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Kevin Watanabe-Smith

@watanabesmith

Leukemia researcher, data scientist, unrepentant political junkie #dataviz #rstats

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02.12.2023
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Latest posts by Kevin Watanabe-Smith @watanabesmith

Also a pretty telling indictment of modern unitary executive theory

09.03.2026 17:21 ๐Ÿ‘ 10 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
A screenshot from the New York Stock Exchange website saying that America 250 is ringing the opening bell tomorrow at 6:26 a.m.

A screenshot from the New York Stock Exchange website saying that America 250 is ringing the opening bell tomorrow at 6:26 a.m.

I shit you not America 250 is ringing the opening bell at the NYSE tomorrow www.nyse.com/_events/NDE1...

09.03.2026 02:15 ๐Ÿ‘ 1560 ๐Ÿ” 367 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 118 ๐Ÿ“Œ 262
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Relevant xkcd
xkcd.com/3184/

07.03.2026 08:28 ๐Ÿ‘ 91 ๐Ÿ” 8 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3 ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

The logic has to be "surely the court only issues unsigned orders when they aren't in session right? Right? Because I surely would know if they've ever done this while in session, which sounds preposterous..."

22.02.2026 03:57 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Do not let this incredible day for American sports go by without listening to this beautiful story about Rony Seikalyโ€”DJ Rony Seikalyโ€”stepping up for Magic Johnson when he needed it the most.

19.02.2026 23:26 ๐Ÿ‘ 80 ๐Ÿ” 14 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

More people need to watch Orb

My pitch of "subtitled anime in 15th century Poland, citizens trying to prove heliocentrism while being chased by church inquisitors" always leads to glazed over eyes before I get to how phenomenal it is

18.02.2026 16:29 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Maybe training AI on decades of text from bros faking it til they making it was an error

17.02.2026 05:26 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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24.01.2026 20:34 ๐Ÿ‘ 41 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Goose chasing meme
Top frame: push alert from NBA app announcing today's Golden State vs Minnesota game has been postponed to Sunday.
Goose asks "WHY WAS THIS GAME IN MINNESOTA POSTPONED?"

Bottom frame: goose chasing human running away "WHY IS IT POSTPONED?!"

Goose chasing meme Top frame: push alert from NBA app announcing today's Golden State vs Minnesota game has been postponed to Sunday. Goose asks "WHY WAS THIS GAME IN MINNESOTA POSTPONED?" Bottom frame: goose chasing human running away "WHY IS IT POSTPONED?!"

24.01.2026 20:29 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Forrest was always, inexplicably involved or in the background of every major event or moment. So kind of a non-malicious omnipresence

24.01.2026 06:33 ๐Ÿ‘ 17 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Easy peasy, cancel Hilton honors in 3min and they even have a box for you to leave comments why

12.01.2026 03:47 ๐Ÿ‘ 7 ๐Ÿ” 5 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Jeffrey Tyner (L), Ph.D., and Melissa Stewart (R), Ph.D., led a team at OHSU that discovered a new drug combination that may help people with acute myeloid leukemia. (OHSU/Christine Torres Hicks); Both are pictured inside of a research laboratory

Jeffrey Tyner (L), Ph.D., and Melissa Stewart (R), Ph.D., led a team at OHSU that discovered a new drug combination that may help people with acute myeloid leukemia. (OHSU/Christine Torres Hicks); Both are pictured inside of a research laboratory

OHSU researchers have discovered a promising new drug combination that may help people with #AML overcome resistance to one of the most common frontline therapies.

โ€œOf the 25 drug combinations tested, venetoclax plus palbociclib was the most effective.โ€

- Dr. Melissa Stewart, lead author

05.01.2026 23:30 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Part 2 really requires you to believe the cure was a sure-fire guarantee if only they could harvest all the marrow. If you say the cure was a 15% chance then so much of the logic falls apart

26.12.2025 05:17 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Alternative to Get Out of Jail Free Card: the phantom foul. Once a series the winning team can assign 1 personal foul to an opposing player at any point in the game. No FT, clock stop or change of possession.

19.12.2025 08:16 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Tired: Blue Owl doesn't like Oracle

Wired: Blazers ownership group needs more capital than a hockey team will sell for

18.12.2025 03:40 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Preview
Larry Ellisonโ€™s big dumb gift to his large adult son Is funding his sonโ€™s dreams of media moguldom enough?

lately I have been thinking about the Paramount bid for Warner Bros. mostly I have been thinking about how it doesn't make any goddamn sense www.theverge.com/entertainmen...

16.12.2025 18:34 ๐Ÿ‘ 117 ๐Ÿ” 19 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4 ๐Ÿ“Œ 11
Will you incorporate LLMs and AI prompting into the course in the future?
No.

Why wonโ€™t you incorporate LLMs and AI prompting into the course?
These tools are useful for coding (see this for my personal take on this).

However, theyโ€™re only useful if you know what youโ€™re doing first. If you skip the learning-the-process-of-writing-code step and just copy/paste output from ChatGPT, you will not learn. You cannot learn. You cannot improve. You will not understand the code.

Will you incorporate LLMs and AI prompting into the course in the future? No. Why wonโ€™t you incorporate LLMs and AI prompting into the course? These tools are useful for coding (see this for my personal take on this). However, theyโ€™re only useful if you know what youโ€™re doing first. If you skip the learning-the-process-of-writing-code step and just copy/paste output from ChatGPT, you will not learn. You cannot learn. You cannot improve. You will not understand the code.

In that post, it warns that you cannot use it as a beginner:

โ€ฆto use Databot effectively and safely, you still need the skills of a data scientist: background and domain knowledge, data analysis expertise, and coding ability.

There is no LLM-based shortcut to those skills. You cannot LLM your way into domain knowledge, data analysis expertise, or coding ability.

The only way to gain domain knowledge, data analysis expertise, and coding ability is to struggle. To get errors. To google those errors. To look over the documentation. To copy/paste your own code and adapt it for different purposes. To explore messy datasets. To struggle to clean those datasets. To spend an hour looking for a missing comma.

This isnโ€™t a form of programming hazing, like โ€œI had to walk to school uphill both ways in the snow and now you must too.โ€ Itโ€™s the actual process of learning and growing and developing and improving. Youโ€™ve gotta struggle.

In that post, it warns that you cannot use it as a beginner: โ€ฆto use Databot effectively and safely, you still need the skills of a data scientist: background and domain knowledge, data analysis expertise, and coding ability. There is no LLM-based shortcut to those skills. You cannot LLM your way into domain knowledge, data analysis expertise, or coding ability. The only way to gain domain knowledge, data analysis expertise, and coding ability is to struggle. To get errors. To google those errors. To look over the documentation. To copy/paste your own code and adapt it for different purposes. To explore messy datasets. To struggle to clean those datasets. To spend an hour looking for a missing comma. This isnโ€™t a form of programming hazing, like โ€œI had to walk to school uphill both ways in the snow and now you must too.โ€ Itโ€™s the actual process of learning and growing and developing and improving. Youโ€™ve gotta struggle.

This Tumblr post puts it well (itโ€™s about art specifically, but it applies to coding and data analysis too):

Contrary to popular belief the biggest beginnerโ€™s roadblock to art isnโ€™t even technical skill itโ€™s frustration tolerance, especially in the age of social media. It hurts and the frustration is endless but you must build the frustration tolerance equivalent to a roachโ€™s capacity to survive a nuclear explosion. Thatโ€™s how you build on the technical skill. Throw that โ€œwonโ€™t even start because Iโ€™m afraid it wonโ€™t be perfectโ€ shit out the window. Just do it. Just start. Good luck. (The original post has disappeared, but hereโ€™s a reblog.)

Itโ€™s hard, but struggling is the only way to learn anything.

This Tumblr post puts it well (itโ€™s about art specifically, but it applies to coding and data analysis too): Contrary to popular belief the biggest beginnerโ€™s roadblock to art isnโ€™t even technical skill itโ€™s frustration tolerance, especially in the age of social media. It hurts and the frustration is endless but you must build the frustration tolerance equivalent to a roachโ€™s capacity to survive a nuclear explosion. Thatโ€™s how you build on the technical skill. Throw that โ€œwonโ€™t even start because Iโ€™m afraid it wonโ€™t be perfectโ€ shit out the window. Just do it. Just start. Good luck. (The original post has disappeared, but hereโ€™s a reblog.) Itโ€™s hard, but struggling is the only way to learn anything.

You might not enjoy code as much as Williams does (or I do), but thereโ€™s still value in maintaining codings skills as you improve and learn more. You donโ€™t want your skills to atrophy.

As I discuss here, when I do use LLMs for coding-related tasks, I purposely throw as much friction into the process as possible:

To avoid falling into over-reliance on LLM-assisted code help, I add as much friction into my workflow as possible. I only use GitHub Copilot and Claude in the browser, not through the chat sidebar in Positron or Visual Studio Code. I treat the code it generates like random answers from StackOverflow or blog posts and generally rewrite it completely. I disable the inline LLM-based auto complete in text editors. For routine tasks like generating {roxygen2} documentation scaffolding for functions, I use the {chores} package, which requires a bunch of pointing and clicking to use.

Even though I use Positron, I purposely do not use either Positron Assistant or Databot. I have them disabled.

So in the end, for pedagogical reasons, I donโ€™t foresee me incorporating LLMs into this class. Iโ€™m pedagogically opposed to it. Iโ€™m facing all sorts of external pressure to do it, but Iโ€™m resisting.

Youโ€™ve got to learn first.

You might not enjoy code as much as Williams does (or I do), but thereโ€™s still value in maintaining codings skills as you improve and learn more. You donโ€™t want your skills to atrophy. As I discuss here, when I do use LLMs for coding-related tasks, I purposely throw as much friction into the process as possible: To avoid falling into over-reliance on LLM-assisted code help, I add as much friction into my workflow as possible. I only use GitHub Copilot and Claude in the browser, not through the chat sidebar in Positron or Visual Studio Code. I treat the code it generates like random answers from StackOverflow or blog posts and generally rewrite it completely. I disable the inline LLM-based auto complete in text editors. For routine tasks like generating {roxygen2} documentation scaffolding for functions, I use the {chores} package, which requires a bunch of pointing and clicking to use. Even though I use Positron, I purposely do not use either Positron Assistant or Databot. I have them disabled. So in the end, for pedagogical reasons, I donโ€™t foresee me incorporating LLMs into this class. Iโ€™m pedagogically opposed to it. Iโ€™m facing all sorts of external pressure to do it, but Iโ€™m resisting. Youโ€™ve got to learn first.

Some closing thoughts for my students this semester on LLMs and learning #rstats datavizf25.classes.andrewheiss.com/news/2025-12...

09.12.2025 20:17 ๐Ÿ‘ 331 ๐Ÿ” 99 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 14 ๐Ÿ“Œ 31
Screenshot of Kalshi market for "which party will win the US House next year?"
Over the past week, slight separation in prices with Dems going from 73% to 77% now

Screenshot of Kalshi market for "which party will win the US House next year?" Over the past week, slight separation in prices with Dems going from 73% to 77% now

Only minor movement after TN-07 so far

03.12.2025 06:25 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Dedicate a notepad for it, or an album of your phone camera

30.11.2025 17:00 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

One of the only movies growing up that terrified me for non-obvious reasons. I think it was just the furnace and vacuum created this sense of lurking malice.

17.11.2025 19:23 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

@epmcool.bsky.social gotta send in a better track

10.11.2025 01:10 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Those look incredible, I'm jealous of the facial detail on the center one. I always end up punting on faces

31.10.2025 18:18 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Donut Land in Tualatin is also helping out!
www.instagram.com/p/DQdJsnYj7q8/

31.10.2025 16:10 ๐Ÿ‘ 7 ๐Ÿ” 1 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Wilsonville, OR #NoKings

18.10.2025 23:15 ๐Ÿ‘ 3 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Probably too late, but very comfortable with wrangling, analysis and viz using #Rstats, happy to help with this or other questions

Though my background is cancer biology, so quite distinct from this dataset

15.10.2025 16:23 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

It's so bad, my three year old walks 30ft ahead of me on the sidewalk before I say "slow down a bit bud"

27.09.2025 14:54 ๐Ÿ‘ 32 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

And as a "study Biology to disprove it" traveler, what stuck was listening to religious professors

"That progress didnโ€™t come from outsiders or even nonpracticing Muslims like me; it came from scholars, thinkers and activists who argued for the compatibility of Islam and evolution."

22.09.2025 17:26 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Opinion | Iโ€™m a former creationist. Hereโ€™s why โ€˜follow the scienceโ€™ failed. The moment I finally admitted that Darwin was right didnโ€™t feel liberating. It felt like grief.

Found this articulating a fear I've never been able to put my finger on:

"if we allow science to become just another tribe, we will be asking people to choose between their loved ones and abstract principles"
"asking them to pay an almost unimaginable price."

wapo.st/4nqIhQE (gift link)

22.09.2025 17:26 ๐Ÿ‘ 2 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Same energy tbh

10.09.2025 00:20 ๐Ÿ‘ 1 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

People focusing on the 65%, but how many *total* people would you "trust" in that definition?

I'd say the 8% is a bigger outlier, you know TWO Kevins you trust with your money? Pft, we're good

08.09.2025 18:21 ๐Ÿ‘ 0 ๐Ÿ” 0 ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0 ๐Ÿ“Œ 0