaying sorting & removing parents' choice. They got their referendum and won resoundingly: 58-42%. Maybe only the rich turned out? But referendum vote in Hamburg (left) doesn't quite match income (right).
I test this general theory on a specific 2010 referendum against a reform to early age sorting across unequal schools in Hamburg, Germany. In 2009, the "we want to learn" movement organized against this reform. German media called it a "Gucci Protest", casting them as upper-middle class elites
This hurts "marginal outsiders" who would otherwise be upwardly mobile from reform. Whether or marginal insiders' "boundary defense" succeeds depends on secure insiders' pro-reform preferences (efficiency benefits), marginal outsiders' representation, and specific size of the marginal insider group
I agree, and argue that "marginal insiders" defend policies that allow them to hoard opportunities against reform when they lack alternatives to secure uncertain status. Well-off "secure insiders" don't need to: they buy opportunity access, just like with private alternatives to social policy.
Previous literature argues that "elite domination" of politics explains inequality. Politicians listen to rich more than poor voters, so policy favors them. Work on opportunity specifically blames upper middle-class "dream hoarders". But Tilly said insecure groups like immigrants "opportunity hoard"
This is an example of a policy that reinforces what Charles Tilly calls "durable inequalities" -- persistent unequal opportunities between social groups. These pervade rich democracies, not just Germany. Aspirational voters' pressure should reform these (Iversen&Soskice 2019), but they're resilient.
"As early as age 9" children in Germany are sorted across stratified school tracks. Some to tracks where most go on to universities, others where most don't. Literature suggests this is bad for both equity (immigrant students) and efficiency (worse overall education outcomes). Yet it persists. Why?
New Working Paper! Why do policies that reinforce unequal opportunities persist? Some blame elites. I argue less secure families defend these "boundaries" against reform and call this "boundary defense". I test this on a 2010 referendum against school reform in Hamburg. Link: osf.io/preprints/soc...
Whether you are a new or old follower, hello! A quick announcement -- I'll post a new working paper by the end of the weekend on "Boundary Defense". Abstract below, SocArXiv link soon to come. 1 of 2 projects whose WP release coincides with being on the poli sci market. Consider this a soft-launch!
Iβm very excited to share that my paper βCleavage theory meets civil society: A framework and research agendaβ with @eborbath.bsky.social & Swen Hutter has now been published online in βͺ@wepsocial.bsky.socialβ¬ (w/ open access funding thanks to @wzb.bsky.socialβ¬!)
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
I'll present on the politics of Dodd-Frank rollback today at @cape-team.bsky.social Annual Conference in a great panel on "Business and Civil Society" together with Jane Sumner & Andrew Kerner,
@alanyan.bsky.social, and @jaeyeonkim.bsky.social. Hope to see you there, Working Paper out in ~ a month!
Join us for the 5th Research Conference on the American Political Economy, July 28-30 on zoom, 12-2:30pm ET, to discuss cutting-edge APE research!
Register here: yale.zoom.us/meeting/regi... or check out the program (www.americanpoliticaleconomy.org/events/annua...) featuring@adambonica.bsky.social
Just musings, but have thought that 2024 Trump campaign (or at least its big money tech backers) had a perception of doing such "ends against the middle" type politics vs a self-satisfied mid-class elite in its messaging. If anyone has empirical ideas for a paper on theme dm me?