What I found:
- Negative effect in ALL countries
- Flexible FX rates and capital controls provide no short-run insulation!
A high frequency evidence for @helene_rey's global financial cycle: it's a dilemma, not a trilemma!
Paper ⬇️
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
The problem: The Fed announces at 2pm ET. Europe and Asia are closed. By the time Tokyo reopens, 18 hours of noise has accumulated.
My fix: use US-traded country ETFs and Bauer & Swanson MPSs.
37 countries, 20 years, 30-minute windows: R² jumped!
New Research! 💡
A surprise Fed tightening destroys $280-390 billion in foreign equity value within 30 minutes.
But traditional methods have been insufficient to capture this cleanly.
Here's how we solved the time-zone identification problem 👇
Sunset view of Christ Church's Meadow Building, with a 'Please keep off the grass' sign in the foreground and ivy climbing the walls.
View of All Souls College, Oxford, showing its ornate Gothic architecture, with ivy displaying autumnal red leaves in the foreground against a clear blue sky.
View of the Sheldonian Theatre in Oxford with its distinctive green dome, framed by nearby buildings and autumn leaves.
Autumn leaves frame the view of Magdalen College tower in Oxford under a clear blue sky.
Autumn settles over Oxford 🍂✨
📷 Instagram | ObservingOxford, EstherJohnsonPhotography, Juncao_Oxford & @magdalenoxford.bsky.social
"Foreign-born UK residents are much more likely to be of working age than the UK-born — and thus less of a fiscal burden. They tend to be healthier than the UK-born, and are much more likely to have a university degree. 75% have lived in the UK for more than 5 years and 90% speak good English."
This is also from @newyorker.com:
Is the A.I. Boom Turning Into an A.I. Bubble? www.newyorker.com/news/the-fin...
Is @economist.com trying to say something?
For those interested in full results, the paper is available here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
📢 [New Research] 📢 We tracked EVERY S&P 500 company's reaction to Fed announcements for 20 years
The Paris Climate Agreement didn't just change environmental policy—it completely flipped how Wall Street prices sustainability during rate hikes.
From -28.5bp penalty to +64.5bp protection 📈🧵
Merhaba arkadaslar :)
August = holiday season for the Bank of England @bankofengland. Their speech frequency drops to almost zero every year!
1/ 🚨 New paper! 🚨
How do the economic trajectories of children of immigrants vary across 15 high-income countries? We study intergenerational mobility of immigrants, using individual-level linked parent-child data across Europe, North America, and beyond. 🧵👇 #EconSky
Great efforts ⬇️
The Virtual Seminar on Climate Economics is finishing the year strong, with a talk by Philippe Agion from INSEAD on "Transition to Green Technology along the Supply Chain". Join us Thursday at 11am ET on Zoom!
www.frbsf.org/news-and-med...
This post is for the skeptics who think this is not me. We took this picture in front of Walmart HQ in Bentonville. The idea is to show causality--the truck ran out of gas! I am in the back and I used this picture in a lecture for execs to show the power of causality.
Oh no, my cover is blown!
j/k, thank you Fatih. Hoping this new place has more econ/ML content and fewer Joe Rogan clips.
1/ 🚨 Want to do a Phd in Economics?
besides our normal intake @gvagrad.bsky.social
we have 3 generously funded PhD positions with a 4-year
Swiss National Science Foundation packages!
Read on for details and please repost and share with potentially interested
Oxford has three terms and each term has 8 weeks. www.ox.ac.uk/admissions/u...
I’ve just realised that @stephenekhansen.bsky.social joined #econsky.
For those who work with text, data, machine learning, and monetary learned from him a lot.
sekhansen.github.io
📢CALL FOR PAPERS
The Economic Journal special issue: Climate Change and Inequality
📅Deadline: 28 February 2025
Editor: @albertobisin.bsky.social
➡️Learn more and submit: bit.ly/3YKS3lR
#EconSky
More? @paulgp.com’s guide is here to help paulgp.substack.com/p/setting-up...
Cursor/code + github > overleaf
Oxford never fails to surprise.
I have had a supervisory meeting today. I asked student about coding experience. "Yeah, kind of" he says.
Then I realised that he's one of Python core developers 🐍
:)
Bogazicinden Ceyhun hocamiz gelmis @ceyhunelgin.bsky.social #treconsky simdi daha guclu.
Screenshot of the Brexitcost website showcasing the evolution of GDP in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland since 2016 relative to a statistically constructed synthetic control.
It has always been my ambition to push economics research to work at the frontier, producing evidence as the stories unfold. Brexit is one such story. As part of the brexitcost.org project we are measuring and exploring the cost of Brexit across constituent regions in the UK. Small thread ⬇️
Textual factors combine word embedding and topic modeling in a scalable, data-driven framework for text-based predictions, variable/exposure construction, and model interpretation, from Lin William Cong, Tengyuan Liang, Xiao Zhang, and Wu Zhu https://www.nber.org/papers/w33168
Timur Kuran hoca gelmis @timurkuran.bsky.social simdi elon musk dusunsun :)
bsky.app/profile/theg...
I made a starter pack of academics doing finance research, including finance professors, financial economists, and other economists interested in finance go.bsky.app/944zQWd
