Even in the unlikely (and costly) event the US does manage to contain Iran in the Straits - Trump has done nothing to prepare Americans for the consequences of escalation. The Iranian regime, an expert in sponsoring terrorism, still has many escalation options.
“Billions wasted on military buildup. US lives lost. And an affordability crisis about to smack into the American public like a truck speeding down the freeway.”
There's an element of fatalism when it comes to extreme tail events. These are the 'nuclear bomb dropped on London' type scenarios - if it happened, the shock, loss of life, societal break down etc would be so great that the resultant financial crisis would be subsumed to basic survival.
Oh and before anyone dismisses this, it's a scenario that many insurance companies, central banks and larger finance companies model fairly regularly. Typically the modelled $$$ damage is so extensive that market insurance capacity is exceeded and government pools step in to pick up the bill.
Came here to say the same. Iran also very likely has CBR (chemical biological radiological) weapons capability and active terrorist cells. A dirty bomb (radioactive contaminant) in the Manhattan financial district is probably all they need.
Ukraine's air force shot down every Kh-101 and Kalibr cruise missile fired in today's attack, Air Force spokesman Ihnat said. He described a 100% interception rate on these cruise missiles as extremely rare.
#Ukraine
But that's the problem the Americans have. Iran is not going to lose their mind because they've spent 40 years planning "Death to the Great Satan". An attack on Kharg, and Iran's options for response will be considered strategically. Whilst Trump is acting on 'gut instincts' alone.
Didn't Trump and Hesgeth tell us this morning that all the missiles and launch capability had been destroyed? Like they told us last July that Iran's nuclear capability had been destroyed?
I assume food security reserves cover only the basics - grains, formula etc. They must be running short on fresh imported food well before that? I'm surprised we haven't heard more about this but it seems negative stories are being censored / suppressed?
If the US Marines take Kharg island then Iran has absolutely no reason left to keep the Straits open. One or two vessels sunk in the narrow shipping lanes should do it. No one will venture outside the lanes because - mines. Oh, and Iran most likely has CBR weapons so still has escalation options.
Oh, yep, there it is.
Found this excellent CBC article. In summary there's already mines, the shipping lanes are only 2km wide so shipping is already 'filtered' through the Straits. In the view of experts the deployed US Navy vessels are too large (and expensive) to operate effectively in such a confined area.
Probably to demonstrate that the global consequences of attacking Iran are so painful that nobody thinks to do it again. If that's Iran's goal then there's really no red lines for them in this conflict. Would they deploy CBR weapons? I wouldn't rule it out.
Tough one because there's a whole load of smallish animals that I would feel very unconfident about expelling, top of that list being snakes, closely followed by chickens and spiders.
Yes he was but not sure how relevant that is to UK fascist skinheads in the 70s other than to further highlight the idiocy of fascist nationalists. I also know tea is from China.
Gen Dan (I want to go home) Caine's updates are getting briefer by the day.
Doc Martens will be furious. They'd shaken off the 70s skinheads vibe and now these fascists are trying once again to claim our beloved boots. Yeah I know there's a thousand other things to worry about but it really pisses me off that they try to badge stuff like this. What's next, Yorkshire Tea?
Key statistics on extinction risk and population trends are moving in the wrong direction.
An interim report ahead of #CMSCOP15 finds that 24% of species listed under @cms.int are globally threatened, while 49% have declining populations.
Read the report: www.cms.int/publication/...
(1/2) 37 years ago today I submitted my proposal for the World Wide Web 🎂. Today, Rosemary & I spoke with students in New Orleans at Walter Isaacson's Digital History Class @tulaneu.bsky.social. I was asked, as I often am, if I ever could have foreseen where we’d be today. I could not.
Anecdotally, in my town, buses are fuller, roads a bit quieter and many have turned the heating off or down. Sources: bus driver "it's busier lately" + local cafe. People are worried about how long this is going to last.
* Amazon lays off 16K
* Block lays off 4K
* Oracle's debt downgraded/banks assuming future delinquency
* BlackRock limits investor withdrawals at their private credit fund
* Morgan Stanley follows suit while also laying off 2.5K
The head and wings of a red kite. Its head is grey, and its hooked beak is yellow and black.
Low-level red kite this afternoon.
So it's mainly Iranian oil that's still transiting. However if the Israelis and US continue to obliterate Iran's energy infrastructure to the extent that they can no longer export then Iran has no further need for the tankers or to keep the Straits open and can just mine the shipping lane.
Trump knows that the visuals of a damaged or sunk US Navy vessel are a deal breaker for the mid terms which no amount of rigged voting will fix. No other shits given for crew, economic losses etc.
Is Chubb only fronting the Hull & Machinery and Cargo risks ie material damage loss? Chubb usually only plays in the liability market in a limited way ~$50m so P&I Clubs capacity will still be required? Trump's probably said he won't cover pollution risks because it's 'environmental'/woke. 🤦
Compared to 2022, the gas side of this crisis is translating differently to power.
*This is just a snapshot alert* but look at these recent days in GB wholesale markets. Gas at ~£40MWh, power at £50-60/MWh - that power price is barely/not covering the cost of burning gas.
So what's going on?
I'm supposed to be painting, so I'll just watch one song...four songs later...
Love this, thanks for sharing.
That number will tick up quickly now that Trump has pledged US tax payers money to reinsure any vessel stupid enough to transit through the Straits.
Some British newspapers now seem more interested in pleasing American readers than reflecting British opinion.
➡️ Watch Page 94, the Private Eye podcast: youtu.be/m8kyoyGdCQY
