Poll Analysis: Survation 20th – 25th of February 2026
Holyrood Seats Projection: SNP ~ 64 Labour ~ 18 Reform UK ~ 18 Conservative ~ 12 Lib Dem ~ 9 Green ~ 8
09.03.2026 17:30
👍 25
🔁 14
💬 2
📌 3
Poll Analysis: Survation 20th – 25th of February 2026
Holyrood Seats Projection: SNP ~ 64 Labour ~ 18 Reform UK ~ 18 Conservative ~ 12 Lib Dem ~ 9 Green ~ 8
SP26: Scotland’s right-wingers shouldn’t be dismissed or exaggerated
Scotland was for a long time assumed to be resolutely opposed to the right. Whilst Reform's rise overturns those prior claims, some are overcorrecting their narratives, glossing over a lingering divergence.
Right but again, the model says what the model says. When you start twiddling knobs to make a special exception here and a special exception there, it ceases to be a model and starts being vibes!
I hadn't actually realised until I did this how utterly broken the model currently thinks proportionality in North East Scotland is: 15.6% Conservative translating to 1 MSP when it should be 3, because the SNP are proportionally due 6 MSPs but are projected to win all 10 constituencies!
Per current model average, the elected Conservatives would be:
Meghan Gallacher (CSLE), Miles Briggs (ELE), Tim Eagle & Jamie Halcro Johnston (H&I), Murdo Fraser (M&F), Liam Kerr (NE), Rachael Hamilton (ERB), Craig Hoy (So) and Russell Findlay (We)
Scottish Conservative candidate lists were published today; nobody formally or informally deselected relative to 2021 results, but of the 22 sitting MSPs standing for re-election, the current BBS projection is for a whopping 13 of them to lose their seats, and no new blood to join the group.
Chat of right parties support in Holyrood polling. On the list, combined is 28.8%, Reform is 17.5%, Conservative is 11.3%. On the constituency, figures are 28.3% combined, 18.0% Reform, 10.3% Conservative.
It's weaker again at Holyrood, when relative to England & Wales Westminster polling, it's about 59 to 100. That'll partly be down to a wider Holyrood franchise capturing heavily anti-Reform demographics.
That's why the right isn't challenging for Government at Holyrood the way they are Westminster.
At the moment, for every 100 English & Welsh voters intending on voting Reform at Westminster, only 72 Scots are doing likewise. Combining with the Conservatives it's 66 for the right. That's still a lot of votes, but it's still a huge relative gulf in backing that makes a meaningful difference.
SP26: Scotland’s right-wingers shouldn’t be dismissed or exaggerated
Scotland was for a long time assumed to be resolutely opposed to the right. Whilst Reform's rise overturns those prior claims, some are overcorrecting their narratives, glossing over a lingering divergence.
Joani Reid, MP for East Kilbride and Strathaven, reported to have given up the Labour whip. That means Scottish Labour are now on 36 MPs.
Poll Analysis: Ipsos 19th – 25th of February 2026
Holyrood Seats Projection:
SNP ~ 60
Labour ~ 20
Green ~16
Reform ~ 13
Conservative ~ 10
Lib Dem ~ 10
Independence:
Yes ~ 51%
No ~ 49%
ballotbox.scot/ipsos-februa...
There is no such thing as an official opposition at Holyrood. They would get equal speaking time, an equal number of FMQs and committee conveners, and generally be treated as identical
So yes, it's entirely possible that sampling approaches that weight to past Constituency and Westminster votes will struggle to capture Green support by getting too few, or too many, Real Green supporters in their "voted SNP for whatever reason, including tactical or only choice" sample
If anything that framing is emblematic of the problem: that is a very, very small group of voters. Most Green voters are, by this point, Green supporters (see 2021 Scottish Election Study findings), parsing them as actually SNP supporters because they may cast such a constituency vote is unhelpful
Stupendous example of the importance of averaging out polls: we've got two polls out over the past 24 hours, with (almost) identical fieldwork dates, one of which has the best SNP (33%) and worst Green (9%) list shares in the current average, the other has the worst SNP (26%) and best Green (16%)!
Map of projected seats. Constituencies are 64 SNP, 2 Conservative, 2 Labour, 5 Lib Dem, 0 Green, 0 Alba, 0 Reform. Regional list seats are 0 SNP, 10 Conservative, 16 Labour, 4 Lib Dem, 8 Green, 0 Alba, 18 Reform. Lead party per region is Central and Lothians West SNP, Edinburgh and Lothians East SNP, Glasgow SNP, Highlands and Islands SNP, Mid and Fife SNP, North East SNP, South SNP, West SNP. Gallagher Index is 12.7 - a lower index means a more proportional result.
Map of projected runners up and margins. Constituency runner ups are SNP 9, Conservative 16, Labour 37, Lib Dem 4, Green 1, Reform UK 6. In percentage terms, constituency margins of victory are 6 below 5, 10 between 5 and 10, 38 between 10 and 20, 19 above 20. Closest runner up for last list seat in each region is Central and Lothians West Reform UK, Edinburgh and Lothians East Conservative, Glasgow Labour, Highlands and Islands SNP, Mid and Fife Lib Dem, North East Green, South Green, West Conservative.
Survation 20-25 Feb seat projection (vs last poll / vs 2021 on new boundaries); AMS Ideal seats:
SNP ~ 64 (+3 / +1); 48
Lab ~ 18 (nc / -3); 23
RUK ~ 18 (nc / +18); 23
Con ~ 12 (nc / -19); 15
LD ~ 9 (-1 / +5); 10
Grn ~ 8 (-2 / -2); 10
(Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)
New Scottish Parliament poll, Survation 20-25 Feb (vs 8-12 Jan):
List:
SNP ~ 33% (+5)
Lab ~ 17% (-1)
RUK ~ 17% (-1)
Con ~ 13% (nc)
Grn ~ 9% (nc)
LD ~ 9% (-2)
Constituency:
SNP ~ 37% (+3)
Lab ~ 18% (+2)
RUK ~ 17% (-2)
Con ~ 12% (-1)
LD ~ 9% (nc)
Grn ~ 6% (-2)
The list vote determines the overall shape of parliament which is why the Greens are third in seats, as they are third in votes. I think it is both most useful to show list first as a result, and also FPTP is a bad voting system and displaying it second is a tiny act of pushing back against it.
Guess which Pacific Quay based broadcaster I'm on tonight to talk about today's poll? No actual prizes for guessing, given it was an STV News poll and by this point I'm a Scotland Tonight regular - tune in at the usual time around 10.45ish!
Those are the legal names of the regions, don't look at me!
Been three for several centuries as far as I'm aware
There are two votes for the Scottish Parliament so it's pretty bad practice to only highlight one of them. Sure, folk will see the List when they click through, but that's not how social media works!
MRPs are basically bollocks
New Scottish Independence poll, Ipsos 19-25 Feb (changes vs 27 Nov - 3 Dec):
No ~ 42% (-1)
Yes ~ 43% (-4)
Don't Know ~ 13% (+4)
Excluding Don't Knows (/ vs 2014):
No ~ 49% (+1 / -6)
Yes ~ 51% (-1 / +6)
New Scotland Only Westminster poll, Ipsos 19-25 Feb (vs 27 Nov - 3 Dec):
SNP ~ 33% (nc)
Lab ~ 21% (+4)
RUK ~ 17% (-3)
Con ~ 10% (-1)
LD ~ 10% (+2)
Grn ~ 8% (-3)
Map of projected seats. Constituencies are 63 SNP, 2 Conservative, 2 Labour, 5 Lib Dem, 1 Green, 0 Alba, 0 Reform. Regional list seats are 0 SNP, 7 Conservative, 16 Labour, 5 Lib Dem, 10 Green, 0 Alba, 18 Reform. Lead party per region is Central and Lothians West SNP, Edinburgh and Lothians East SNP, Glasgow SNP, Highlands and Islands SNP, Mid and Fife SNP, North East SNP, South SNP, West SNP. Gallagher Index is 15.3 - a lower index means a more proportional result.
Map of projected runners up and margins. Constituency runner ups are SNP 7, Conservative 11, Labour 34, Lib Dem 4, Green 4, Reform UK 13. In percentage terms, constituency margins of victory are 7 below 5, 14 between 5 and 10, 35 between 10 and 20, 17 above 20. Closest runner up for last list seat in each region is Central and Lothians West Reform UK, Edinburgh and Lothians East Reform UK, Glasgow Green, Highlands and Islands Green, Mid and Fife Conservative, North East Conservative, South Conservative, West Reform UK.
Ipsos 19-25 Feb seat projection (vs last poll / vs 2021 on new boundaries); AMS Ideal seats:
SNP ~ 60 (nc / -3); 38
Lab ~ 20 (+1 / -1); 25
Grn ~ 16 (-1 / +6); 22
RUK ~ 13 (-4 / +13); 18
Con ~ 10 (-1 / -21); 14
LD ~ 10 (+5 / +6); 12
(Projection caveats: ballotbox.scot/projections)
New Scottish Parliament poll, Ipsos 19-25 Feb (vs 27 Nov - 3 Dec):
List:
SNP ~ 26% (-2)
Lab ~ 19% (+1)
Grn ~ 16% (-1)
RUK ~ 14% (-3)
Con ~ 11% (-1)
LD ~ 10% (+3)
Constituency:
SNP ~ 36% (+1)
Lab ~ 20% (+4)
RUK ~ 16% (-2)
LD ~ 10% (+1)
Con ~ 9% (-2)
Grn ~ 7% (-2)
news.stv.tv/politics/ref...
Poll Analysis: YouGov (Scoop) 11th – 18th of February 2026
Holyrood seats projection:
SNP ~ 61
Reform UK ~ 20
Green ~ 17
Labour ~ 13
Lib Dem ~ 11
Conservative ~ 7
Independence:
No ~ 54%
Yes ~ 46%
(Sorry, something odd about scheduling on BBS website atm!)
ballotbox.scot/poll-analysi...
Just shy of 6%, which is an issue with modelling really, I wouldn't actually expect them to even hit 5% because they really are just non-existent here these days, but once they are in double-digit shares nationwide models strain to believe they won't be in contention.
Well the Lib Dem list share in the poll is 10%, which is twice their 5% in 2021, and given they were already starting from a better position of 7.4% in Mid and Fife, two seats is the logical mathematical conclusion!