Hussein Ibish

Oh good

Opinion | Trump Has No Idea How to End the War With Iran

Thanks Tom Friedman‬⁩ for this in today’s NYT‬⁩:
Ibish summed up Trump’s strategy: “It goes like this: US &Israel bomb and destroy. Then (fill in the blank) Iranians will secure (fill in the blank) political change that will achieve (fill in the blank) US war aims.”
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/o...

Superb analysis from my brilliant colleague Kristin Smith Diwan:
Gulf States Play Defense
For AGSI
agsi.org/analysis/gul...

He’s hedging, yes. So is army chief Rudolph Haykal, even more ominously. He’s still worried about the army splitting and/or taking the blame for a failed disarmament initiative and perhaps renewed civil conflict.

Arab historian instrumental in revival of Palestinian national consciousness | The National After being rejected by Israeli apologists for years, his detailed works on the Nakba are now widely accepted as ahead of their time

My obituary of the GREAT Walid Khalidi,
Arab historian instrumental in revival of Palestinian national consciousness
For ⁦‪The National
www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/obit...

Exactly right

Very shaky but overdue and crucial. That even Nabih Berri supported the state and then went completely silent represents how thorough the angry consensus has become.

Opinion | Trump Has No Idea How to End the War With Iran

Thanks Tom Friedman‬⁩ for this in today’s NYT‬⁩:
Ibish summed up Trump’s strategy: “It goes like this: US &Israel bomb and destroy. Then (fill in the blank) Iranians will secure (fill in the blank) political change that will achieve (fill in the blank) US war aims.”
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/o...

No sign of it, no, except maybe in the ethnic peripheries, especially Kurdish areas. Otherwise not.

“Without boots on the ground, Mr Trump may be avoiding the biggest risks in what looks unnervingly like a national neurotic repetition compulsion”
@ibishblog.bsky.social

Something New Is Happening in Lebanon For the first time, the country’s government is directly confronting a weakened Hezbollah.

Something New Is Happening in Lebanon
For the first time, the country’s government is directly confronting a weakened Hezbollah
My latest for ⁦‪The Atlantic‬⁩
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

This is still valid, more than a month after I first wrote it

This is one of the best webinars I’ve ever moderated:

Iran War Provides Decisive Test for Lebanon to Assert Authority Over Hezbollah - AGSI After decades of tolerating Hezbollah’s warmaking independence, the current crisis has compelled Lebanese leaders to ban its military activities; this project will do much to determine the reach Iran ...

Iran War Provides Decisive Test for Lebanon to Assert Authority Over Hezbollah @ibishblog.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/ira...

Iran War Provides Decisive Test for Lebanon to Assert Authority Over Hezbollah - AGSI After decades of tolerating Hezbollah’s warmaking independence, the current crisis has compelled Lebanese leaders to ban its military activities; this project will do much to determine the reach Iran…

After decades of tolerating Hezbollah’s warmaking independence, the current crisis has compelled Lebanese leaders to ban its military activities; this project will do much to determine the reach Iran can maintain in the Arab world. @ibishblog.bsky.social

Caught in the Crosshairs, Gulf Arab Countries Remain Crucial to Peace - AGSI Though they were unsuccessful in preventing the current conflict, and, as expected, have been dragged into the U.S.-Israeli confrontation with Iran, Gulf Arab countries remain crucial to hopes for…

Though they were unsuccessful in preventing the current conflict, and, as expected, have been dragged into the U.S.-Israeli confrontation with Iran, Gulf Arab countries remain crucial to hopes for limiting the war and bringing it to a quick resolution. @ibishblog.bsky.social

Trump is putting his own spin on a Bush-style war, hoping for a Venezuela-style win | The National If Tehran's new leaders are unwilling to play ball, the governing Republican Party could pay a big price

Trump is putting his own spin on a Bush-style war, hoping for a Venezuela-style win
My latest for The National
www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comm...

Trump’s Gaza Plans Are Profoundly Unserious Conditions on the ground call for immediate humanitarian relief, not gauzy real-estate fantasies.

Trump’s Gaza Plans Are Profoundly Unserious
My latest for ⁦‪The Atlantic‬⁩
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

Of Course the UAE Is Not Preparing To Take Over Gaza - AGSI When quickly debunked rumors in the Israeli media that the UAE was seeking to manage postconflict Gaza were widely welcomed in Israel, it demonstrated both the trust the UAE has built among Israelis b...

When quickly debunked rumors in the Israeli media that the UAE was seeking to manage postconflict Gaza were widely welcomed in Israel, it demonstrated both the trust the UAE has built among Israelis but also their lack of understanding of Emirati policies and interests. @ibishblog.bsky.social

Neither Israel nor Hamas interested in phase 2 of ceasefire, researcher says

I explain to the excellent ⁦‪Mark z Owen of France 24 TV‬⁩ that neither Israel nor Hamas is sincerely interested in “Phase 2” of Trump’s non-existent ceasefire, but are both preparing to cement the very real partition and ongoing war in Gaza.
www.france24.com/en/neither-i...

Peter Gabriel - Put the Bucket Down (Bright-Side Mix) YouTube video by Peter Gabriel

Peter Gabriel is still THE MAN, bringing it here with a stunning new track:
Put the Bucket Down (Bright-Side Mix) youtu.be/WmXXYjOs4LU?... via @YouTube

With the US poised for attack, what a 'Venezuela scenario' could like in Iran | The National Depending on Trump's mood and Tehran's response, the possibilities range from regime change to rehabilitation

With the US poised for attack, what a 'Venezuela scenario' could like in Iran
My latest for The National‬⁩
www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comm...

With the US poised for attack, what a 'Venezuela scenario' could like in Iran | The National Depending on Trump's mood and Tehran's response, the possibilities range from regime change to rehabilitation

With the US poised for attack, what a 'Venezuela scenario' could like in Iran
My latest for The National‬⁩
www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/comm...

Outlook 2026: Prospects and Priorities for U.S.-Gulf Relations in the Year Ahead - AGSI On January 8, AGSI hosted a virtual roundtable with its leadership and scholars as they look ahead and assess trends likely to shape the Gulf region and U.S. foreign policy during the coming year.

Video – Outlook 2026: Prospects and Priorities for U.S.-Gulf Relations in the Year Ahead with @alfoneh.bsky.social, Tim Callen, Kristin Smith Diwan, @ibishblog.bsky.social, Abbas Kadhim, Amb. William Roebuck, Amb. Douglas Silliman, and Raymond Karam. agsi.org/events/outlo...

Peter Gabriel - Put the Bucket Down (Bright-Side Mix) YouTube video by Peter Gabriel

Peter Gabriel is still THE MAN, bringing it here with a stunning new track:
Put the Bucket Down (Bright-Side Mix) youtu.be/WmXXYjOs4LU?... via @YouTube

This was arguably the best panel we’ve held in the ten year history of @gulfstatesinst.bsky.social

Not So Wonderful Things An essay by Richard Byrne. I went to the Smithsonian Institution’s Archive of American Art on September 2, 2025. My friend and colleague Jarett Kobek asked me to do so in late August, when he saw an ...

Don’t fuck with the amazing Richard Byrne
stage-write.ghost.io/not-so-wonde...

After the Cease-Fire: The Regional Component of the Future of Gaza - AGSI On November 4, AGSI and ROPES will co-host a discussion about regional dynamics after the recent Israel-Hamas cease-fire.

"In the end, the big news was the extent to which the Arab countries put their differences aside and decided to back the same ideas. This is a very important inflection point in the ability of Arab states to work together." @ibishblog.bsky.social agsi.org/events/after...

Four Priorities for Mohammed bin Salman in Washington - AGSI When the Saudi crown prince meets President Trump in Washington, the main topics of discussion are likely to be commercial deals, a defense pact, a Saudi civilian nuclear program, and normalization…

Saudi Arabia has long sought a formula for clarifying the regional security role of the large-scale U.S. military facilities in the Gulf region, especially the significant air base in Qatar and naval headquarters in Bahrain. @ibishblog.bsky.social

The U.S.-Saudi Partnership Ahead of the Crown Prince’s Washington Visit - AGSI On November 12, AGSI will host a discussion about the U.S.-Saudi partnership ahead of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's visit to Washington.

VERY excited to be discussing “The US-Saudi Partnership Ahead of the MBS’s Washington Visit tomorrow morning with @HeshamAlghannam, @kdiwaniya,@BernardHaykel, and F. Gregory Gause, lll.
It’s another best of the best panel, for ⁦‪@GulfStatesInst‬⁩ of course.
agsi.org/events/the-u...