In a new report co-authored with Jaya Sood, Dominic Caddick and Maike Schmidt at @neweconomics.bsky.social, we find that EU debt-to-GDP could be 58 percentage points higher than official projections by 2050 under business as usual. By 2070, that rises to nearly 200 points above forecasts.
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To enable the necessary investments, we need to reform fiscal rules to allow more flexibility for green spending and common borrowing for shared EU projects such as grids, industrial base, adaptation.
Both are policies that Europe has already embraced. First for COVID, now for rearmament.
Yet the debate in Brussels right now is about deregulation. Rolling back green rules to boost competitiveness.
This research shows that is the wrong answer.
Investing sufficiently in mitigation and adaptation
✅Reduces emissions. Less warming means less damage means lower debt
✅Generates economic activity well above its cost
✅Through adaptation, reduces the fiscal cost of climate shocks
Climate change damages debt through three channels:
📉 Weaker GDP and lower tax revenues as climate shocks hit productivity, agriculture, energy, tourism and other sectors
📉 Billions in disaster repair costs
📉 Higher borrowing costs as investors price in sovereign climate risk
In a new report co-authored with Jaya Sood, Dominic Caddick and Maike Schmidt at @neweconomics.bsky.social, we find that EU debt-to-GDP could be 58 percentage points higher than official projections by 2050 under business as usual. By 2070, that rises to nearly 200 points above forecasts.
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Sadly suppressing such a devastating report doesn’t make the risks go away - it just makes them even harder to deal with. Facing up to the truth is the first step to coping with it - it’s beyond scandalous that ministers tried to prevent this. They need to act - and fast
How does Europe move forward in light of Donald Trump's actions on Greenland?
@sebmang.bsky.social was on Al Jazeera to explain how we reduce our dependency on the US
"We also need a new economic playbook and a serious strategy to reduce risky dependencies, including on the US - starting with energy..."
@sebmang.bsky.social wrote for LBC about why in an increasingly unstable world we need to to speed up the green transition
www.lbc.co.uk/article/stro...
'A strong Europe is the only way we will survive Trump's new world order'
✍️ @sebmang.bsky.social for LBC Opinion
The debate on central bank independence too often caricatural and polarized by extreme positions.
In this op-ed with @sebmang.bsky.social we try to strike a fine balance, and argue that the best way to defend central bank independence is to reinvent it at the same time.
Only just seen this. Thanks so much, Barney. Really glad it lifted your day a bit, and it’s lifted mine to hear that!
Es braucht einen Erneuerungsplan – angepasst an die veränderten Bedingungen der globalen politischen Ökonomie, gegen Rechtsruck, für Zusammenhalt, eingebettet in europäische Industriepolitik.
Mit @jasonhickel.bsky.social & @sebmang.bsky.social – @surplusmagazin.bsky.social
tinyurl.com/vr5pvxhn
Deutschland braucht eine europäische Industriestrategie, um krisenfest zu werden. Das erfordert eine starke Daseinsvorsorge, schreiben @rbaernthaler.bsky.social , @sebmang.bsky.social und @jasonhickel.bsky.social
We wrote a short piece for @uk.theconversation.com on the pitfalls of current industrial policy—and how it can be reconfigured to be fit for an era of polycrises.
With @jasonhickel.bsky.social & @sebmang.bsky.social
@envleeds.bsky.social @icta-uab.bsky.social
theconversation.com/climate-conf...
I can’t help but scratch my head at the anti-green, deregulation rhetoric currently circulating in Germany.
Rationalising regulations, like supply chain reporting, makes sense — but halting investments is self-defeating for the West’s key clean tech hub.
Let's review a few facts.
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New article with @rbaernthaler.bsky.social and @jasonhickel.bsky.social
EU industrial policy aims for resilience, autonomy & sustainability — but internal contradictions make these goals structurally unrealisable
We outline a post-growth alternative: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
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Our new article is out in Globalizations: Toward a post-growth industrial policy for Europe: navigating emerging tensions and long-term goals.
With @jasonhickel.bsky.social & @sebmang.bsky.social
@envleeds.bsky.social
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Billionaires accumulating more and more wealth is a threat to our democracy, our planet, and the everyday economy.
@sebmang.bsky.social and @febalata.bsky.social wrote for Social Europe on why it's time for an Extreme Wealth Line.
www.socialeurope.eu/how-the-bill...
The @ec.europa.eu study of wealth taxation is welcomed, but it must be backed up by concrete policies, including exploring an #extremewealthline as a tool for democratic engagement and wider policy reform. My piece with @sebmang.bsky.social for Social Europe: www.socialeurope.eu/how-the-bill...
Central banks and governments should work more closely on coordinated policies that will support the net-zero transition, say @sebmang.bsky.social and Dominic Caddick of @neweconomics.bsky.social.
greencb.co/45209uR
Governments and central banks need to work more closely together if we're to tackle future inflationary shocks and the climate crisis.
@sebmang.bsky.social and Dominic Caddick explain in a new piece for @greencb.bsky.social
greencentralbanking.com/2025/05/08/m...
Central banks and governments should work more closely on coordinated policies that will support the net-zero transition, say @sebmang.bsky.social and Dominic Caddick of @neweconomics.bsky.social.
greencb.co/45209uR
Extreme wealth is threatening our planet, our democracy and our shared future.
Toward a Post-Growth Industrial Policy for Europe: Navigating Emerging Tensions & Long-Term Goals
I'll be speaking at Visions for the Future (@ingridrobeyns.bsky.social), sharing work-in-progress with @jasonhickel.bsky.social & @sebmang.bsky.social
tinyurl.com/3msza5vd
@envleeds.bsky.social
China has Made in China 2025, an elaborate industrial policy, designed by an army of competitive bureaucrats and a financial system subordinated to them.
The US at this point has a guy with instinct, now afraid of the bond market
EU leaders have agreed to loosen fiscal rules for defence. But Europe’s security needs more than military spending; it also needs ''economic stability, climate resilience, energy independence, and social cohesion,'' writes @sebmang.bsky.social.
www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/why-military...
The argument that actually punishing Le Pen and her cronies for their crimes will only make them stronger in the long run is a little hard to swallow when we have a prominent example of a right-wing authoritarian who was very much not punished for his crimes and is now wrecking everything in sight.
NEW: Germany’s U-turn proves Europe’s fiscal framework must change
In our latest blog, @sebmang.bsky.social shares how Europe now has the opportunity to break free from rules that have prevented it from building stronger economies.
Read in full: neweconomics.org/2025/04/germ...
We ARE the 6th mass extinction - or should I say the 1st mass extermination
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
