Link failed in original post for some reason: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
14.08.2025 04:09
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Link failed in original post for some reason: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
thereby highlighting that authoritarian learning is more horizontal than existing literature allows for.
Link to article is here: tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…. Should be free access. So happy to finally see this in print!
We argue that Authoritarian Regional Organisations (AROs) are crucial structures for authoritarian learning, the sharing of best practices and enhancing autocratic survival. AROs offer an opportunity for all autocratic members to bring ideas to the table,
Really excited to share that my new article, co written with @DebreMaria.bsky.social, “Developing best practices “against terrorists who protest:” Regionam organisations as learning clubs for autocracies” is out with @CSP_journal.
Was great to speak today to @BBCNews & hey the promotion came as a surprise!!
Great to be at #ICCEES2025!
So looking forward to networking & presenting. One presentation on the end of the Russian authoritarian gravity centre. The second on cognitive biases as a cause of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Already met my good friend Rasa Karmauskaite. So excited!
Holy shit
Ukraine's SBU security service now says it has attacked the Kerch bridge in occupied Crimea in a months-long operation. It says SBU agents "mined the supports" of the bridge with 1,100kg of TNT under the water line and detonated it this morning.
A big thank you to @HJS87.bsky.social as well publishing my report henryjacksonsociety.org/publications/r… on which the article for @EngelsbergIdeas.bsky.social is based.
A 🇷🇺 without Putin doesn’t guarantee peace, but a 🇷🇺 with Putin guarantees instability. For too long the West has worried about instability in 🇷🇺 when it’s is stability we must fear. A link to the article is below 👇
engelsbergideas.com/notebook/the-p….
This involves building up military capacity rapidly, supporting Ukraine & initiating the methods mentioned in the article to weaken the Kremlin. This doesn’t mean direct military confrontation but more subtle methods to weaken Putin’s power.
Already we see 🇷🇺 sabotage activities in 🇪🇺 as but one example of this confrontation. 🇪🇺 must react by taking a strong approach to counter 🇷🇺 actions through economic pressure & contesting the information space. At the same time 🇪🇺 must prepare for a day without 🇺🇸
🇷🇺 is not a status-quo power but the Kremlin seeks greater confrontation to justify holding power and the kleptocratic autocracy it has built around creating “others” & militarisation in society& politics.
Great to see my article in @engelsbergideas.bsky.social. For too long 🇪🇺 has feared 🇷🇺 instability. Rather, it should fear the stability of the Kremlin. 🇷🇺 under Putin has shown itself to be a revisionist power that requires the West as an enemy & 🇺🇦 as a conquest.
Again Putin shows that he only wants to dictate his maximalist goals that leads to 🇺🇦 surrender. Nothing really new, but allows Putin to shift the ball - & likely blame for the failure of talks - to 🇺🇦. Peskov had temerity to claim that 30-day ceasefire was “new.” www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/202...
Having seen Starmer, Macron Tusk meet with Zelensky agree on a 30 day ceasefire and then call Trump to confirm it. Putin holds an early morning presser & completely ignores the 30 day ceasefire & proclaims new talks on solving “fundamentals of the conflict.”
When: 29th April @ 6:30pm
Where: Houses of Parliament
RSVP: henryjacksonsociety.org/event/parliame…
Looking forward to present ‘Russia Reality Check: How to Destabilise the Kremlin.’
To discuss the report’s call for a bold, proactive strategy to counter 🇷🇺 influence and challenge the Kremlin’s hybrid warfare, I’ll be joined by @khodorkovsky_en, Ksenia Maximova, from @rusdemsoc & @WillForster.
Link to my piece is below 👇:
thehill.com/opinion/inte...
for what increasingly is a question if not if but when and where. Rewarding 🇷🇺 with new security architecture will not bring peace. It will show Putin he is right about Western weakness & he will look to undermine any organisation, weaken the West & have his sphere of influence.
will be rewarded. Like it or not Europe especially has to step up & start re-building its military to support 🇺🇦 but also itself. The Kremlin follows signals & Europe re-militarising would be a strong signal. This build up will never be used but would be a strong deterrent
My new piece in the @thehill @TheHillOpinion on how it would be a terrible idea to reward 🇷🇺 with changing Western security architecture & giving 🇷🇺 a seat @ the table. This would be Putin’s dream & would show that the West is weak & that taking territory & engaging in war crimes
🇪🇺 should look to send peacekeepers to🇺🇦 with tacit 🇺🇸 support & promises to buy 🇺🇸. An air shield is also needed. 🇺🇦 should explore the resource deal again even if unpalatable. A 🇪🇺 prescience in 🇺🇦 would send a strong signal to 🇷🇺. Link below: irozhlas.cz/zpravy-svet/ct…. In 🇨🇿
Honoured to have contributed to this piece by @OrosovaEliska @iROZHLAScz. NATO would still be the best option for 🇺🇦, but now Trump has taken it off the table (for now) 🇪🇺 needs to do more. Rearmament & continued support for 🇺🇦 is crucial.
Pleased to say that my new piece for @ConversationUK is out analysing how Lukashenka held onto power after exiling & jailing his opponents. Like many other things 🇺🇦 coming out of the war well will have an affect on 🇧🇾, hopefully for the better:
theconversation.com/belarus-elec...
Honoured to have written a piece in the first issue of the Belarusian Analytical Digest! @CSS_ETHZurich. I look at how the regime has developed since the 2020 protests and how the regime ensured the 2025 elections were a foregone conclusion. Link 👇
css.ethz.ch/content/dam/...
Really happy to have again been asked by @TechF24 @FRANCE24 to speak. Even better to be included in the same article with the brilliant & eloquent @jeff_hawn. Article is in 🇫🇷
www.france24.com/fr/europe/20...
The best option is still to support 🇺🇦 to be able to talk from a position of strength & this has been the biggest failing of the West!
We then discussed whether negotiations can happen. They can. But now 🇷🇺 doesn’t want them & is only interested in 🇺🇦s surrender. If negotiations do happen with Putin 🇷🇺 will do its utmost to destroy them.
Spoke with @RachelSJohnson @LBC about @Jeremy_Hunt’s statement about sending 🇪🇺troops to🇺🇦 on a demilitarised zone. Great idea but unlikely to be accepted by 🇷🇺. We discussed whether Trump can solve the war in 24 hours. Spoiler: he won’t unless he gives 🇺🇦 to 🇷🇺.
