3. Someone (Reza Pahlavi) could take control during the power vacuum and start the transition. He’s already gained lots of support from Iranian diaspora oversea and has a plan.
4. Most Iran’s neighbouring countries hate the current regime and would like it to go.
Right, I think Iran does have most of the conditions here.
1. They are relatively educated among Middle East countries. Women’s illiterate rate is low.
2. People are really fed up with the current regime and want to have a regime change.
Transition to democracy is always hard.
Kosovo is another very positive example here. But more importantly I think making democracy is about justice.
I think I’m a jerk but I can be a friend with myself lmao.
For example, I don’t know if Iraq would have been better if Saddam is still ruling…Afghanistan is also much worse now.
This isn’t true. The US helped China a lot in World War II and their support for Korea/Japan/Taiwan/Singapore also turns out to be good results.
This perspective is biased in the sense that it doesn’t consider the consequences of inaction.
They are so confidently and pessimistically believe any US intervention is bad. This is my observation, maybe except Palestine. Honestly I think Iran has the condition to transition to a stable democracy if regime change happens.
Genuine attempt to make democracy and assassination of dictators are both respectable actions. The problem is that today most Americans are just isolationist. They don’t care about international politics anymore.
原帖震撼我全家。。。
When it comes to baseball and AI, Bill learns you get what you pay for.
这个智商我觉得会先被举报成五十万。
Liberal意思很广泛，中国美国语境下也不一样。
这人profile不像真的啊。。。芝加哥学派（come on。。。）经济学&金融学博士（这俩学科差得远得很。。。）
一定程度上也能理解，美国左派就算除去部分抽象人总体也很美国中心很多观点也是自相矛盾的。尤其是很多国际问题的立场也容易和我们这些极权国家的异见者相背。但是自己不懂的东西乱说，尤其是这种宏大议题，根本驾驭不了。。。
这个夸克我觉得在这些民运博主里水平算是还可以的，有一定的学习和论证能力。但在自己不是很懂的领域也喜欢瞎说，比较盲目自信。
LLM从出现第一天很多人就是这个观点，但这个极限在哪里倒也没人能说得清。甚至有不少理论上的极限都被证明了（没什么太大意义的理论），但目前事实确实是这东西发展的很快且突破了很多人的各种预期了。
这个问题不简单，热门研究方向，但发展真的很快，我觉得很少有人能很有信心说瓶颈在哪。
幻觉这个问题其实已经好很多了，LLM发展很快，几年后怎么样说不好。我的意思是这个最简单的一步确实有可能被攻克。
之前有个人说过一个词叫“民主的韧性”。今天我来说说极权的韧性。
- 哈马斯在以哈战争中被斩首几百名高层，至今还在加沙运作。
- 委内瑞拉总统马杜罗直接被“斩首”式带走，PSUV继续执政，副总统合法平稳成为代理。
- 伊朗被斩首几十个高管包括哈梅内伊，但后续估计革命卫队还是继续掌权，换个人当最高领袖。
没有地面占领，没有对原政权和体系的摧毁与民主重建，“斩首”行动似乎无法达到之前中国反贼们吹的效果。
但进步速度很快啊，要是有人专攻这个可能提高很快？
他就该被暗杀。本勇武派觉得与其像Mhedi Hassan一样当众采访羞辱他，不如直接把它毙了。
Defense Secretary Hegseth argues the goal in Iran isn't "regime change," adding this conflict is not comparable to the "endless" Iraq War https://cnn.it/47afbiv
Why not just using AI?
倒也make sense
本冷战主义者确实觉得一部分国家应该被视作恐怖组织区别对待，我觉得争议点在于哪些国家，比如以色列也应该放进去。但目前放进去的几个国家我觉得没什么问题。再直白点你要是真加入朝鲜了那美国籍是可以做废了。
虽然是傻逼MAGA的提案但确实非常合理。
墙外号也没少输出。我同意他的部分是接下来怎么发展很不好说，我看过分乐观和过分悲观的人都不少。
先观望一下，我觉得没必要过早悲观，leading to regime change有可能。
臭傻逼张泰苏说得有道理，希望伊朗人能得到属于自己的自由和民主。
